Good morning all,
The weather is about to change big time over the next couple of days. If the weather forecasters are right Ascot could see plenty of rain up until Saturday. It’s going to make punting a bit of a nightmare. I would advise plenty of caution on the betting side over the next few days and wait until you know exactly how much rain has fallen.
Update: Ascot seems to have missed most of the heavy rain and according to clerk of the course Chris Stickels the going is still good to firm.
Royal Ascot – Day 3
The 2-year-old’s get day three underway with the Norfolk Stakes (2:30) and the card ends with three tough looking handicaps. The feature race of the day and of the meeting is the Ascot Gold Cup (4:15). In which Stradivarius bids to win the race for a fourth successive year.
2:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
I’m sweet on the chance of the Aidan O’Brien trained colt Cadamosto until the rain arrives. The son of No Nay Never created a good impression when winning at Dundalk on his racecourse debut in April and looks a smart prospect.
Twilight Jet showed improved form to win at the third time of asking at Tipperary (good) 16-days ago. There should be more to come from the colt who was suited by the strong pace last time.
Project Dante showed a good battling attitude to win at York on his racecourse debut. The form of that race looks solid and he merits serious consideration. His dam won on good to soft so there’s a good chance he will be effective on an easy surface.
Trainer David Loughnane had the first two home in the final handicap here yesterday. He saddles Go Bears Go who won over C&D on his racecourse debut last month. The ground was soft that day so we know he handles rain softened ground. Its hard to say whether stall five is good or not but he’s my idea of the winner.
Verdict: If it was good ground, no worse I would like Cadamosta if not I’m with Go Beats Go.
3:05 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Mohaafeth a late withdrawal from the Derby on account of the softening ground will be a warm order here. However, will the exciting colt run?
One Ruler will appreciate any rain. He was only 6th in the Derby. He likely didn’t stay 1m 4f and didn’t handle Epsom undulations either. Capable of better back at 1m 2f.
Roman Empire has them all stretched when trying to make all in the Dante and wasn’t beaten far in 4th. No issues with ease in the ground but needs to improve again to win this.
Movin Time made a winning seasonal reappearance when quickening clear of eight rivals in a Newmarket maiden last month. The form of that race got a boost her yesterday when the runner-up Kemari won the Queen Vase. An exciting prospect who can give the favourite a race.
Verdict: Let’s hope Mohaafeth takes his place in the lineup. Movin Time can give him a race if he does.
3:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 1m 4f
Noon Star runner-up to subsequent Oaks winner Snowfall in the Musidora at York was forced to miss Epsom due to a blood disorder. The filly won a maiden at Nottingham on soft ground so ground shouldn’t be an issue and she’s bred to improve for the step up to 1m 4f.
Dubai Fountain only beat two home in the Oaks, possibly was unsuited by the track. The Cheshire Oaks winner is surely better than she was able to show at Epsom and back on a more conventional track should be in the mix.
Eshaada comes into the race bidding for the hat trick after wins at Nottingham last season and Newbury last month. Both those successes came on soft ground so any rain won’t inconvenience her. Shapes like she should stay 1m 4f.
Gloria Mundi was a neck behind Eshaada at Newbury and she’s bred to improve over 1m 4f. Needs to settle better than she did last time though. Yard have saddled the winner of the Ribblesdale in three of the last four seasons. One of three runners from the yard.
Divinely improved to finish third in the Oaks last time and given she raced more to the centre of the track was a bit unlucky not to finish runner-up. Capable of another good run if this race doesn’t come to quick.
Ad Infinitum was thrown in the deep end, on just her second career start, in a Listed race at Goodwood. However, that didn’t stop her from winning. Not sure how strong the form is but it was run on soft ground and the daughter of Golden Horn is going the right way and has an each-way chance.
Verdict: The improving Eshaada would be the pick if rain has arrived. Otherwise, Noon Star looks a worthy favourite.
4:15 – Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 2m 4f
Stradivarius bids for fourth Gold Cup success. Clearly, he’s the one to beat but I do think this is a much stronger field than he faced last year.
Trueshan relished the testing ground when bolting up here in the Long-Distance Cup on Champions Day. He will be sharper for his Chester reappearance and the softer the ground the better his chance of beating an on-song Stradivarius.
Spanish Mission won the Yorkshire Cup on his seasonal reappearance and showed he stayed 2m 2f when winning last year’s Doncaster Cup. Has a good turn of foot for a stayer and can’t be totally dismissed here but his chance would be enhanced on quicker ground.
Twilight Payment won last year’s Melbourne Cup. He stays 2m but a real test over 2m 4f could just stretch his stamina.
Subjectivist made all to win the 2m Group 1 Prix Royal Oak (Heavy) at Longchamp on his final start of 2020 and looked as good as ever when winning Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan on World Cup Night. Every chance he will stay 2m 4f and although he needs to improve a bit further its possible, he can.
Emperor Of The Sun is a lively enough outsider. The 4-year-old won a 1m 6f Listed race at Leopardstown last time. A good chance he will stay this marathon trip and has each way claims if doing so.
Princess Zoe hasn’t been at her best on either start this season but must be respected on the form of her win in the Group 1 Prix Du Cadran (heavy) over today’s distance. The mare is at her best on soft/heavy ground and has lively each way claims if the track gets a deluge of rain.
Verdict: It will take a good one to beat Stradivarius but I think the likes of Trueshan & Subjectivist can give him a race. If the heavens have opened Princess Zoe would be an each way bet.
1pt win – Subjectivist – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 2) – 1m
The first of three tough handicaps. With the first two for 3-year-olds only.
Air To Air bids for the hat trick after wins at Newmarket (soft) and Doncaster (good to firm) last time. The likely strong pace will suit the gelding who showed at Doncaster that he’s at bis best coming from behind. He’s also got the ideal jockey in Jamie Spencer to execute such tactics here.
Raadobarg followed up his win in a Thirsk novice (soft) with a decisive win in the Silver Bowl on his handicap debut at Haydock last time. His Haydock win came on heavy ground so no problems with plenty of ease in the ground. The handicapper has taken no chances with the colt as as he’s raised him 11lb. Still, he’s one to keep on side, for a yard that saddled last year’s winner.
Liffey River was a 2-length 2nd of 13 on his handicap debut at the Curragh last time. He’s another who seems at his best with plenty of ease in the ground. A winner over a mile as a juvenile he will be suited by a return to a mile here.
Aerion Power has won his last three. He doesn’t win his races by much which can make life difficult for the handicapper. He’s up 7lb for his latest win at Doncaster (good to firm). As a hold up horse the fast pace will suit and although stall means he will have to stay far side I could see him getting in to the places on quick ground.
Verdict: Air To Air is a worthy market leader but I just prefer the claims of Raadobarg and Aerion Power if the ground remains on the quicker side of good for the latter.
1pt win – Raadobarg – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Aerion Power – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
5:35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Plenty in with a chance here. First Light took to soft ground when winning at Ripon 32-days ago. Makes his handicap debut here and is open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 4f.
Sir Lamorak hasn’t been seen since a smooth success on his handicap debut over 1m 2f at Leopardstown in April. Should stay 1m 4f and although he was raised 15lb for his last success a mark of 100 could still underestimate the colt who had a Derby entry and was ante post favourite for the Chester Vase until a late withdrawal on account of the softening ground. That withdrawal would be a worry here but he would have a favourites chance if the rain wasn’t as bad as forecast.
Nagano won a Nottingham maiden on good to soft and improved to win on the tapeta at Newcastle 23-days ago. Handicap debut off a workable mark and is bred to improve for the step up to 1m 4f. Looks one to keep on side.
Lord Protector is another capable of improvement for the step up to 1m 4f. A winner at Windsor (good to firm) he followed up on soft ground at Salisbury on his handicap debut last month. The handicapper has raised him 6lb for that last success but he could be capable of better.
Tashkhan was just touched off at York on his first start for Brian Ellison but made no mistake when winning at Haydock (soft) 20-days ago. The handicapper has hiked him up 11lb which makes life difficult but he’s going the right way.
Surrey Gold won by 7 lengths at Newbury (good to soft)last monthon just his second start on turf. He’s been raised 12lb for that win but he’s bred to improve more for the step up to 1m 4f. Dam won on soft ground so ground easier than good to soft should pose too much of a problem for the colt who rate higher than a mark of 87.
Verdict: Sir Lamorak could be Group class and if the ground is good is the one to beat. On softer ground I’m very sweet on the chance of Surrey Gold and Nagano.
1pt win – Nagano – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Surrey Gold – 9/1 @ Bet365
6:10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Persuasion put in a clear best effort on RPR’s when beating 12 rivals at Haydock 54-days ago. It was good to firm that day but he showed he was effective on heavy on his final start of 2020. Just 3lb higher he could be capable of better still.
Interesting to see Bielsa come here rather than go for Saturday’s Wokingham. He’s been in good form this season and was only beaten a nose at Haydock last time. Up 4lb but remains a winnable mark if he stays today’s extra furlong.
Jack’s Point shaped better than his 13th of 27 in the Victoria Cup over C&D suggests last time. Was first in the small group that race far side. That was his first start for 8 months and he should be sharper here. Again, drawn low in stall 4 but did finish a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 23 in this race last season and can be expected to go well again.
Lord Campari is one of the least exposed runners in the field. A winner over a mile at Newbury last season. The 4-year-old hasn’t really built on that win on subsequent starts in better company but he wasn’t totally disgraced when 6th of 11 behind Palace Pier in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes on his seasonal return. The drop back to 7f could suit as will ease in the ground.
Danyah finished 4th in the Lincoln and runner-up in the Spring Cup last time. A strong traveller, a well-run 7f could be ideal for the 4-year-old whose been raised 3lb for his last performance.
Boardman bids for the four timer but despite a 6lb rise for winning at Chester last time he still looks ahead of the handicapper. Easy ground suits but a straight 7f demands something different from the 5-year-old as this season’s three wins have come around a bend.
Blue Mist likely needed his Newbury seasonal reappearance and first run since a wind op. He’s just 3lb higher than winning the International Handicap over C&D (good to form) last July. Ideally suited by a cavalry charge here over either 7f or a mile. He seems likely to go well again.
Aldaary is the only 3-year-old in the field. A winner of his first three starts the first two on heavy and a C&D winner in May (good to soft). He was set plenty to do when a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 11 at Goodwood 26-days ago. Capable of more improvement and set for a good run back here.
Tomfre rattled off a hat trick on soft/heavy last autumn. He was doing his best work at the finish at York last time and should go well although he’s vulnerable to better handicapped horses.
Ropey Guest has put in some of his best efforts over C&D. Finishing 4th in last season’s Group 3 Jersey Stakes and he made an encouraging return to action when a staying on 2 ¼ length 6th of 27 in the Victoria Cup. Goes very well in the mud and although he remains 0-15 on turf, he’s the type to out run his odds in races like this.
Verdict: A typically competitive handicap and you can make a strong case for nine or ten of the runners. If Boardman handles the straight course, he will take the beating. Blue Mist can never be ruled out over C&D. Lord Campari is unexposed and could be suited by the drop back to 7f. If the ground isn’t too bad both Persuasion and Jack’s Point can run well.
1pt win – Blue Mist – 16/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Persuasion – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John