Hi all,
An excellent first day with two nice priced winners to give us a very healthy profit.
There are four Grade 1’s and three big field handicaps on day two of Aintree’s Grand National Festival. That’s a good mix. Although I have to say a couple of the races I haven’t looked at in great detail.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 2
1:45 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
Nicky Henderson is 3-15 with his runners in the race since 2013. He clearly likes to throw a few darts at the race and he has a couple of lively contenders in Monte Christo & Mister Coffey.
Monte Christo impressed when winning at Kempton over Christmas. Ran well for a long way in the Coral Cup and was still in contention for the places when hampered at the last. This flatter track may suit him better and he’s be open to improvement.
Mister Coffey can be keen in his races which isn’t a positive on his first start beyond an extended two mile. Only 7th in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He’s a novice chaser in waiting but he can’t be totally dismissed here given he’s only had five starts over hurdles.
Edwardstone was third in the Betfair Hurdle and then finished 5th of 25 in the County Hurdle. Shaped at Cheltenham like he was worth a go over today’s distance. Well suited to a big field handicap and Aintree’s flatter track will suit.
Wilde About Oscar won a C&D novice hurdle in the autumn and made it 4-5 over hurdles when making a winning handicap debut at Uttoxeter (good to soft) 20-days ago. The top-weight has been raised 4lb for that win but the 6-year-old can rate higher.
Jacamar won a handicap hurdle over C&D in October. He’s since improved further and was a decisive winner of a Pertemps Qualifier at Wincanton on Boxing Day. Just raced once since in a “Jumpers” bumper at Kempton. Has an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with but could still be improving if he’s as effective on today’s quicker ground.
Press Your Luck bounced back to form when runner-up at Newbury (good) 13-days ago. That was a career best effort by the 6-year-old. Up 1lb for that effort and in a better race but is going the right way.
Stolen Silver is nicely treated on his best hurdle form last season. Didn’t really take to fences in the autumn and disappointed again when pulling up over hurdles last time.
Master Debonair was a smart novice hurdler, winning a Grade 2 at Ascot, last season. Has run poorly on his next three starts, including two this season. The 7-year-old has now switched to Harry Fry and is also having his start since a wind-op. Not out of it if the stable switch has had the desired effect.
Kateson is another C&D winner and his trainer Tom Lacey saddled the winner of the race in 2018. He’s 4lb higher than when winning in December and is vulnerable to any better handicapped horses on a sound surface.
Verdict: A tough opening handicap get day two underway. The Henderson pair of Monte Christo & Mister Coffey must be respected given the trainer’s record in the race. Master Debonair is interesting on his first start for Harry Fry. Kateson’s course form bring him into the mix. Edwardstone is a player if he stays. He goes well on a flat track and won’t mind the ground. Wilde About Oscar is progressive and can go close.
1pt win – Wilde About Oscar – 8/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Monte Christo – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:20 – Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
This doesn’t look the best renewals of this race. Nicky Henderson has saddled four winners in the past 10 years. He has the ante post favourite in Dusart who won on his racecourse debut at Newbury in November beating Soaring Glory in the process. He looked a smart prospect winning that day but the fact that he’s favourite shows this isn’t the strongest of races. Can be put in the “could be anything category” For Pleasure looks a shade over priced on his 3rd of 8 behind Appreciate It in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. A tearaway front runner the track will suit him and he could hang on to get in to the money.
1pt win – For Pleasure – 11/1 @ Bet365
2:50 – (Mildmay) Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f
Chantry House looked like he could improve for a step up to 3m when winning the Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. If he does, he will be tough to beat here.
Fiddlerontheroof showed he was all about stamina when finishing runner-up to Monkfish in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. He’s yet to finish out of the first two since going over fences with his sole win coming in a beginners’ chase at Exeter in November. He only beat Silver Hallmark that day. Silver Hallmark went on to make all to win a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Haydock on his next start. He’s only had the two starts over the larger obstacles so is open to plenty of improvement. However, it was heavy at Haydock and he might need softer ground.
3:25 – (Mildmay) Marsh Chase (Registered As The Melling Chase) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Politologue won this in 2018 and finished runner-up in 2019. Was withdrawn on the day of the Champion Chase so comes here fresh. He won the Tingle Creek on his seasonal reappearance but was not match for First Flow at Ascot in January.
Dashel Drasher took the step up to Grade 1 company in his stride when winning the Ascot Chase in February. He missed Cheltenham and given his front running style he should be suited by the track.
Master Tommytucker finished runner-up in the Ascot Chase. Today’s better ground could suit and there shouldn’t be much between him and Dashel Drasher here.
Fakir D’oudairies finished runner-up to Allaho in the Ryanair Chase. He was not match for the impressive winner that day but faces nothing of that calibre here.
Nuts Well has looked much improved this season winning both his starts. He beat Aye Right on his seasonal reappearance and then won the Old Roan Handicap Chase over C&D, beating Clondaw Castle. He has a bit to find on official ratings with Politologue but isn’t ruled out on his return from 166-day absence.
4:05 – (Grand National) Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5f
Another race over the National fences. A field of 28 have been declared for this traditionally competitive race. There are plenty in with a chance.
Modus won over the Mildmay Course in November and then finished third in the Grand Sefton over the National fences a month later. Today’s better ground is a positive. His 125-day absence isn’t a negative either as his form figures when returning from a 121-day layoff are 2131161. High on the shortlist.
Precious Cargo returned from a 108-day break and wind surgery to finish 5th at Warwick. He looked the most likely winner when leading two out but he faded at the last. Was it stamina for 2m 4f or did he just need the run? If it was the latter, he’s handicapped to go close.
Besides Precious Cargo Nicky Henderson, who has won this race three times in the past ten years, also saddles Morning Vicar. The 8-year-old has only had five starts over fences and ran well for a long way until his stamina gave way in the Kim Muir last time. The drop back in trip will suit and he’s at his most effective on good/good to soft going.
Kauto Riko’s sole run this season saw him come 4th of 16 in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in November. He was doing his best work at the finish although he may have been flattered by his final position given plenty of the field didn’t give their running. If he takes to the fences, he’s got each way claims.
My Way needs the big National fences to bring out a bit more improvement to overcome his present mark. He’s a prominent runner and if he can get into a jumping rhythm isn’t out of this.
Senior Citizen has been aimed at this race all season. He was travelling like a well handicapped horse before soft ground took its toll in the Grand Sefton. He returned to action with a good effort when 4th of 14 in a competitive Newbury handicap chase (good) last month. The better the ground the better his chance.
Ravenhill Road put in a career best effort over fences when beating six rivals at Doncaster (good) last month. He’s been raised 9lb but despite being a 10-year-old is going the right way. If he takes to the fences, he’s in with a chance.
Storm Control is a bold jumping front runner as he showed when winning twice at Cheltenham in the autumn. A solid fifth in the Kim Muir last time he doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper but his jumping gives him a chance.
Willie Mullins sends over a couple contenders in Livelovelaugh & Robin Des Foret.
Livelovelaugh comes into the race on the back of two excellent placed efforts in big field handicaps at Leopardstown. Took to the fences when 11th in the 2019 Grand National, just didn’t stay that marathon trip. Fine on the ground and has a big chance but is on a losing run that goes back over three years.
Robin Des Foret is nicely treated on his best form and is just 1lb higher than when runner-up at Killarney last August. The 11-year-old isn’t the most consistent but isn’t totally ruled out. Although his stablemate is the stable’s number one hope.
Sir Jack Yeats is 4lb out of the handicap but he was 3lb out of the handicap when an excellent 2nd of 18 in the Grand Sefton in December. He took to the fences well that day and has won four times on good/good to soft going. A reproduction of his Grand Sefton run would give an each-way chance.
Verdict: You could pick three and not see any of them finish in the places. It’s that sort of race. I can’t leave Senior Citizen out. although the yard is 1-35 in the past 14-days or Special Cargo and Modus.
1pt each way – Modus – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Special Cargo – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Senior Citizen – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:40 – Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
The step up to 3m should suit Bravemansgame who was an excellent third to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle last time. He’s the one to beat on that form.
Cape Gentlemen made it 2-3over hurdles when winning the Grade 3 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton (good). Last season’s Irish Cesarewitch winner is rated 100 on the level and the best of the 5-year-old has yet to be seen over hurdles. The drying ground will suit and he could prove good enough.
Oscar Elite bounced back to his best returning to 3m when finishing runner-up in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle last time. No stamina doubts for the 6-year-old who shouldn’t be far away if replicating his Cheltenham performance.
5:15 – Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ and Amateur Riders’ Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Thistimenextyear was beaten a head in this race 2 years ago. He returns from a 667-day break but if he’s fully tuned up, he’s on a good mark. Top Irish Conditional Simon Torrens had been booked for the ride which suggests he’s set for big run.
Recent winners Taunton winners Copperless & Comprond are big contenders. The former won on his handicap debut and was suited by good ground. He’s been raised 6lb for his last win but he’s going the right way and can win again.
Comprond a winner twice on the flat when trained in France won over hurdles at the third attempt 17-days ago. That was his first start for 91-days so he could strip fitter here on his handicap hurdle debut. The 5-year-old seemed well suited by good ground last time. Trainer Philip Hobbs is 0-35 in the past 14-days.
Verdict: Copperless & Comprond are open to further improvement over hurdles. A reproduction of his run in this race two years ago would see Thistimenextyear go very close.
1pt each way – Thistimenextyear – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John