Hi all,
Day four of Royal Ascot is almost upon us. This year’s Royal Meeting is proving decidedly tough. It’s a long time since the handicaps were as competitive as these have been and today looks no easier. The forecast 28mm’s of rain never arrived, in fact just 3mm fell at the track. However, it’s looking more nailed on that there will be heavy rain overnight and all day tomorrow. Surely this band of rain will arrive to ease the ground significantly.
The juvenile fillies get the card underway in the Albany Stakes (2:30). There are also two Group 1’s on the card: The Commonwealth Cup (3:40) and the Coronation Stakes (4:15). Like Wednesday the card concludes with three big field handicaps.
Royal Ascot – Day 4
2:30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f
Ralph Beckett saddled a winner here yesterday and he’s got a good chance of adding another here with Hello You. The well-bred daughter of Invincible Spirit made an impressive winning racecourse debut at Wolverhampton last month. Looked a smart prospect that day when quickening up in the straight to go clear of her rivals inside the final furlong. Should be capable of reaching Group level. She’s out of a Pivotal mare so there’s a decent chance she will handle rain softened ground.
Cachet made a winning Newmarket racecourse debut for George Boughey. She looked a useful prospect that day and handled good to soft last time. Should be there or thereabouts.
The best filly in the field long term may not win today and it’s Aidan O’Brien’s Prettiest. The daughter of Dubawi out of Group 1 winning mare made a winning a racecourse debut at Navan 19-days ago. That win came on yielding ground but her dam was at her best on quick ground. She’s already been backed for next seasons 1,000 Guineas.
3:05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m 4f
Alenquer had Derby winner Adayar back in second when causing a 25/1 shock in the Classic Trial at Sandown. Won on soft ground last year so so shouldn’t have any issues with the forecast rain. The step up to 1m 4f can bring out more improvement in the colt.
The Mediterranean won a Leopardstown maiden (good) on his seasonal return and improved further when a ¾ length 2nd of 8 in the Listed Nijinsky Stakes over today’s distance. He’s open to further improvement and could be St Leger horse.
Title runner-up on his first two starts got off the mark at Yarmouth (good to sof) last time. The first two pulled clear of the third. Interesting that Roger Varian ups the colt into Group 2 company rather than take advantage of a mark of 92 in handicaps.
3:40 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 6f
French filly Suesa is unbeaten on four career starts and impressed when quickening clear of her rivals to win a Group 3 at Chantilly last time. Three of those wins have come on soft and heavy so underfoot conditions should hold no terrors for her.
Campanelle won the Queen Mary here last year and followed up in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville. It was good to soft at Deauville so she should be ok should the ground ease.
Supremacy a high-class juvenile winning three of his four starts, culminating in success in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. Ran too bad to be true when last of eight over C&D on his seasonal reappearance. The first-time blinkers are applied today but I wonder if the ground has gone against him.
Dragon Symbol won his first four starts and maintained his improvement when a nose 2nd of 10 in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. Had no issues with heavy ground last time and looks set for another big performance.
Method was 2 ¼ lengths back in fifth in the Sandy Lane. That was the colt’s seasonal return and he’s entitled to be spot on fitness wise here. Trainer Martyn Meade knowss what’s required to win this as he saddled Advertise to win in 2019.
Jumby put in a smart handicap performance to win at Newmarket (good to soft) last month. Takes a big jump in class here and soft ground is an unknown but I think he will go well if handling it.
A Case Of You disappointed when upped to 7f behind Poetic Flare two starts back but returned to winning ways back over 6f in a Group 3 at Naas last month. The rain is coming at the right time for the colt who is 3-3 on soft. Need to improve again to win this but on soft ground maybe he will.
4:20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) – 1m
Mother Earth won the English 1,000 Guineas and then handled softer ground when runner-up in the French 1,000 Guineas. Ryan Moore chooses here ahead of stablemate Empress Josephine.
German 1,000 Guineas winner Novemba won’t find it easy to dominate this field as she did last time. However, she does go on soft ground and is a very interesting runner.
Pretty Gorgeous won the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket (soft) on her final juvenile start. She shaped like the run was needed when 3 ½ length 7th of 14 in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Empress Josephine showed much improved form to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas. More improvement to come and further will suit her on the evidence of her Curragh win. The more testing the ground the better her chance.
Fev Rover finished 3rd behind Mother Earth in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket but ran well below that form in the Irish version. Yard going better now and she’s surely better than she was able to show last time.
Primo Bacio showed a high class turn of footto win a Listed race at York last month. The ground was good that day and she’s yet to race on ground worse than good. Unexposed over the distance and likely capable of better.
Snow Lantern a good winner of Newbury maiden against the males on her seasonal return. The daughter of Sky Lantern, who won this is 2013, pulled far to hard to do herself justice behind Primo Bacio at York. Remains a potentially smart prospect but needs to settle better than she did last time and soft ground be an unknown.
Verdict: We have three Guineas winners in the line-up Mother Earth, Empress Josephine and Novemba and potential improvers in Primo Bacio and Snow Lantern. Softer ground will bring Empress Josephine’s stamina into play and I prefer her claims to stablemate Mother Earth. Novemba is an interesting runner from Germany, Fev Rover isn’t out of this if she can reproduce her English 1,000 Guineas third.
1pt win – Empress Josephine – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Novemba – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) – 1m
Glesga Girl showed she has trained on from 2 to 3 with a tidy win at Wolverhampton on her seasonal return at Wolverhampton 25-days ago. Up 10lb, Mark Crehan takes off a handy 3lb, but she’s going the right eye and likely there is a better performance in her.
You can give plenty a chance including Samoot who had a wide trip when only 5th behind Glesga Girl at Wolverhampton and is better judged on her win at Salisbury two starts back.
Create Belief a winner at Gowran Park on her reappearance bounced back from a poor run at Navan Listed race when making a winning handicap debut at the Curragh 27-days ago, It was soft to heavy that day and soft when she won at Gowran Park. Up 10lb but the time was decent and the forecast rain does give her a solid chance out of stall 16.
Verdict: Glesga Girl is likely capable of better and the rain will hopefully have come for Creative Belief.
1pt win – Glesga Girl – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Create Belief – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:35 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Plenty in with a chance again. Jeremiah won over C&D last summer and had been trained for this race. He’s a tricky one to with me but is on a competitive mark. Not sure he will be seen at his best on soft ground though.
Sam Cooke was beaten a nose by Jeremiah over C&D and gets a 2lb pull here. He’s become a bit inconsistent sort but ran well for long way on his reappearance, only headed at the furlong mark, when 6th of 16 at York. On a good mark and has won on soft ground in the past.
Raymond Tusk finished runner-up in that York race. He’s another on a handy mark although may need a bit further to exploit it. Stall one could be tricky in a big field around here over 1m 4f.
Win O’Clock would be a welcome winner for Roger Charlton. He was a 1 ¼ lengths behind Raymond Tusk in 4th in the York race. The 4-year-old had a good season last year winning four times and goes well in the mud. Must be respected.
Mirann has a big race in him. Back to his best when a ½ 2nd of 11 at the Curragh last time.
Zabeel Champion has been well placed to win his last three on good to firm. Showed a good attitude at the finish to hold off a couple of challengers in the final 50-yds. Nudged up 2lb and on different ground but he seemed to handle soft ground when winning at Newmarket last July.
Quickthorn a winner at Kempton last summer. He made a winning seasonal reappearance at Haydock (good to soft) 20-days ago. An 8 ½ length success means the 4-year-old has been raised 13lb but he’s lightly raced for his age and open to more improvement. Trainer Hughie Morrison saddled the winner of this in 2003, 2010 and 2015.
Verdict: The improving Quickthorn is a worthy favourite, Zabeel Champion is tough at the finish and his winning run may not have ended. The likes of Mirann & Win O’Clock have each way claims and the latter goes well on easy ground. Jeremiah & Sam Cooke have good form over C&D but the former maybe better on a sounder surface.
1pt win – Quickthorn – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Sam Cooke – 9/1 @ Bet365
6:10 – Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
Warrior Brave showed improved form to win at Goodwood (good to firm) two starts back and improved again when running Atalis Bay in Listed race at Sandown 6-days ago. The front two pulled nicely clear of the third. The blinkers replace the cheekpieces but the likely softer ground is a bit of a unknown.
No going concerns for Mo Celita. The filly has won her last five on ground from good to firm to heavy. Up 8lb for her last win but could still be a head of the handicapper. Osin Murphy booked and not discounted easily if the rain has come.
Popmaster has finished runner-up on his last two starts. Just 1lb higher for a nose defeat at Doncaster last time, gave the winner first run that day, drop back to a strongly run 5f looks a positive but soft ground would be an unknown.
Significantly had Jumby back in third when runner-up to Creative Force at Newmarket two starts back and ran just as well when runner-up to Dragon Symbol at Hamilton last time. Looks nicely treated on the form of his last starts and could get into the places but doesn’t always find much at the end of his races.
Boomshalaa is one of the least exposed in the field having just had the three career starts. Has won her last two over 6f at Windsor & Kempton. Found plenty for pressure at Windsor. Drops back to 5f for his handicap debut but is open to plenty of improvement. A strongly run 5f could suit but soft ground asks a new question of the colt.
Verdict: Plenty of the fancied horses must show they handle significant ease in the ground. One who won’t be concerned by a deluge of rain is Mo Celita. Boomshalaa is an improver going the right way and is on a workable mark for his handicap debut but soft ground is an unknown. Same for the inform Warrior Brave who looks interesting in the first-time blinkers.
1pt win – Mo Celita – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Warrior Brave – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John