Hi all,
There’s a good card at Newbury today with the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes (3.30). Preceded by Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2.20) and the Listed Denford Stakes (1.45).
It’s also Ripon’s biggest race day of the year. The feature race of a seven- race card is Great St Wilfrid Handicap (3:45) with £75,000 in guaranteed prize money. Newmarket stages its traditional grey horse handicap (2:35) as part of a seven-race card. You can watch that race, the Great St Wilfrid, and the best of the action from Newbury on ITV4.
Let’s begin Saturday’s preview at Newbury by looking at the four races on ITV.
Newbury
1:45 – Denford Stakes (Listed Race) (formerly The Washington Singer Stakes) – 7f
Just the six go to post for this juvenile contest. Masekela heads the betting after his second to the useful Native Trail in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket. His two main rivals look to be Bayside Bay and Seattle King. Bayside Bay looked a nice prospect when winning a C&D novice on his racecourse debut last month. He’s got a fast ground action so will appreciate the drying ground. Seattle King, a son of Kingman, is bred to stay 1m 2f. He overcame greenness to win at Salisbury (good to soft) on his racecourse debut 52-days ago. The type to improve further and he does hold entries in the Royal Lodge and Dewhurst Stakes. I just wonder if 7f on quick ground may be a bit short for him.
Verdict: Hard to look beyond Masekela but not a betting race for me.
2:20 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5 ½ f
Hukum won this race last year as a 3-year-old. He’s likely to be a short-priced favourite in his bid for back-to-back wins. He won a Group 3 at York last month which means he has a 3lb penalty to give away to his seven rivals.
Three-year-old’s always must be respected in the race given the weight they get from the older horses. Since 2008, the classic generation have produced 5 winners from 21 runners 24% +4.73 10 placed 48%. There’s just one 3-year-old declared for this year’s race the Andrew Balding trained Recovery Run. A useful juvenile winning a Sandown maiden and Ayr nursery before finishing a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 behind Lone Eagle in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes on his final start of 2020. Highly tried in Group/Listed company early this season. He’s run much better on his last two starts back in handicap company. Putting in his best performance of the season when a 3-length 3rd of 13 to Nagano at Goodwood last time. He stays 1m 4f well and could stay today’s longer distance. He’s only rated 98 so needs to find plenty of improvement to beat Hukum.
Verdict: Hukum should probably be odds on here and will take all the beating in this company. Recovery Run could get in to the money given the record of 3-year-olds in the race.
2:55 – BetVictor Handicap (Class 3) – 7f
Aratus showed the benefit of wind surgery when comfortably winning a Doncaster novice 23-days ago. He was keen in the early stages of the race but was still able to produce a telling to foot to win. He’s open to plenty of improvement for his handicap debut but needs to settle better than he did at Doncaster.
Sunset Bay bids for a hat trick after wins over C&D and at Sandown 24-days ago. She seemed to relish the quick ground last time and although she’s been raised 9lb for her latest success she’s going the right way and could be capable defying the weight rise.
Ajyaall bounced back from a below par run on soft ground when a 3-length 5th of 17 at York (1m) last time. The drop back to 7f should suit the speedily bred gelding and there’s a chance we haven’t seen the best of the 4-year-old yet.
Jack’s Point hasn’t cut much ice on his three starts for new trainer Tom Clover this season. However, he looks well treated on the best of last year’s form when runner-up to Motakhayyel in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot. Laura Pearson takes off a handy 3lb and there’s a decent chance the 5-year-old could get an uncontested lead.
Verdict: Aratus could be well head of his mark on his handicap debut but can’t afford to pull as hard as he did last time. Sunset Bay is an improving filly and has good chance of landing the hat trick. There could still be more to come from Ajyaall and Jack’s Point is nicely treated on his best form and has each way claims if the eight run.
1pt each way – Jack’s Point – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:30 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
Eleven stand their ground for the day’s feature race. Al Suhail heads the betting. The 4-year-old shaped with promise on his first run since a gelding operation when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 9 in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot last month. He’s back at 7f for the first time since he was a 2-year-old. He takes on a couple of 7f specialists in Danyah and Motakhayyel.
Danyah won the 7f International Stakes (Handicap) at Ascot last time. He found plenty for pressure to hold off his rivals that day and looks worth his place in pattern company for the first time.
Motakhayyel finished 3 lengths back in 6th behind Danyah last time. Prior to that he had easily won the Bunbury Cup for the second successive year under top weight of 9-10. There shouldn’t be much between the pair here but Jim Crowley opts for Danyah.
Dreamloper improved when winning a Group 3 over a mile against her own sex at Ascot last time. Will likely need to improve again to win this better race and she will appreciate a strong gallop for a drop back to 7f.
Sacred a useful 2-year-old won the Nell Gwyn on her seasonal reappearance but her stamina tan out when only 7th in the 1,000 Guineas. First run since the first fillies’ classic, 7f looks her trip and she can’t be ruled out for the inform William Haggas yard.
Laneqash is an interesting runner. The 3-year-old makes a belated seasonal reappearance. He looked a useful prospect when winning at Ascot on his racecourse debut and was undone by inexperience when a head second in a Doncaster Listed contest. Beaten favourite when finishing last on heavy ground in the Group 3 Horris Hill over C&D when last seen in action. Not sure what has kept him off the track though and Jim Crowley is on Danyah.
Stablemate Line Of Departure was outclassed in the July Cup and isn’t a certain stayer. This is Njord’s trip but he would likely prefer softer ground.
Verdict: I want to take on likely favourite Al Suhail on his drop back to 7f. Danyah put in a career best effort when winning at Ascot last time and deserves his place in Group company. Motakhayyel gets 6lb from Danyah and is very much in the mix. Sacred is interesting back at 7f and can’t be ruled out on a sound surface.
1pt win – Sacred – 6/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power
Ripon
3:10 – William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) (Class 2) – 7f
Ghathanfar a winner at Redcar in April has remained in good form since without winning. Arguably putting in a career best when a neck 3rd of 19 at York. The winner Capote’s Dream and runner-up Mr Wagyu have since won again. He’s been nudged up another 2lb but has good draw in stall 20 and should get a good tow into the race. First run at Ripon for the 5-year-old.
Fortamour took advantage of a drop in the weights when winning over C&D 12-days ago. This is a deeper race but he remains on a good mark, 4lb below when winning at Ascot last September, and should go well from stall 4 provided the ground doesn’t ease too much.
Citron Major, twice a C&D winner, finished runner-up to Saxton here on his seasonal reappearance but then disappointed on his next five starts. The 6-year-old took advantage of a declining mark when winning at York 22-days ago. He’s up 4lb but has won off higher marks in the past.
Mythmaker returned from six-month layoff, to finish a 3½ lengths 7th of 13 to Citron Major at York last time. He’s got a 6lb pull in the weights with the winner today and an apprentice takes off a further 7lb. The 9-year-old was beaten less than 3 lengths in the Great St Wilfrid in 2016. Not without a chance from a stall 19 and the yard came out of a quiet spell with a winner at Beverley on Thursday.
Mark’s Choice goes well at the track, winning four times, including three over C&D. The last of those wins came in April off 2lb higher. Has been well below his best on his three starts though. Has had wind surgery since his last run 20-days ago.
Giorgio Vasari was a speedy juvenile when with Aidan O’Brien but his form tailed off in the second half of last season. Now with Derek Shaw he didn’t show much on his first start for the yard 25-days ago but the first-time visor is applied here and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is an eyecatching on.
Verdict: I do likeFortamour here but it all depends on his low draw. Of those drawn high I like the claims of the consistent Ghathanfar and Mythmaker who has each way claims.
1pt win – Fortamour – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt each way – Mythmaker – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:45 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Mr Wagyu, twice a C&D winner so no fears over the track for him. He’s been in the form of his career this year and last time out comfortably won the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race. He is 8lb higher now but goes from strength to strength and another big performance can’t be ruled out.
Staxton won the race 12 months ago. off 4lb lower but he’s also won off just 1lb lower over C&D in April. Finished one place and ½ length behind Mr Wagyu in the Scottish Stewards Cup two starts back and gets a 9lb pull with that one on Saturday. However, he was 7 lengths behind his old rival at Goodwood. Back here expect things to be much closer as his C&D form figures are 235111.
Lampang, a stablemate of Staxton, won over C&D as a juvenile. He’s shown enough this season to think he’s on a winnable mark when all the cards fall right. Not had the best of luck with draw in both the Wokingham & Stewards Cup but should get a good tow into the race from stall 2.
Intrinsic Bond an easy winner at Catterick two starts back wasn’t disgraced off a 10lb higher mark when beaten a neck by Fortamour over C&D 12-days ago. Could have a good draw on the stands rail but his best form has come with some juice in the ground.
Embour has dropped to 3lb below his last winning mark. Finished well behind Mr Wagyu at Goodwood but that run is best forgiven as it was on soft ground and he’s better on a sound surface. Much better last time from the 6-year-old when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 6 at Musselburgh 8-days ago. A central draw isn’t ideal but he’s competitively weighted with Lampang on their running at Hamilton in June and isn’t of this.
Soldier’s Minute a useful handicapper on turf and smart on the all-weather. Last season he finished a 2-length 4th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup, off 4lb higher, and before that was a close-up second in a big field at York. Just two low key starts this season. First run at Ripon but if he handles the track he’s back down to a competitive mark. Best form on grass has come on good or quicker going.
Verdict: It would be a brave punter who rules out Mr Wagyu after his recent Goodwood success.but he is 8lb higher. Last year’s winner Staxton looks primed for another big run as does stablemate Lampang. Both Soldier’s Minute and Embour are good marks if their middle draws don’t prove an inconvenience. Of those drawn high Intrinsic Bond should get a good tow into the race from Abate and Gale Force Maya.
1pt win – Staxton – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Embour – 18/1 @ Sky Bet (paying 7 places 1/5 odds) or 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places)
Newmarket
2:35 – MansionBet Beaten By A Head Grey Horse Handicap (Class 4) – 6f
My Style was a close-up 3rd in this race in 2019 and won it last year, off 2lb higher. At his best on good ground or better so underfoot conditions are in his favour. This has likely been the 5-year-old’s seasonal target and he shaped with encouragement when 4th of 10 behind one of today’s rivals Devil’s Angel over C&D last time. Gets 4lb from the winner for a 2 ½ length beating. That was Devil’s Angel first win on turf, four wins on the all-weather, and he’s only 3lb higher here another big run can be expected from the 5-year-old. Mitrosonfire a winner twice in June returned to winning ways at the Shergar Cup last Saturday. The 3-year-old is only 1lb higher here and Stefano Cherchi takes off a handy 3lb.
Verdict: Not a big field for this year’s grey horse handicap but it’s a competitive heat. Last year’s winner My Style is a big contender. Devil’s Angel and Mitrosonfire are last time out winners and won’t be far away again.
1pt win – Devil’s Angel – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John