Hi all,
The final day of Qatar Goodwood Festival but there are still two days left at Galway. ITV are once again covering the first five races from Goodwood and they add two races from Newmarket to their Saturday afternoon racing coverage.
The emphasis today is on the handicappers with the highlight being one of the biggest betting races of the summer flat season the Unibet Stewards’ Cup (3:40).
I have looked at four races at Goodwood and one at Galway.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 5
1:20 – Thames Materials Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Quintillus the likely favourite is now a non-runner.
Star Of Bermuda bids for the hat-trick after wins at Leicester and latterly Newmarket three weeks ago. Up just 2lb which looks fair and she did win at this meeting 12 months ago on her racecourse debut. Might be at her best on a sound surface though.
Farasi Lane is fine on an easy surface and was only beaten a short head over C&D in May. Ran as well as ever when winning a Sandown handicap 28-days ago. Up 5lb for that win but has handy low draw in stall 2. Two from two in the cheekpieces and they are retained here.
Just Frank has been knocking on the door in handicaps on his last two starts. Stall 10 could be better for a likely front runner but he should continue to give his running and should be in the mix again. The first time cheekpieces could eke out that bit of improvement to win.
Verdict: I’m taking on Star Of Bermuda. Just Frank is knocking on the door and Farasi Lane has good draw and goes well with some juice in the ground. Just Frank is another who goes well on soft ground and is interesting in the first-time headgear,
1pt win – Farasi Lane – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Just Frank – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:55 – Unibet Stewards’ Sprint Handicap – 6f
The Stewards Cup consolation race and twenty-eight have been declared for this year’s race. Looking at the pace map most of it looks down the middle.
Music Society was beaten a nose in the Scottish Stewards and continued in tremendous form when beaten a short head by Venturous at York last Saturday. He’s 8lb well in here and has a big chance if in the same form as last time. Not sure about stall 2 though.
Stablemate Staxton was 1 ¼ lengths behind Music Society in the Scottish Stewards Cup He would have finished a bit closer as he didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong. Looks to be heading into form and William Buick is an eyecatching jockey booking for the 6-year-old. Not sure he wants the ground too soft but handles good to soft well enough.
Royal Scimitar was a big eyecatcher returned to 6f when a ½ length 4th of 17 at Newmarket last time. Can race off the same mark here but ground any softer than good would be an unknown for the 3-year-old.
Power Over Me put in an impressive display when first past the post at Epsom 30-days ago but was subsequently disqualified after the jockey weighed in 2lb light. A five-time winner all-weather he showed last time that he could be effective on turf. Up 5lb but he remains progressive and is unexposed on grass.
First Folio beat a subsequent handicap winner in a valuable 6f York handicap last time. He’s up 8lb but more of a concerned would be an easy surface as he bounced off quick ground at York
Boundless Power was in excellent form over 5f and soft ground in the spring winning small field handicaps at Nottingham. Not disgraced when 5th of 18 at Ascot three weeks ago. Was doing his best work at the finish that day, so today’s extra furlong should suit he and remains on competitive mark.
Bickerstaffe put in a career best when winning at Ascot (good to soft) 22-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry here but looks to be going the right way.
Treacherous won this last year, off 3lb lower. Not out of this and the 7-year-old hasn’t shaped to badly this season.
Jim Goldie trained Tommy G to win this in 2018 so his runner Be Proud can’t be totally dismissed at big odds with Danny Tudhope booked for the ride.
Ruth Carr trained Poyle Vinnie to win this in 2019 and she saddles Embour here. The 6-year-old has placed form C&D for his previous trainer and is 1lb below his last winning mark. Could get in to the places at big odds.
Verdict: First Folio would prefer quicker ground, as could recent eyecatcher Royal Scimitar. Boundless Power won’t mind ease in the ground and Silvestre De Sousa is a good booking. Music Society is in great form and is respected. Power Over Me goes well on a downhill track. Bickerstaffe is an improving 3-year-old, goes well on soft ground and is drawn high.
1pt win – Power Over Me – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Bickerstaffe – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:30 – Summer Handicap – 1m 6f
Prince Alex has switched from Ralph Beckett to Michael Bell, A big improver last season winning his last five starts. Plenty of promise on his seasonal reappearance at Salisbury and then ran Nuits St Georges to head over C&D. Not at his best at Newmarket but better judged on his soft ground C&D form.
Nuits St Georges really likes soft ground and followed up his C&D win when making all to win at Salisbury last time. Up 5lb and won’t find it easy to give 6lb to Prince Alex here.
Sir Michael Stoute saddles a couple of live contenders in My Frankel & Boss Power. Boss Power looked an improving performer when winning at Kempton last month. Must show he can replicate that form on soft ground and over 1m 6f. My Frankel a winner at Kempton on his reappearance put in a personal best when 3rd of 12 in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock last time. It was soft at Haydock and he appreciated the decent gallop that day. Could improve for his start beyond 1m 4f.
Win O’clock goes well on soft and finished a neck in front of My Frankel in the Old Newton Cup. Yard’s runners going well and remains on a competitive mark
On To Victory won a soft ground November Handicap last season, 5lb higher here. Ran the useful Hukum to 1 ½ lengths in a Listed contest here in May. Stays 1m 6f but probably needs softer ground but if he gets it the top-weight isn’t handicapped out of this.
Rhythmic Intent did well on easy ground last season winning at York & Newbury and finished 1 ½ lengths behind On To Victory when runner-up in the November Handicap. Bounced back to his best, after a couple of low-key runs, when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 11 at Sandown 28-days ago. Not a bad effort considering it was over 1m 2f and he’s better over further. Needs the ground to ease further.
Future Investment was beaten a nose at Ascot over today’s distance. Up 2lb and is another on a workable mark if in the same form as last time.
Bodyline makes his seasonal reappearance. He should win races this year but maybe be better for the run and probably wants a sound surface. One to note with the Ebor Handicap in mind.
Verdict: This a tough puzzle to solve. Prince Alex is on a good mark but the switch in stable concerns me. Nuits St Georges is tough and goes well here. My Frankel looks the pick of the Stoute pair. On To Victory goes well here and if the rain arrives, he won’t be inconvenienced. Likewise Rhythmic Intent goes well with ease in the ground and could be about to hit winning form. Win O’Clock is on a competitive mark and the yard is in great form.
1pt win – My Frankel – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
1pt win – Rhythmic Intent – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:40 – Unibet Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
The pace looks to be both low and high but most of the fancied horses seem to be drawn to towards the middle. They could split into two groups.
Fresh is up 3lb for finishing a neck 2nd of 21 in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. Capable of going close again if handling this sharper 6f.
Chiefofchiefs was 1 ¼ lengths behind Fresh when 4th in the Wokingham last time. Likes a big field handicap but this track may not play to his strengths like Ascot does. Yard also runs Ejtilaab who is having his first start since a stable switch. Has been in great form since dropping to 6f. Won on the tapeta at Newcastle last time and although he’s up 8lb here could be still on the upgrade. Showed he was effective in downhill track when winning at Epsom two starts back.
Hurricane Ivor dead heated at Sandown over 5f two starts back and improved again when a short head 2nd of 18 at Ascot over the minimum trip. Up just 1lb here and will be suited by a sharp 6f. Can win a big handicap pot when everything falls right.
Lampang was second best of those who ran in the unfavoured stands side in the Wokingham Handicap. Prior to that he had won at Hamilton off 3lb lower. Not out of this but maybe better in smaller fields.
Great Ambassador’s best form has come on the all-weather (0-6 on turf) but shaped like he would be suited by a big field scenario when coming from behind to finish a 3 ¾ length 3rd of 7 behind Chil Chil at Newmarket back in May. Likely needs good or quicker ground, was pulled out of the Wokingham on account of soft ground.
Bielsa can win this but isn’t the most reliable. Didn’t stay 7f at Royal Ascot last time and is better judged on his nose 2nd of 16 behind Punchbowl Flyer at Haydock two starts back. Won’t mind if the rain arrives and Osin Murphy takes the ride.
Summerghand won this 12 months ago off today’s mark. Won the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket in April. Outclassed in the Group 1 July Cup last time. Vulnerable to better handicapped horses but likes to come off a strong pace and not of I if reproducing last year’s performance,
Atalanta’s Boy loves C&D but isn’t one to trust. Can be slowly way, as he was when well fancied for this last year and when pulled up at Windsor last time. Apart from last year’s run in the race he’s 4-4 over C&D and if in going mood can go close.
Justanotherbottle was beaten a short head in this in 2018. Won the Catterick Dash over 5f last October off 2lb higher. On a competitive mark on his best form and could get into the money.
Verdict: Both Fresh and Hurricane Ivor are high on the shortlist with a slight preference for the latter Great Ambassador should be suited by the pace of the race but needs good or quicker ground. Summerghand has a lively chance of back-to-back wins in the race. The Charlie Fellowes pair of Chiefochiefs & Ejtilaab are in the mix but the downhill track may suit the latter more. Bielsa normally gets backed for these sorts of races and has a big performance in him.
1pt win – Hurricane Ivor – 6/1 – Gen
1pt each way – Bielsa – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Galway
4:20 – Galway Shopping Centre Handicap – 1m 4f
Camorra improved on easy ground last autumn when winning at Leopardstown in October and then finished a neck 2nd of 16 in the Irish November Handicap (1m 6f) on his final start of 2021. Low key return at Gowran Park in April. Has been a 114-day break since that run and gets the first-time blinkers for the drop back to 1m 6f. Capable of better but may want softer ground.
Iowa is the only 3-year-old in the field and although he might want quicker ground, he’s handicapped to go close if he gets it.
In From The Cold seems to stay 1m 4f and comes into this in form, finishing a 3¾ lengths fourth of 18 to Sirjack Thomas in a Premier Handicap here over an extended 1m on Tuesday. He was strong at the finish and goes well on soft ground.
Baby Zeus returned from a nine month lay off to run out an impressive winner of a 1m 2f Premier Handicap at the Curragh on Guineas weekend. Never got into the race from the rear when well beaten at Leopardstown on his next start off 9lb higher. The ground was soft/heavy at the Curragh and much quicker at Leopardstown. Willie Mullins is having a great festival and is 4 winners from 8 runners in the race since 2015. Looks on a good mark if bouncing back.
Verdict: Camorra may prove to be better over a bit further but the first-time blinkers make him of interest. In From The Cold ran a cracker here earlier in the week and his course from is a big plus. Baby Zeus looked like a potential Group horse when winning at the Curragh. He ran to bad to be true last time and is worth another chance here.
1pt win – Baby Zeus – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Comorra – 10/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – In From The Cold – 9/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John