Hi all,
It’s Grand National Day. The world’s most famous horse race returns from a year off due to the Covid19 pandemic. There’s a red-hot favourite in the shape Cloth Cap. He still faces 39 rivals and must jump 30 fences to win and anything can happen.
The weather is set to be mostly sunny and dry on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how much watering they do overnight.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 3
1:45 – EFT Systems Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m ½ f
A 22-runner handicap hurdle gets National Day underway. Looking at the pace forecast there should be an even gallop but whether there will be strong enough pace for the hold-up performers is questionable.
Come On Teddy finished third in the Pertemps Final last time and maintained his improvement since stepping up to around 3m. There could be more to come from 7-year-old who won’t have any issues with good to soft going but this speedier track might not play to his strengths as Cheltenham does.
Champagne Platinum was two places and just under two lengths behind Come On Teddy at Cheltenham. He gets 3lb from that one today and there shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights. Today’s flatter track could suit.
Hometown Boy returnedfrom almost 12 months off the track to win at Kempton (good) 42-days ago. That win came over 2m 5f but he races like he will get further. Up 7lb for his Kempton success but shouldn’t be far away. Yard won the final race here yesterday
Corrieben Reiver has returned from a 480-day break in great form winning at Kelso and then bettering that form when runner-up at Ayr 28-days ago. Recent improved form has come on soft/heavy but he did win a bumper on good to soft. Likely front runner here.
Ballybegg is one of the least experienced runners in the field having had just the four career starts. A winner in novice company at Hereford & latterly at Wetherby. Open to further improvement on his handicap debut but we may not see the best of him until he goes over fences. Yet to race on ground better than soft.
Barnaviddaun is having his first run since switching from Thomas Mullins to David Bridgewater. The 8-year-old looked an improver beating a subsequent winner in a competitive handicap hurdle Naas in November. Best Irish form on soft, so quicker ground is an unknown, and he’s yet to race beyond an extended 2m 4f under rules.
Southfield Harvest gets the first time cheekpieces today. He’s been steadily progressive on his three starts this season. He will be ridden prominently and if the headgear has the desired effect, he could find the improvement needed to win of his present mark.
Whirling Dervish put in a career best effort when winning a 2m 7f handicap hurdle at Thurles on heavy ground 30-days ago. He stays 3m well and has form on a sounder surface. Up 6lb and in a better race but has each-way claims.
Verdict: The first time cheekpieces could sharpen up Southfield Harvest. There shouldn’t be much between Champagne Platinum & Come On Teddy on their Cheltenham running. Whirling Dervish is an interesting Irish raider. Hometown Boy is in winning form and shouldn’t be far away.
1pt win – Champagne Platinum – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Hometown Boy – 10/1 @ Bet365
2:25 – Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
My Drogo has won his last two in Grade 2 company. Produced to lead soon after 2 out before he quickened clear to win at Kelso last month. Likely to be one of next season’s leading novice chasers. Likes to come off a strong pace he seems likely to get here. The one to beat.
Dreal Deal completed a four timer over hurdles when coming from the rear to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices’ Hurdle at Punchestown in January. Stays the trip and has won on good ground on the flat so the drier ground shouldn’t inconvenience either. He’s come through the ranks from a mark of 84 in handicap hurdle company. His improvement may not have ended yet and he could My Drogo most to do.
3:00 – Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
Surely a formality for Shishkin.
3:35 – Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)– 3m ½ f
Paisley Park, Thyme Hill & Roksana, first, second and third in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December renew rivalry.
Paisley Park has since finished third in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. Whilst Roksana has since occupied the same position in the Mares Hurdle at the Festival. She also finished runner-up in the race in 2019.
Thyme Hill had to miss Cheltenham and is having his first start since December. He’s goes well fresh so the absence shouldn’t be a problem.
There doesn’t look there will be much pace in the race which won’t be a positive for Paisley Park or Roksana who both prefer to come from behind. However, it shouldn’t be an issue for the more handily ridden Thyme Hill.
Vinndication returned from a four months break and back over hurdles when sixth in the Stayers Hurdle last month. That was his first run over hurdles in three years and he should be sharper for that run. Will be ridden prominently so could be suited by the way the race is run and isn’t out of this.
Lisnagar Oscar seemed to be travelling well when taking a heavy fall at the 7th in the Stayers Hurdle. Will help force the pace and he could get first run on his rivals here. Provided his confidence hasn’t been dented by that fall and I can see him going close.
Verdict: Paisley Park, Thyme Hill and Roksana are the big three. However, at the prices I am going to take a chance with Lisnagar Oscar who was still travelling well when coming down at Cheltenham.
1pt win – Lisnagar Oscar – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – (Mildmay) Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f
Happygolucky finished runner-up to Vintage Clouds in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month. That was the 7-year-old’s handicap chase debut and he’s only 2lb higher now. Goes well on a sound surface and will be tough to beat off what remains a competitive mark.
Cloudy Glen & Hold The Note were second and fourth in the 3m 2f Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time and have to be respected although the track and drop back to 3m 1f could suit the latter more than the former and he’s got an each way chance.
Kilfilum Cross is well handicapped on his best form but he hasn’t been in much form this season and his last run in the Kim Muir was a disappointing one. Needs the addition of the first-time blinkers to bring him back to life.
Lalor hasn’t raced since finishing a close-up 3rd of 10 at Cheltenham last January. Won the Grade 2 bumper here in 2017 and a Grade 1 novice hurdle the following season. Used to go well on a sound surface and showed he stayed 2m 5f at Cheltenham. How much of his old ability remains? And will he stay 3m 1f? Are two questions that need to be answered by the 9-year-old but he’s on a good mark.
Verdict: Happygolucky remains on a competitive mark after his recent second at Cheltenham and will be tough to beat if reproducing that run. Lalor is interesting on his return from a long lay off and if he stays is handicapped to go close.
1pt each way – Lalor – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
5:15 – (Grand National) Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) – 4m 2 ½ f
The ground has come for Cloth Cap who wouldn’t want the ground worse than good to soft. He’s now officially rated 14lb higher than his National mark after a win at Kelso last time. Will be tough to beat.
Discorama has been well backed in the last few days but he only carries 10-8. He’s back from a 145-day layoff but interestingly he’s 2 wins from 4 runs when racing between 121 to 365 days since his last run. He could well be suited by the race’s tempo.
Magic of Light is just 5lb higher than when finishing runner-up to Tiger Roll in the race in 2019 and must be respected. Whilst Burrows Saint won the 2019 Irish Grand National and has winning form on good ground.
Last season’s Welsh Grand National Winner Potter’s Cross is interesting in the first-time blinkers. He won last year’s virtual National and must be considered if back to last seasons best.
Lord Du Mesnil is on a good mark but really needs much softer ground than he’s likely to encounter here. The 7-year-old Farclas looks on a decent mark but his age and relative inexperience is a concern as his stamina for a marathon trip.
At a big price Sub Lieutenant can give Tabitha Worsley a great spin. Runner-up in the 2019 Topham Chase over the National fences. The 12-year-old was a high-class chaser in his prime when with Henry De Bromhead and provided plenty of encouragement that he retains plenty of ability when 4th of 10 at Ascot back in December.
Verdict: Cloth Cap is an unimaginative selection but sometimes it pays to go with the obvious one and he’s look well in. Burrows Saint has only had nine starts over fences but the 2019 Irish Grand National winner will like the good ground. Discorama & Magic Of Light won’t be far away and there will be worse 50/1 shots than Sub Lieutenant.
1pt win – Burrows Saint – 9/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Magic of Light – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
6:20 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
Balco Coastal comfortably won a bumper at Kempton on his debut under rules. He’s an exciting prospect and could be tough to beat.
The Gossiper landed a bit of gamble when winning a Wexford bumper on his debut under rules. The form of that race probably isn’t strong but he’s open to plenty of improvement for trainer Emmet Mullins who is 4-7 +10.75 6 placed with his runners sent to Britain this NH season.
Cheers
John