Hi all,
Makanah got within a short head of a a very much back to form Mokaatil and the market certainly knew that the latter was coming back to his best.
It’s Shergar Cup Day at Ascot. The period between Goodwood and York Ebor Meeting has always been about low-grade racing. Hence the invention of the Shergar Cup to fill in on a Saturday.
ITV are covering all six races from the Shergar Cup plus two races from Haydock and one from Newmarket this afternoon.
Punters need to be on weather watch again tomorrow. It looks like light rain showers for both Ascot and Newmarket but potentially very heavy thundery showers for Haydock.
Haydock’s going description went from good to firm to soft on Friday so if the forecast rain does arrive it could be heavy on Saturday.
The going at Newmarket on Friday evening was good and it will probably be the same tomorrow.
Ascot is also being officially described as good. I would expect that be the same on Saturday although more rain than forecast and we’ll see easier ground.
I’m going to work on the assumption that the going at both latter tracks stays broadly the same.
The forecast weather for Haydock means for the for the very first time I have looked at the Shergar Cup card. I have also looked at the three other races on ITV this afternoon.
Ascot
12:50 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
Stone Of Destiny loves to come off a strong pace and is well suited to a stiff 5f. He won this race 12 months ago off 6lb lower. He hasn’t won this season but has been running well, finishing a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 16 in the Epsom Dash and has been running with credit in Group company on his last three starts. Top-weight but has a touch of class and Andrew Balding has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2011.
1pt win – Stone Of Destiny – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:25 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m
Uber Cool made a winning return to action over 1m 5 ½ f at Chester in May. The 7-year-old has been off the track for 32 months so in the circumstances it was a fine training performance. Has been given a 70-day break and is up 5lb for his Chester win. Could more to come returned to 2m.
Call My Bluff won three times last season and has improved again this season and comes into the race having won his last two at Nottinghan & Chester. The 4-year-old has been raised 3lb for his last win but seems certain to run his race again.
Indiananpolis is a on a losing run that goes back to October 2019. He’s run several good races this season and he stays 2m well enough as he showed last August when a 2 ¾ length 4th of 17 at York and is now 11lb lower. Won the 1m 4f handicap at the Shergar Cup for his previous trainer.
1pt win – Indiananpolis – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:00 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (Class 3) – 1m 4f
Sam Cooke isn’t the most reliable of handicappers but he was beaten a nose, off 2lb higher, over C&D last July. Plenty of encouragement from his 4th of 12 at Chester last time.
Spanish Kiss a winner at York and Newmarket this season. Wasn’t ideally placed on his hat trick bid when a 2 ½ length 5th of 9 here over 1m 6f last time. Handles good to soft ground and maybe suited by a drop back to a decently run 1m 4f. Has only had three starts on the grass so remains capable of better.
Graphite has fared better on both his starts since stepping up to 1m 4f. Last time out was he finished runner up to Duke Of Condicote at Newmarket. Up 2lb but remains on a competitive looking mark and did win on easy ground when trained in France.
1pt win – Graphite – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:35 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
Dance Fever put in a career best effort when a ½ length 3rd of 19 in the valuable International Handicap here over 7f two weeks ago. Stays a mile and will be tough to beat but the ground won’t be as quick as last time.
Dashing Roger had looked as good as ever when winning at Sandown two starts back and improved again when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 12 to Johan at Salisbury, with recent easy Goodwood winner Migration back in 4tt. Up another 1lb for that effort but won’t far away here.
One of the reserves, Power Of Darkness is a previous C&D winner. He’s dropped down to a competitive mark but he may need quicker ground to exploit it.
Revich was back to his best when a ½ length 2nd of 8 at Chester on Sunday. Can race off the same mark here.
Raising Sand love’s Ascot’s straight track. The 9-year-old hasn’t won since landing the 2019 International Stakes Handicap here over 7f. He’s now 6lb below his last winning mark and wasn’t disgraced from a moderate draw when a 4 ½ length 8th of 19 in that race two weeks ago. The more rain the better and he’s become temptingly handicapped.
Bear Force One returned from 3 month lay off to finish a respectable 4th of 8 at Doncaster 7-days ago. Didn’t seem to stay 1m 3f there and will be better suited by a strongly run mile. Yard among the winners and the 5-year-old won on good to soft at Newbury last summer.
1pt win – Dashing Roger – 9/2 @ Coral & BetVictor
3:10 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (Class 3) – 1m 4f
There was just a short head between Possible Man and State Of Blisswhen the pair were first and second at Nottingham (1m 2f) last month.
Possible Man looked an improver that day and could well stay today’s extra two furlongs. It was good to firm that day so softer ground be a bit of an unknown for him.
State Of Bliss has improved again since to finish a neck behind Wink Of An Eye at Goodwood 8-days ago. He’s now finished runner-up on his three starts and shouldn’t be far away again.
Star Calibar went off too hard here over 2m last time Drop back to 1m 4f might be a positive but he faces competition for the lead here from the likes of State Of Bliss. Likely remains on a good mark if he settles and the trainer won this in 2018.
The likely strong pace could suit Contact who won at Pontefract (good to soft) two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when upped in class and distance at Haydock last time. Seemed to handle soft ground at Haydock and is one to be interested in with the race likely to be run to suit.
1pt win – Contact – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Royal Scimitar an eyecatcher when a strong finishing ½ length 4th of 17 at Newmarket (good to firm) 30-days ago. He appreciated the return to sprinting that day and has a big chance here of 2lb higher. The key to his chance though will be the ground. He withdrawn from the Stewards Cup on account of the soft ground last Saturday and needs good or quicker ground to be at his best.
Popmaster finally got his head in front when winning at Doncaster last Saturday. Seemed fine on the good to soft ground there. Up 5lb but he’s an inform sprinter going the right way.
Shark One Two put in a seasonal best when a 2-length 3rd of 9 at Goodwood 7-days ago. The drop back to 6f should suit. He’s on a winnable mark but probably wouldn’t want the ground worse than good to soft.
Dream Composer, a 6f winner at Kempton two starts back put in a career best effort when a length 4th of 19 here over 5f at Royal Ascot. The way he was finishing his race off last time suggests he will be suited by a return to 6f. He’s only been raised 1lb and remains progressive.
1pt win – Dream Composer – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Haydock
3:35 – British Stallion Studs EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m
Three non-runners already on account of the changed going. It’s hard to say which of these fillies will be suited by the testing ground. Passionova made a winning turf debut at Newmarket (good to firm) 44-days ago. Lightly raced she’s steps up to mile for the first time here, should stay, and if she goes on the ground can go close.
4:10 – MansionBet Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
All nine still stand their ground for arguably the best race of the day. Real World winner of the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot before following up in Listed company at Newbury last time. Suited by the step up to 1m 2f at Newbury and looks a Group 1 horse in the making. Both wins have come on quick ground but his pedigree offers hope that he will handle softer.
Extra Elusive got a good ride from Hollie Doyle to win this 12 months ago and followed up in a Group 3 at Windsor on his next start. Handled heavy ground at Windsor so underfoot conditions shouldn’t hold any terrors for the 6-year-old. Hasn’t been at his very best on either start so far this season but this has likely been the plan and the trainer Roger Charlton has his horses in much better form than when he was last in action.
Euchen Glen is in the form of his career and looks likely to get the strong pace that suits him so well. Came from behind to finish a neck second in a Group 3 at Goodwood 8-days ago. Goes well on testing ground and his stamina is assured, stays 2m.
Foxes Tales seemed to relish soft ground when winning a 1m 2f handicap at Royal Ascot and improved again when a head 2nd of 10 at Newmarket (good to firm) last time. He finished nicely clear of the third that day and looks worth his place back in pattern company.
Stormy Antarctic is another well suited by soft ground. A winner of a Listed race at Goodwood when last seen in action 77-days ago. The rain has come at the right time for the 8-year-old and he hails from the very much in form Ed Walker stable.
1pt win – Extra Elusive – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Newmarket
2:50 – 100% Racingtv Profits Back To Racing Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Wild Beauty was no match for Inspiral, arguably the best juvenile filly we have seen so far this season, at Sandown last time. Still, she was a clear second best that day. Best form on offer and could be capable of more improvement. Both her career wins have come on soft ground.
Mark Johnson has won this race three times since 2014. He saddles Value Theory who won a C&D novice three weeks ago. She’s open to further progress and must be respected given her trainers record in the race.
Majestic Glory, seems to be coming along nicely. The daughter of Frankel made all to win over 6f here 8-days ago. The step up to 7f can bring out further improvement given her dam won over 1m 2f.
Victoria Grove shaped with promise when a 3 ½ lengths 4th of 8 behind Inspiral on her racecourse debut over C&D in June. Ran green when asked for her effort two furlongs out but once she hit the rising ground she stayed on nicely. Big ask to win this on just her second career start but is open to improvement and could get into the money.
1pt each way – Victoria Grove – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John