Hi all,
Spirit Dancer got caught in the shadow of the post at Chester yesterday so I couldn’t keep the winning run going. Hopefully today we can regain the winning thread.
The Chester Cup is the feature race of the final day of the May Festival and it’s the usual tricky puzzle. There’s also a good flat card at Ascot and ITV Racing are covering the 2:00 from Market Rasen as part of their Chester coverage.
I have had an in depth look at four of the Chester handicaps. Plus, a couple of races at Ascot.
Chester’s May Festival – Day 3
1:45 – tote+ Placepots Pay More Earl Grosvenor Handicap (Class 2) – 7 ½ f
Revich has a great record at the course with form figures 15311. The 5-year-old has also run well on both starts this season finishing 6th in the Lincoln and 4th in the Spring Cup. Well suited to good to soft going and has great chance here from stall 1.
Charles Hills is 6-21 with his runners in the past 14-days and has a big contender in Dulas. The 4-year-old put in a career best effort on turf when 2nd of 13 at Haydock 13-days ago. Nicely berthed in stall 2 and can go close from just 1lb higher than last time.
Grove Ferry finished 8th in the Lincoln Handicap. He’s another with a handy draw in stall 3. He will be ridden prominently and should be competitive if handling the track
Ascension finished three places behind Revich in the Lincoln on his seasonal reappearance and should be suited by this turning extended 7f. However, he does have a trickier draw in stall 8 to overcome.
Verdict: Rather unimaginative but I can’t see beyond Revich and Dulas. The former’s effectiveness on good to soft swings it for me.
2:45 – tote+ Chester Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 2 ½ f
The big betting race of the week with a maximum field of 17 declared to meet the starter.
Last year’s winning trainer Mark Johnston saddles Trumpet Man. The 4-year-old improved for stepping up to 2m in the second half of the season and will be sharper for his recent seasonal appearance at Musselburgh. A prominent racer he should be well suited to the track. Tricky draw in stall 12 overcome but if Franny Norton can get him into a good position, he’s got a good chance
Glencadam Glory who finished runner-up in last season’s Ebor Handicap, now 4lb lower, also ran in the Musselburgh race and wasn’t subjected to hard race on his return to action. Nicely treated on his best form if he stays this marathon trip.
Cardano did well on the all-weather over the winter making all to win twice over 1m 4f at Lingfield. Improved further for a return to turf when a neck 2nd of 13 in the Musselburgh race. That was the the 5-year-old’s first start at 1m 6f. Takes a further 4 ½ furlong step in trip today but has stall one and Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride.
Besides Cardano Ian Williams also saddles The Grand Visir. No stamina issues for the 7-year-old who won the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes Handicap at the Royal Meeting in 2019. Stall 11 to negotiate but isn’t out of it if they go a decent gallop.
Falcon Eight is an interesting runner from the Dermot Weld stable. A smart performer when at his best who has been gelded since his last run last summer. Best form has come on a sounder surface. Trainer has sent over four horses for the race and three have them placed since 2010. Yard is just 1-19 in the past 14-days.
Verdict: Glencadam Glory is on a good mark but there are doubts about his stamina for this marathon trip. Drier ground would suit Falcon Eight. Cardano has solid credentials and Trumpet Man improved for stepping up to 2m last autumn.
1pt win – Cardano – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Trumpet Man – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – Retraining Of Racehorses Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Alternative Fact three career wins have come on soft ground so he might not want the ground to dry out too much and his style of running may not be suited by the track. However, Ryan Moore booked and if he’s fully tuned up for his seasonal return is handicapped to be competitive.
Restorer is a bit of a course specialist with the 9-year’s old’s form figures over C&D being 14221. First run since winning here in September but he’s gone well fresh in the past – 4 wins from 8 runs when returning from a 121-day break.
Lawn Ranger finished a short head behind Restorer in that Chester race and can meet him on 4lb better terms today. He also won over C&D on his only other start here last August off today’s mark. Ran like the run was needed om his return to action at Kempton last time. Stall six could be better but if he gets out in front, he looks a bit of value.
Verdict: Restorer and Lawn Ranger were first & second over C&D last year and at the weights I just prefer the latter.
1pt win – Lawn Ranger – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:20 – tote+ Chester Plate Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 2 ½ f
The Chester Cup consolation race and the betting is headed by Postileo. The Roger Varian trained 4-year-old put in a career best effort after 8 months off the track when finishing runner-up in the Queen’s Prize at Kempton. He’s lightly raced and is open to more improvement this season.
Elysian Flame produced a career best when winning over an extended 2m at Newbury. Today’s extra distance should really suit him. Prior to Newbury he had seemed at his best on testing ground but he had no problem with good going last time. Just 3lb higher here and set for a big run although given his hold up style he will need luck in the run.
Ian Williams trained Indianapolis was having his first start for the trainer when a 7½ lengths 9th of 13 to Themaxwecan at Musselburgh last time. He wasn’t subjected to hard race that day and should be sharper today. Stays 2m, has a handy draw in stall 4 and looks on a winnable mark.
Williams also saddles another horse on a good mark in Speedo Boy. The 7-year-old ran with credit when 3rd of 4 to Hochfeld at Nottingham last time. That was his first start for six months and he will strip fitter for that run. Good draw in stall 4.
Joseph O’Brien brings over Grandmaster Flash. The 5-year-old has won his last two at Dundalk. Yet to win on turf after nine starts but showed he’s effective on soft ground when a 1 ¾ length 5th of 20 in a valuable 2m 1f handicap at the Galway Festival. Respected from stall 6 with Ryan Moore booked.
Brasca put in a career best on RPR’s when winning over 1m 4f at Salisbury 12-days ago. Has a 3lb penalty for his last win but is lightly raced for a 5-year-old and races from stall 1.
Green Book is a rare flat runner for Venetia Williams. Had decent middle distance flat form when trained in France. Ran with plenty of promise when a 3 ½ 2nd of 14 at Hereford on his first start for the trainer last time. The winner Herbiers has since gone onto win two valuable handicap hurdles Hard to weigh up the 4-year-old’s French form but he’s in stall 2 and Franny Norton is an interesting jockey booking.
Verdict: Just as competitive as the Cup, if not more so. Postileo and Brasco, ground an unknown for the latter, are open to more progress and hail from inform yards. Green Book is a interesting off a light weight for Venetia Williams. Ian Williams saddles six and his best two could be Indianapolis & Speedo Boy. Elysian Flame remains on a good mark after his recent Newbury success but he’s a hold up horse and will need luck in the run. Grandmaster Flash has been in good form at Dundalk and has Ryan Moore in the saddle.
1pt win – Elysian Flame – 11/2 @ Bet365
Ascot
3:30 – Jonah Jones often runs well in these sprint handicaps but he hasn’t won since his juvenile season. Needs a strongly run 6f as he showed when finishing an unlucky length 3rd of 11 over C&D last September. Should be all the better for his Kempton seasonal return last month
Fresh also showed a liking for C&D when a strong finishing nose 2nd of 9 here on soft ground last October. The 4-year-old finished two places and two lengths behind Jonah Jones in the Kempton race. Will be sharper today and handles ease in the ground. Another who should strip fitter today.
Pendleton returns from 560-day absence. He was an improving sprint handicapper on soft/heavy ground when last seen in action in 2019, including winning here over 5f. Starts back on a competitive mark and not totally out of this if ready to roll.
Verdict: Jonah Jones deserves to win a race like this but is on a long losing run. Fresh showed he was suited by C&D last year and can improve for his Kempton seasonal reappearance. Pendleton appeals at bigger odds despite his long spell off the track.
1pt win – Fresh – 8/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Pendleton – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
4:40 – Plenty of unexposed 3-year-old’s who could rate higher than their present marks. One of them is the Roger Varian trained Invincible Swagger. A winner of a Kempton maiden in January. Thee top-weight showed he handled the turf when 2nd of 9 at Thirsk 20-days ago. Capable of more improvement and should be better suited by Ascot’s stiff mile.
Orgetorix won at York (soft) on his second juvenile start last season and improved further when 2nd of 13 at Kempton last time. Returns from a 183-day absence but if fully tuned up looks on a good mark for his handicap debut.
Year of The Dragon makes his turf/handicap debut. He wasn’t suited by the track at Lingfield when a fast-finishing ½ length 3rd of 12 last time. Capable of better and today’s stiffer test should suit.
Knowwhentorun is one of the more exposed of the runners but he could be on a good mark if seeing out this stiff mile. Found himself on the wrong part of the track when a 6 ½ length 7th of 15 behind the useful Mithras on his handicap debut at Newbury last time. Best form as a 2-year-old came on heavy ground so any ease in the ground is a positive but stall 1 may not be one.
Verdict: Plenty of juice in the ground will suit Knowwhentorun and Orgetorix and both are on attractive marks. Invincible Swagger has top-weight but he’s open to more improvement and should be suited by a stiff mile.
1pt win – Invincible Swagger – 7/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John