Hi all,
An impressive win by Double Or Bubble at Newmarket yesterday. Hopefully you were on BOG.
The Craven meeting continues today with two Group 3s: the bet365 Earl of Sefton Stakes (3.00) and the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (3.35). In the latter race C&D winner Saffron Beach takes on unbeaten filly Love Is You in a race which could provide punters with some 1,000 Guineas clues. There’s also the first of two days of competitive racing at Cheltenham.
You can watch the best of the action from Newmarket’s Craven meeting and Cheltenham on ITV this afternoon. I have selections from both meetings but I have also looked at some of the big races where I haven’t got any picks.
Newmarket
1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Going Places has been a revelation since switching to the Archie Watson stable. Making all to win two of his three starts on the all-weather both over 7f. Drop back to 6f, but doesn’t lack pace, and is having his first start on grass since juvenile debut in 2019. Stall 10 could be better but he will take the beating if he maintains his recent good form back on turf.
George Bowen is on a losing run that goes back over two years. The 9-year-old has dropped down to a good mark and his seasonal return when 6th of 15 at Doncaster provides encouragement that he will be able to win again this season.
Dazzling Dan had good 3-year-old season winning over C&D and on the July Course. Not so good last season but has had wind surgery over the winter and is now 9lb below is last winning mark.
Chil Chil won a C&D nursery in 2019 and came from off the pace to win at Ascot last August. The 5-year-olds form figures on good/good to firm going are an impressive 2111. Can’t be dismissed if ready to roll on her seasonal reappearance.
Verdict: Going Places could take some stopping if as effective on turf as a synthetic surface. Chil Chil is respected if fully tuned up. Dazzling Dan is well handicapped if his recent wind-op has the desired effect.
1pt win – Dazzling Dan – 9/1 @ Bet365
2:25 – bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) – 7f
Just seven go to post for the race but you can give them all some sort of chance. There doesn’t seem to be much pace in the race. Likely favourite Naval Crown who made all to win at Meydan last time could get a solo out in front.
Aidan O’Brien brings over Ontario whose best run last year came when 2nd of 5 in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes here over a mile last September.
Percy’s Lad a winner of his first two juvenile starts put in a career best when runner-up in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury (heavy). Better ground should suit but 7f maybe on the short side given he’s bred to appreciate 1m 2f.
Legal Attack won on his racecourse debut on the July Course last season and wasn’t disgraced when runner-up in a Group 3 at Chantilly on his next star. Proved a major disappointment when a beaten favourite at York in October. If you forgive that run, he has potential for better this season.
3:00 – bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 1f
Global Giant, an easy winner of the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton 18-days ago and is the one to beat. Marie’s Diamond made a winning return to action last season and he’s the only guaranteed front runner in the six strong field. He could be hard to peg back if getting an uncontested lead.
San Donato’s two best RPR’s have come first time up so a 207-day layoff isn’t a necessarily a negative. In fact, I think it’s a positive for the strong travelling 5-year-old. Yard has made a good start to the season and has a good record at this meeting.
My Oberon could be open to more progressive this season. The 4-year-old an easy winner at York last summer put in a career best effort’s on RPR’s when finishing runner-up in Group 3 contests at Goodwood & Haydock. Ran below par at Redcar (15/8 Fav) on his final start of the season but if you forget that run, he’s in the mix here.
Verdict: Global Giant has race fitness on his side and if he can reproduce his all-weather form should win this. Marie’s Diamond will be tough to peg back if getting out on his own in front. My preference is for San Donato who goes well first time up.
1pt win – San Donato – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
3:35 – Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 7f
The bookies have got the betting right for this 1,000 Guineas trial. With the unbeaten fillies Saffron Beach and Love Is Youheading the market.
Saffron Beach is 2-2 over C&D and showed a good battling attitude to win the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes last time out. She’s reported to have thrived physically from two to three and if that’s the case she should be good enough to win this on her return.
Love Is You won the 7f Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury on her final juvenile start. It was heavy that day and good to soft when she made a winning racecourse debut at Ascot. There’s no reason why she won’t be effective on quicker ground but you don’t know until they have tried it. The daughter of Kingman had looked a smart prospect when winning at Newbury.
Tawahub is thrown in the deep end here. Another daughter of Kingman she looked useful when winning a Chelmsford in October. Look capable of winning more races as 3-year-old but would need to have improved plenty over the winter to beat the likes of Saffron Beach & Love Is You.
Verdict: Saffron Beach is my idea of a lively outsider for the first fillies’ classic. I have had an each-way nibble on her at 20/1 for the 1,000 Guineas and the 16/1 available with Paddy Power remains value as she will be shorter, if winning here.
4:45 – Cash Out At bet365 Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 2f
Three -year-old handicaps can be tricky in the first month of the season, as you don’t know which have improved over the winter.
Mohaafeth showed he’s trained on from two to three when winning at Lingfield 26-days ago. The colt who has Dante & Derby entries makes his handicap debut off what looks a competitive mark of 85 and is bred to improve for the step up to 1m 2f.
Sir Michael Stoute seems to have his string forward. He has saddled the winner of this race in 2015 & 2019 and he relies on Just Fine who won at Sandown on his second juvenile start last season. Another bred to appreciate a step up to 1m 2f. He’s been gelded since finishing third in a York nursery debut last October and has potential for more improvement as a 3-year-old.
Cheltenham
2:05 – Ballymore Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (A Limited Handicap) – 2m 4 ½ f
The Big Bite is 2-6 over fences but threw away good opportunity to win the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury last time when hanging badly left on the run in. No issues with good ground but an undulating track like Cheltenham is a bit of an unknown for the 8-year-old.
Up The Straight has yet to win after five starts over fences but put in career best when 2nd of 9 at Sandown last month. Looked set to win when jumping the last but he tired in the run on very testing ground. Finished 3rd of 19 in a handicap hurdle on his only start here in October and is well suited to a sound surface. He’s handicapped to win a decent pot.
Verdict: The Big Bite looks worth taking on here with Up The Straight.
1pt win – Up The Straight – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:40 – Kingston Stud Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Java Point seemed to enjoy the step up to 2m 5f when winning a Warwick maiden hurdle (good) 15-days ago. Prior to that he had finished a neck 2nd of 13 in handicap company at Newbury. Nudged up 4lb for his Warwick win but he’s unexposed at 2m 4f and is open to further progress on a sound surface.
1pt win – Java Point – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:50 – Jockey Club Cheltenham And SW Syndicate Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m
Encore Champs returned from almost a year off the track when 5th of 10 at Kempton on his first start for Dan Skelton. He wasn’t subjected to hard race when his jockey realised his chance had gone in the straight. Likely needed the run at Kempton, will strip fitter today and looks like he can win races for his new yard.
Domino Effect got off the mark at the 7th attempt over hurdles when winning a Chepstow maiden hurdle last month. The first time cheekpieces seemed to have had the desired effect that day and the 7-year-old is on the upgrade. Should be in the mix on going that suits.
Aaron Lad is another who returned from a long absence when 4th of 8 at Newbury 19-days ago. The 10-year-old ran well for a long way and showed he retains plenty of his old ability. Has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper and the former C&D winner has each-way claims.
Verdict: Encore Champs shaped with promise on his first start for Dan Skelton and can win races of his present mark. Domino Effect is also high on the shortlist after his recent Warwick success.
1pt win – Domino Effect – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:25 – Weatherite Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f
Born Survivor took advantage of a handy mark on his favoured good ground when winningat Stratford 16-days ago. Up 9lb for that win but of more concern would be his stamina for 3m 2f.
At the prices it may be worth taking a chance with Enqarde travelled like a well handicapped horse when winning at Ascot in January. Up 8lb and sent off 4/1 favourite for the Grand National Trial at Haydock. He ran well for a long way but his stamina for an extended 3m 4f was stretched before fading two out. Has be a strong contender dropped back in trip if he handles the track.
Verdict: Born Survivor won’t be far away again but given there are doubts about his stamina for 3m 2f it may pay to side with Enqarde who looked progressive when winning at Ascot two starts back.
1pt win – Enqarde – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John