Hi all,
Before I begin this week’s notebook, I will give you some bad news. I was diagnosed with likely kidney cancer on Monday and I will be having my left kidney removed next Thursday. This means there will be no weekly notebook and weekend betting previews for the next two weeks. I’m hoping to be back in the saddle, so to speak, on Monday April 29th. Just in time for the Guineas Meeting.
This weekend it’s great one for both flat and jumps fans. At Newbury we have the Greenham Meeting which starts on Friday and features the first Guineas Trial’s: the Greenham & Fred Darling Stakes. Meanwhile up in Scotland it’s the two-day Scottish Grand National Festival at Ayr, which also starts on Friday.
Before looking at the Friday action from Ayr & Newbury lets take a quick look back at last weeks action.
Firstly, I must confess Aintree was poor one for the service. However, Kilbaha Lady eased the pain, slightly, with a 7/1 win at Redcar on Monday.
Secondly, whilst I have a couple of horses to from Aintree. This week’s two horses for the tracker come from Tuesday’s Musselburgh card.
Aintree Review
As I have mentioned before I am concentrating on the flat now, but I thought I would briefly mention a couple of runners who put up eye-catching performances at last week’s Randox Health Grand National Festival.
Friday 5th April
Point Of Principle, trained by Tim Vaughan. The 6-year-old ran a cracker to finish second in the 2m 4f, Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle. Always in a prominent position in a race which was run at a good gallop from the off. He was challenging the leader coming to the second last but a mistake there and at the last may well have cost him the race as he was run out of it in the final 100yds by a well handicapped Gordon Elliott runner. Not sure where he will go now but he’s clearly on competitive mark and although he handles a sound surface both his career wins have come on soft.
Saturday 6th April
Thistimenextyear, trained by Richard Spencer, had broke his maiden tag over hurdles when winning at Fakenham two starts back. The 5-year-old was well backed into 6/1 to follow up in the Conditional /amateur jockeys race that concluded the Saturday card. Travelling like a well handicapped horse. A mistake two out didn’t help his cause but he still ran on all the way to the line to finish just a head off the winner Chief Justice. He will rise in the weights for this effort but he’s an improving handicap hurdler who should remain on a competitive mark. A decent enough, middle-distance handicapper on the flat he could well run on the level in the coming weeks if he gets soft ground.
Grand National
I can’t not mention the Grand National. My two darts at the race Jury Duty and Joe Farrell were both well backed before the off.
Jury Duty
The 8-year-old was sent off at odds of 10/1. I thought he ran well for a long way until being hampered at the 18th and unseating his rider. I’m sure he will back again next year.
Joe Farrell
Was also well backed before the race and returned at 14/1. He was never really travelling from the off. Maybe the race came to soon after Newbury or maybe he just didn’t fancy it after a mistake at the first. He had weakened out of contention when pulling up before the second last. There will be other days for the 10-year-old.
The Rest
Of the rest Walk In The Mill ran a cracker to finish 4th and wouldn’t have been suited by the drying ground. He will no doubt be aimed at the race again next year. One For Arthur, bounced back to form with his 6th placed effort. This was his best run since winning the 2017 renewal. He looked to be making notable headway four out and looked sure to place but his effort just flattened out coming to the last. Last year’s runner-up Pleasant Company who had jumped magnificently, was still in contention, when making his sole mistake and unseating his jockey four out. Ballyoptic was also in the process of running a big race when also falling four out. He was just starting to come under pressure at the time. However, it’s not hard to think both he and Pleasant Company could have finished in the money. Although, I doubt either would have beaten Tiger Roll.
This Weeks Horses to Follow
Given the lack of flat action last week it’s a quiet one on the tracker horse front this week.
Tuesday 2nd April
Musselburgh
City Tour, trained by Mark Johnston. The 3-year-old was making his seasonal reappearance in the 7f handicap for 3-year-old only. The son of Dutch Art had shown promise on three starts as a juvenile most notably when finishing 4th of 14 in Doncaster maiden on the final day of the flat season.
Drawn out wide on his handicap debut. He did well to win given how keen he was, without cover, in the early part of the race. He only held on by a short head but was value for a bigger win.
The handicapper has only put this improving colt up 3lb for this success and he looks capable of winning more and better races with this run under his belt.
Fennaan, trained by rookie trainer Philip Makin. The 4-year-old was having his first start for the trainer since switching from the John Gosden stable.
Another who was drawn out wide in stall 11. He was easy to back before the off but ran a race full of promise in finishing 5th of 10. Racing in the first-time hood. the gelding was only beaten 3 ½ lengths at the line. Given his wide passage this effort can be marked up.
This run should have put the gelding cherry ripe fitness wise and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb after this good effort. He’s on a winnable mark, 1lb lower than for his last win at Kempton. He should win a handicap like for his new trainer in the coming weeks.
Weekend Betting Preview – Part 1
We have some good action at Ayr & Newbury on Friday. Indeed, it’s more akin to a Saturday than a Friday.
Ayr
2:20- Remus Uomo Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m
Our Lucas, is having his first run for Iain Duncan. The 7-year-old is 13lb higher than when runner-up in this race 12 months ago and 6lb higher than when winning at Perth back in August. Well suited to good ground his two best performances on Racing Post Ratings have come on such going. Up against horses from the Henderson & King yards. Latter, who won last year’s race, saddles Deyrann De Carjec. The 6-year-old is back in handicap company for the first time since falling two in the valuable Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham back in November. Suited by good ground he looks the one to beat here.
Our Lucas – 10/1 – Gen – each way
Deyrann De Carjec – 9/2 – Gen
2:55 – Seko Logistics Scotland Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 3m ½ f
Rhythm Is A Dancer, put in a career best when making all to win at Ludlow 43-days ago. Got his own way out in front that day and probably won’t get an uncontested lead here. Interestingly this will be the 6-year-old first run going left-handed. He’s well suited to quick ground and could easily bolt up but at 2/1 I can happily let him win.
Second in the market is the Neil King trained Myplaceatmidnight. He also made all to Plumpton 32 days ago. Up for 4lb for that win he won’t be far away here if he stays the 3m.
Landofsmiles, trained by Peter Bowen, is a six-race maiden over hurdles but up a career best when beaten just a neck on his first start at around 3m at Uttoxeter 13-days ago. The 6-year-old was doing his best work at the finish and the stronger the gallop the better his chance is.
Myplaceatmidnight – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Landofsmiles – 13/2 @ William Hill & Coral
3:25 – Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 4 ½ f
Nicky Henderson saddles River Wylde & Gold Present. Both have chances but my slight preference is for the first named who’s the choice of Nico De Boinville. The 8-year-old has just had the four starts over fences. Was in the process of running a big race on his seasonal reappearance and first start since a wind operation when falling at the last at Haydock. Ran poorly at Cheltenham last time but a return to better ground and a flatter track should suit him. Remains a horse with potential over fences.
Dan Skelton has won this race for the past two years. He saddles last years winner Value At Risk and Born Survivor. The former isn’t the most consistent of horses but he’s on a competitive mark if on a going day. Born Survivor is just 3lb higher than when winning at Wetherby on his seasonal reappearance back in November. The 8-year-old returns from a 101-day absence but his form figure when racing off a 90+ day break are 211 so fitness shouldn’t be a problem. Has probably been trained for this and must have a good chance of giving the trainer a 3rd successive win in the race.
Born Survivor – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
5:05 – Fosters Your Local Family Funeral Directors Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 3m ½ f
The front two in the betting, From Eden & My Way look solid here. Both are taking a step up in distance, so stamina for an extended three miles must be taken on trust.
My Way was a good second at Kempton 27-days ago and although he needs to settle better to stay 3m he shapes like he can improve for the step up in trip her. His trainer Paul Nicholls won this race in 2014.
No stamina issues for the Tom George trained Stop The World who put in a career best when runner-up at Exeter 19-days ago over 2m 7f. He’s improving with racing and each way claims. Another with place claims is Shoal Bay. The 6-year-old has 5 ½ lengths to find with My Way on their Kempton running but he gets a 3lb pull and the first-time blinkers today.
My Way – 7/2 @ William Hill & Coral
Newbury
2:35 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Kick On Kick On, trained by Clive Cox, has a great record fresh and has won first time up for the past two seasons. Three from seven over 5f and he handles soft ground. Solid chance here.
Charlie Hills won this race in 2014 and he runs Spoof, who might prefer a sounder surface, but he looks on a competitive mark.
Moon Trouble, was running a Group 3, 11 months ago, when trained in France. Was very keen on his first start for Michael Appleby when 6th of 11 at Kempton 13-days ago. The return to 5f and the addition of the first-time hood make him a contender off a mark of 90.
Kick On Kick On – 11/4 @ William Hill
3:40 – Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
There are doubts about the soft ground for the likes of Beat Le Bon & Blonde Warrior.
Reeves, end last season when winning a 7f Doncaster maiden, on good to soft ground, back in October. The 3-year-old was quietly progressive on his six starts last season and his Doncaster win was a career best. I suspect there are runners in the field who will rate higher than their present marks as the season goes on. But this is sort of handicap that might not be win by the best horse. Reeves has been gelded over the winter and if it can eke out a bit more improvement then he could be able to defy a mark of 84.
Reeves – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John