Hi all,
A rather frustrating Saturday. The main selections all ran well. Unfortunately, Tauran Shaman was carried across the track by the winner and lost fourth in the final few strides. Ok, if you were on with bookies paying five places but I was with Bet365 paying just the four. He was very unlucky not to finish in the first four. Copper And Fire ran a cracker to finish third but there was a non-runner in his Nottingham race so only seven ran. Jeremiah also ran well to finish a close-up third at Thirsk. It was one of those days when nothing went right on another day you get a good return on your day’s punting.
A feast of racing at Ayr, with the latest running of the Coral Scottish Grand National and a an excellent supporting card of competitive handicaps and at Newbury which hosts two Guineas Trials and a competitive looking Spring Cup Handicap.
Ayr
1:15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m ½ f
Duke Of Navan might be a 13-year-old but he showed he still has the legs to run well when runner-up at Doncaster last time. He goes well on good ground and his form figures in this race are 13F. Clearly, remains vulnerable to younger horses like favourite King D’argent but I can see him giving backers a good run for their money.
1pt win – Duke Of Navan – 9/1 – Gen
1:50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase – (Class 2) – 3m
The Scottish Grand National maybe today’s feature race but this is a competitive thirteen runner novices’ handicap chase.
Irish raider Pilbara heads the market. The 6-year-old is 0-5 over fences and didn’t jump well enough when 9th 0f 13 at Galway (soft) on his last start in October. He was sent of the 15/8 favourite which suggests connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands. He’s 2-2 over hurdles when racing at 3m and can go well off a layoff, won off a 313-day break last year.
Five Star Getaway has returned from a winter break to win three handicap chases. He’s been raised 15lb for his last win at Haydock but that might not stop this fast-improving young chaser from making it four wins on the trot. First run beyond 2m 4f but he did finish first past the post in an Irish point so should stay 3m.
Sirwilliamwallace won here over 2m 4 ½ f last month. He should stay 3m but both his wins have come on soft ground. He’s a good jumper of a fence and if he’s as effective on quicker ground he’s got a chance.
Marown goes well here winning once over fences and twice over hurdles. Unexposed over 3m and should make up into a good handicap chaser but the suspicion is that he may want more ease in the ground that he’s likely to get here.
Dublin Four won at the fifth attempt over fences when winning at Newbury over an extended 2m 6f last time. He’s been raised 9lb for that win but he’s on the upgrade and more improvement can be expected for the step up to 3m.
Dead Right a winner at Market Rasen in September. Off for six months he wasn’t best placed and never got competitive behind The Shunter at the Cheltenham Festival. Has had a wind-op since and gets the first-time tongue tie today. The quicker the ground the better his chance and he’s got each way claims.
Verdict: I can see Dead Right going well on quick ground. Pilbara could be a very well handicapped However, at the prices I like the improving Five Star Getaway and Dublin Four.
2pts win – Five Star Getaway – 4/1 – Gen
1pt win – Dublin Four – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365
2:25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 2m
Milkwood must be respected on his third of 25 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and today’s quicker ground will be more in his favour. Provided he hasn’t had to hard a race at Cheltenham looks set to go close again.
Calico has won two of his three starts over hurdles and finished runner-up to Cape Gentlemen in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. First start in handicap company and looks a good prospect.
Anna Bunnina was just over three lengths behind Milkwood in the County Hurdle but gets 2lb here. Another suited by good ground and she should get closer to Milkwood here.
Thyme White was further behind in the County Hurdle. He’s got 4lb to find with Anna Bunnina on that running but has been dropped 2lb since Cheltenham. Get’s his optimum conditions of good ground and a sharp 2m today and a better run should be forthcoming from the 5-year-old.
Tommy’s Oscar has been a big improver this season and made it 4 wins from 6 runs since going hurdling when winning a Kelso handicap 22-days ago. Two of the six-year old’s wins have come on good to soft so the quicker ground shouldn’t inconvenience. Up 6lb for his Kelso success but of more concern would be this would be his fifth start since the turn of the year.
Verdict: Despite slight concerns that Tommy’s Oscar may have had too may races this season he remains high on the shortlist as does Thyme White who should be well suited to a sharp track and good ground.
1pt win – Tommy’s Oscar – 8/1 @ Coral & Bet365
1pt win – Thyme White – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 4m
Plenty of the field have yet to prove their credentials beyond 3m 5f. One who has is Mighty Thunder who won the Edinburgh National two starts back and improved further when finishing runner-up in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. Good ground asks a different question of the 8-year-old.
Sandy Thomson has a couple of contenders in Dingo Dollar and The Ferry Master. The former bounced back to form on his first start for the trainer when winning at Newcastle. Ground fine but stamina doubts remain. The Ferry Master looks like he will be better suited by the 4m and he’s well suited to good ground.
The consistent Aye Right must be respected given his performances in valuable handicap chases this season. Should be suited by today’s marathon trip but it won’t be easy to carry 11-11 to victory.
Soldier Of Love was in good form last summer and all five career wins have come on good ground. First run since pulling up on unsuitable soft ground at Cheltenham in November.
Irish raider Mister Fogpatches stayed 3m over hurdles and could show significant improvement for going over marathon trips over fences. Returned from 10 weeks off the track to finish a good fourth of 14 at Leopardstown., would have finished closer but for being hampered by a faller at the last. The form of that race was given a big boast when runner-up Livelovelaugh won the Topham at Aintree. Needs to jump better than he did last time
Alan King has aimed Notachance at this race since he won the Classic Chase at Warwick in January, Can be forgiven a laboured effort when pulled up on heavy ground in the Grand National Trail at Haydock last time. Stable won this in 2013 with Godsmejudge who had gone close in that Warwick race.
The Hollow Ginge hasn’t completed on either start since a strong finishing fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy. He would have to be respected if reproducing his Newbury effort and the 8-year-old shapes like a marathon trip will suit.
Coup De Pinceau seemed to improve for the step up to an extended 3m 4f when winning at Taunton last month. That race wasn’t the strongest but he could improve further for the step up to 4m. Plenty of winning form on good ground.
Normally you would put a line through a 12-year-old but Claud And Goldie is lightly raced for his age. Admirably consistent he looked good when winning at Kelso two starts back. You can forgive his last run as his saddle slipped when back over hurdles. Now 5lb higher than for his last win but he get’s the first time cheekpieces which could bring out bit more improvement in the veteran who’s effective on a sound surface.
Verdict: Despite advancing year’s Claud And Goldie has each way claims. Notachance has been aimed at this race since January. Mighty Thunder is a proven stayer unlike plenty in the field. He’s improving and won’t be far away. Mister Fogpatches could be well handicapped if improving for the step up in distance.
1pt win – Notachance – 11/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Claud And Goldie – 50/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Newbury
I haven’t looked at the Classic Trials here but instead concentrated on the two handicaps.
3:20 – MansionBet Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
It looks a good renewal of the Spring Cup although ante post favourite Troll Peninsula is now a non-runner. There are plenty who could improve beyond their present marks
Nugget shaped well after nine months off the track when a close-up third at Nottingham on his seasonal return 11-days ago. Didn’t get the best of passages last time and looks capable of winning more races this season. Ryan Moore takes the ride.
Matthew Flinders appreciated quick ground and a straight mile when winning at Doncaster on September. The 4-year-old shaped better than the bare result when 8th of 13 at York on soft ground and stepped up to 1m 2f. Get’s his ground and can go close.
Danyah might just have needed the run when fourth in the Lincoln handicap last month and looks capable of better.
Raaeq a winner here over 7f as a juvenile. The 4-year-old improved to win twice last Autumn at Sandown & Ascot. Not as his best when only 5th of 18 in Balmoral Handicap at Ascot (soft) on Champions Day. Can do better this season.
National League is in a deeper race than when second of 10 on his seasonal reappearance at Redcar. That said he can win races this year.
HMS President put in a career best when runner-up here over 1m 2f last summer. He didn’t rally build on that promise on three subsequent starts. Can be keen in his races but a strongly run on a straight mile could really sort the 4-year-old and he’s not totally dismissed here.
Verdict: HMS President could be suited by the drop back to a mile and a fast pace but I’m with Nugget and Matthew Flinders here.
1pt win – Matthew Flinders – 13/2 @ Coral
1pt win – Nugget – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes
5:05 – There is no doubt the unreliable Good Birthday has dropped down to a winnable mark if consenting to put in maximum effort. Third in the 2019 Cambridgeshire he had only been beaten a length into third in the London Gold Cup over C&D earlier that season.
Inchicore put in a much-improved display when winning on her handicap debut at Leicester in October. The ground was heavy and she found plenty for pressure that day. Up 5lb but looks the sort capable of more improvement as a 4-year-old. Ground will be much quicker than last time but she’s by Galileo and her dam won on firm ground so there’s a good chance she doesn’t need testing ground.
Verdict: Good Birthday and Inchicore have different profiles but both have claims in the concluding race on the card.
1pt win – Good Birthday – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Inchicore – 7/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John