Hi all,
Friday’s Nap Commanche Falls went in for a profitable Friday.
After last Saturday’s “wall to wall” action its lesser fare this week. The big race of the weekend is the Juddmonte Irish Oaks (3:25). The race has attracted a disappointingly small and uncompetitive field. Epsom Oaks winner Snowfall is a long odds’ on for the race which underlines the view that this year’s middle distance fillies Snowfall apart are a poor bunch.
The Irish Oaks at the Curragh is part of an eight-race programme on ITV Racing which also includes the best of the action from Newbury & Market Rasen.
The Newbury card features the Group 3 bet365 Hackwood Stakes (3.00) and the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (3.40). The highlight of the Market Rasen card is the Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (2:40).
Newbury
1:50 – bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 1m 2f
Real World quickened clear for his rivals to comfortably win the Royal Hunt Cup (1m) at Royal Ascot last time. It was a performance, on his turf debut, that marked down the 4-year-old has capable of holding his own on Group company. Won at Chelmsford over 1m 2f last autumn so the step up in trip shouldn’t be a problem and his Ascot win came on good to firm.
Solid Stone is consistent enough in this grade although he might be better over slightly shorter.
Movin Time beat subsequent Queen’s Vase winner Kemari at Newmarket on his seasonal return. Only 5th of 9 behind Mohaafeth in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. Ran better than his final position suggests last time, those who ran close to the strong early pace were not favoured, and remains capable of better.
2:25 – Bahrain Turf Series Handicap (Class 2) – 2m
Zeeband won the Northumberland Vase last time. Up 8lb but effective on grass and is capable of improvement. His claims are obvious.
Rodrigo Diaz a winner at Doncaster two starts back. Wasn’t well placed in slowly run race when a never nearer 1 ½ length 3rd of 12 at Kempton last time. Stays 1m 6f and a good chance that he will stay 2m.
Just Hubert shaped nicely when 3rd of 10 at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance. Needed a stronger pace when only 11th in the Ascot Stakes on his next start and was never travelling in the Northumberland Plate. Tom Marquand 2 wins from 6 rides 4 places is back in the saddle. Gets the first time cheekpieces and if they go a good pace he can get into the money.
Withhold won this race in 2019, off 2lb higher. Has struggled on both starts this season. Nicely handicapped if he bounces back to form must have claims. Osin Murphy is 8 winners from 30 rides 27% +6.71 1 5 placed 50% when riding for Roger Charlton.
Verdict: The claims of the improving Zeeband and Rodrigo Diaz are clear for all to see. However, preference at the prices for Just Hubert in the first-time headgear.
1pt each way – Just Hubert – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Tabdeed won this last year after finishing 2nd in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle. He goes the same route again, having finished 4th in that race three weeks ago. Big chance returned to a sound surface on turf.
Diligent Harry finished one place and ¾ length in front of Tabdeed at Newcastle. First start on turf for the 3-year-old and if he handles the switch in surface is capable of being a Group class sprinter. There doesn’t seem to be much in the way pace so he could also get an uncontested lead here.
King’s Lynn a winner of a Listed race at Haydock, hasn’t had the best of luck in the run on either start when 7th in the King Stand Stakes and 3rd in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. Back in a smaller field should suit and he’s a strong contender.
Royal Commando looked set for a good season when winning a Listed race at Doncaster (good) on the first day of the new season. Down the field on softer ground in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes last time. Not out of this if reproducing to his Doncaster form.
Happy Romance won the Super Sprint on this card last year. Finished her race off strongly when 3rd of 10 in the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown over 5f last time. Returns to 6f and should go well again.
3:40 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 5f
Chipolte and Vintage Clarets’ form is head and shoulders above the rest of the field. The former Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and is well suited to quick ground. Meanwhile Vintage Clarets finished third in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. The only negatives are they are drawn 20 & 22 respectively.
Gubbass looked a useful prospect when winning at Leicester on his racecourse debut 99-days ago. He hasn’t been since that race but has likely been aimed at this race. Needs to have improved plenty to beat the market leaders but that is highly probable for this Gimcrack entry.
Trainer Johnny Portman won this in 2016 and he saddles the speedy Sienna Bonnie whose Bath win came on good to firm ground. Hollie Doyle has been booked for the filly and off just 8-1 has each way claims.
Verdict: Its hard to look beyond the claims of Chipolte after his quick ground success at Ascot last time. Gubbass is one of the lest experienced in the field but the Gimcrack entry is also open to the most progress on just his second career start.
Market Rasen
2:05 – Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) 2m ½ f
Hang In There bounced back to his best when making all to beat four rivals at Stratford 6-days ago. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for that success but a 10lb conditional has been booked to negate the weight rise.
Hooper has won his last four and has been raised another 7lb for latter of those wins at Stratford last month and goes well on good ground.
Pagero put in a career best effort when 1 length 2nd of 9 at Warwick 24-days ago. Very effective on a sound surface and looks on a competitive mark.
Besides Hang In There Emma Lavelle also saddles Voice Of Calm who ran out a comfortable of a Cartmel handicap hurdle last time. Has a 9lb rise in the weights to overcome but she could be progressive and will like the summer ground.
Dr Richard Newland won this in 2015 and saddles Wicked West who has won both his starts since joining the trainer. Handicap hurdle debut and could be capable of better.
Valentino Dancer won on just his second start since joining up Fergal O’Brien at Kelso 48-days ago. Like good ground and isn’t out of this off despite an 8lb rise in the weights.
Camprond has solid form in big field handicaps finishing a ½ length 2nd of 22 at Aintree and 3rd of 14 in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock. Made all to win a novice hurdle over C&D last month. Looks to have a favourites chance and if his jumping holds up shouldn’t be far away.
Verdict: Wicked West and Hooper are both progressive hurdlers with a slight preference for the latter on his bid for a five timer. Voice Of Calm is another handicap hurdler with more to give and must be high on the shortlist.
1pt win – Voice Of Calm – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
1pt win – Hooper – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:40 – Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) – 2m 5 ½ f
Captain Tom Cat a useful handicap hurdler has really taken to chasing, winning all three starts over fences. Remains capable of better but won’t get his own way out in front here as there a few who like to go out in front.
Soloman Grey a useful handicap chaser at his best was just creeping into the race when unseating his jockey in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter last time. Drop back in trip not an issue and he shouldn’t be far away with a clear round. Finhsed third in this race last year.
Pink Eyed Pedro runner-up in the Topham Chase at Aintree wasn’t disgraced when 4 ½ length 4th of 18 behind one of today’s rivals Francky Du Berlais at Uttoxeter last time. Get’s 5lb from that one and has a decent chance of turning the tables here.
Exelerator Express hails from the inform Neil Mulholland yard. A winner at Haydock (soft) two starts back. The 7-year-old finished 1 ½ lengths behind Pink Eyed Pedro at Uttoxeter last time.
That’s A Given showed the benefit of wind surgery when bolting up at Newton Abbot 15-days ago. Up 9lb for that success but it was a career best effort from the 7-year-old and given the likely strong pace should get the race run to suit.
Darling Maltaix having his second run since a wind operation, looked as good as ever when returning from an 8-month absence to beat three rivals at Newton Abbot last month. Up 3lb in a deeper race but can go well for Paul Nicholls who saddled the winner of this in 2015.
Fire Away made it 4 wins from 5 starts over the larger obstacles since joining Laura Morgan when winning at Cartmel back in May. The 8-year-old showed he remains in good hear when winning over hurdles at Worcester 12-days ago. On a career high mark over fences but ran last time like his class ceiling might not have been reached.
Verdict: The most competitive handicap either side of the Irish Sea today. Pink Eyed Pedro wouldn’t be winning one of these out of turn. Captain Tom Cat has really taken to fences and if he handles today’s much bigger field has obvious claims. That’s A Given impressed when winning at Newton Abbot last time. We might not have seen the best of Fire Away yet.
1pt each way – Pink Eyed Pedro – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Fire Away – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Curragh
4:00 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap – 6 ½ f
Hightimeyouwon a winner over 7f at Cork two starts back he showed he remains in good form when a 2-length 4th of 27 behind Ice Cold in Alex here last time. Get’s 6lb from that one today and and should go well.
1pt win – Hightimeyouwon – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John