Hi all,
Day four of what’s turning out to be a tough Punchestown Festival on the betting front.
Punchestown
4:20 – A 2m 5f novices’ handicap chase. A field of 12 are declared to go post which could well be decided by the weather. On Thursday the going was starting to dry out, but rain has been forecast so a lot could depend on how much of the wet stuff hits the track before the race.
Real Steel, trained by Willie Mullins, looks set to head the betting. He’s won two of his five starts over fences. The 6-year-old then struggled but wasn’t disgraced when only 6th of 10 in the Grade 1, JLT Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. He then ran stablemate Voix Du Reve to 5 ½ lengths in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse. That was a good performance although he probably needs to improve again to win this off his mark.
Hardline, beat Getabird in a Grade 1 at Limerick on Boxing Day. The 7-year-old hasn’t run to that level of form on two subsequent starts. Including when sent off the 100/30 favourite for the Arkle Novices’ Chase on his last start. He was never really travelling during that race and eventually finished a well beaten 7th. Top weight of 11-10 isn’t going to be easy to overcome but the step back up distance should suit him.
Poker Party, has been improving with racing in handicap chases and has won his last two starts at Naas. Up 10lb for the last of those wins. He needs to progress further to win this which of course is a definite possibility. First start for 68-days but he looks sure to run well.
De Name Escapes Me, has been failing to get home over 3m. The drop back to 2m 5f will be in the 9-year-old favour but he remains 13lb higher than for his last win at Navan over 2m 4f back in December.
Louis’ Vac Pouch, put in a much improved performance to run the useful Secret Investor to 3 ¾ lengths in a Grade 2 at Ayr. Whether that improved performance came due to the quick ground last time? We shall find out today, but the 7-year-old has won on soft ground over hurdles and has form going right-handed. If he runs to his Ayr form, then he looks on a competitive mark and looks capable of going close.
Beyond the Law, finally got off the mark over fences at the ninth attempt when winning a Cork beginners chase 12-days ago. Looks held by Poker Party on their running at Naas back in February but he’s improving with experience over the larger obstacles. The drier the ground the better his chance. Still he looks overpriced at around 14/1 for trainer ‘Mouse’ Morris.
Verdict: If English raider Louis’ Vac Pouch runs as well as he did at Ayr he can go well. Preference though is for the progressive Poker Party and the Beyond The Law who’s improving with each run over fences.
Poker Party – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Beyond The Law – 14/1 – Gen
4:55 – A 2m 5f Mares only handicap chase.
Timeforwest won a 3m Cork Grade 3 chase on her last start 12 day ago. Talking that form literally the 7-year-old is an improving mare who’s in foal. A useful 7lb conditional has been booked for the ride so she’s capable of big run.
Moyhenna won a soft ground Grade 2 novices’ chase at Limerick 47-days ago. The 7-year-old is at her best on soft ground, so her chance is enhanced if the rain arrives.
Ask Susan, trained by Willie Mullins, returned from a 212-day break when finishing 6th of 16 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse. Came in for plenty of support that day on what was her debut for the trainer. Returns to the larger obstacles today and looks competitively weighted on the best of her form off a mark of just 123. Looks the one to beat but maybe a better on a sound surface.
Ask Susan – 3/1 – Gen
5:30 – Melon – Has yet to win a Grade 1 Hurdle but surely, he can win one and his trainer Willie Mullins thinks he can. The 7-year-old has twice finished runner-up in the Champion Hurdle. He fell in this race last year three out when closing on the leader and was still going well enough in the lead when falling three out at Aintree 29-days ago.
Melon – 7/1 – Gen
6:05 – Royal Rendezvous – Another winner for Willie Mullins? Well Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle City Island will be a tough nut to track but Royal Rendezvous is highly regarded by Willie Mullins who has described him as a “horse with a bright future”. The 7-year-old has won his last three starts over hurdle in a spell between August & October of last year. A very easy winner when winning at Galway 188-days ago. Looks worth chancing each-way at a big price.
Royal Rendezvous – 14/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way
7:45 – Longhouse Poet, trained like City Island by Martin Brassil. The 5-year-old was an easy winner of a point to point back in January under today’s jockey Derek O’Connor and is fancied to making a winning debut under rules today.
Longhouse Poet – 9/2 @ Bet365
Eyecatcher
We have a recent eyecatcher running at Musselburgh today.
Musselburgh
2:25- Abel Handy – The 4-year-old made a pleasing return to action when sent off the 5/2 favourite for a Newmarket handicap 15-days ago. He’s a well-handicapped horse and looks nicely drawn for a prominent runner in stall 12 on the nearside rail. Top weight here but has been dropped 2lb since Newmarket and can now race in Class 4 company.
Abel Handy – 10/3 @ William Hill
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John