Hi all,
Almost at the end of a challenging week. Probably the worst week the service has endured in years. I’m planning a few days off to recharge the batteries but will be back for the start of the flat turf season at Doncaster next weekend.
Before that I have one final attempt to end the week on a winning note. The Irish flat season starts at the Curragh on Sunday, with feature race, of a competitive eight-race card, being the Irish Lincolnshire. Interestingly Ryan Moore has gone over for four rides for Aidan O’Brien, including a ride in the first 2-year-old race of the new season. And a ride on the superbly bred Joan Of Arc, full sister to Gleneagles, who holds an English 1000 Guineas entry.
The second most valuable race of the day is the Randox Ulster National at Downpatrick which has attracted a field of 15 handicap chasers.
I have selections from both meetings.
Curragh
4:10 – Paddy Power Irish Lincolnshire (Premier Handicap) – 1m
Gee Rex heads the market. A winner of C&D handicap last summer (good) when trained by Joseph O’Brien. Now with the shrewd Emmet Mullins he recent prep over hurdles at Leopardstown and should be spot on fitness wise for this. Can win races for new connections this season.
Teed Up improved on his last four starts in 2020 with form figures 1121 and hasn’t finished outside the first two on all his six starts. Ended last season with a heavy ground success over an extended mile at Galway. Up 3lb for his Galway win and should continue to improve further as a 4-year-old.
Maker Of Kings looked unlucky in a C&D handicap last September and followed up at Tipperary, beating Teed Up by 1 ¼ lengths. Must give 3lb to Teed Up here but there shouldn’t be much between the pair here. Trainer Ger Lyons saddled the winner of this in 2017 & 2019.
Michael Mulvany saddled the winner in 2018 and he’s got a couple of lively contenders In From The Cold & Comfort Line. Both his runners have been trained for the race and have live chances.
In From The Cold made a winning seasonal reappearance at Naas last March and ended the season with another win at the venue. A very tough horse who likes testing ground and looks to have a handy low draw in stall 2.
Comfort Line also has a decent draw in stall 3. Ended last season when making all to win over 7f at Gowran Park (heavy). Looks the sort who can improve as a 4-year-old and after his Gowran Park win the trainer told the Racing Post “The Irish Lincoln is the plan for him”. Dylan Browne McMonagle has been booked to take of a handy 5lb.
Shelia Lavery saddles a couple of lively outsiders in Quizical and Breaking Story and latter looks the most interesting of the pair. Breaking Story is just 1-14 on the turf but he often runs well in these types of handicaps and posted his best RPR when 3rd of 20 in the Irish Cambridgeshire over C&D. (heavy) last August. He was only beaten ¾ length at the finish and can race off 4lb lower here. The only negative his draw in stall 27.
Verdict: I really like the claims of Teed Up and I hope he can win. Michael Mulvany has a couple lively outsiders in In From The Cold & Comfort Line. On drying ground, I just prefer the claims of Comfort Line who has also the added assistance of a talented 5lb claimer in the saddle. Another capable of a bold show is the nicely treated Breaking Story but his high draw is off putting.
2pts win – Teed Up – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Comfort Line – 40/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
5:10 – Breaking News is second reserve so probably won’t get into the race. The filly gained her first success at the 12th attempt when winning a 6f Naas maiden(heavy) on her final start of 2020. That was her first run over 6f and she improved for it. Unexposed over sprint trips she looks capable of winning a soft/heavy ground sprint handicap this spring.
1pt win – Breaking News – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Downpatrick
3:47 – Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase – 3m 4 ½ f
The going is yielding for this marathon trip and it looks a good renewal of the race.
Shady Operator heads the market. The 8-year-old won a Cross Country at Punchestown last time and trainer Edna Bolger saddled the winner of this race in 2015. Decent chance of staying 3m 4f and looks set to go well.
Space Cadet won this 12 months ago, off 4lb lower. Finished 6 ½ lengths behind Shady Operator at Punchestown but that was only his second start back since winning this race and should be fitter for it. The blinkers he wore for the first time when winning this last year return for the first time since.
Fag An Bealach won a beginners’’ chase here on her debut over fences but hasn’t built on her win in novices handicap chase at Naas in November. On pedigree she’s bred to stay well and trainer Arthur Moore is 2-4 with his runners in the past 14-days.
Mon Lino just the 1 win from 15 starts over fences but has good form in valuable handicap chases, finished 3rd of 14 in the Leinster National 12 months ago and showed he’s well suited to a test of stamina when runner up in a valuable 3m 5f handicap chase at Fairyhouse last season. Has placed on both his last two starts over hurdles and must be respected here with Simon Torrens taking off a handy 5lb.
Nick Lost ran with plenty of encouragement on his first start back after a 668-day absence at Thurles two starts back. Never got competitive and was pulled up in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown just 18-days later. The 9-year-old has a few questions to answer after that performance but it’s possible he bounced. All three of his career wins have come on good ground.
Mervyn Torrens saddled the winner of this in 2011 and he runs Askann here. The mare put in a career best when 3rd of 20 at Leopardstown two starts back. She disappointed on her return from 67-day break when 7th of 9 in mares only handicap chase at Navan 15-days ago. Handles a sound surface and has shaped like she can stay further than 3m.
Keith Watson won this in 2019 with Amaulino who also finished runner-up in last year’s race. He runs again here and must be respected. However, he may have better each-way contender in Frankly All Talk. The 8-year-old is 2-9 over fences and wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 15 at Punchestown in December. Two runs over hurdles since and returns to fences with the first-time blinkers applied.
Verdict: If Shady Operator can reproduce his Punchestown Cross Country running back over regulation fences he’s got a great chance. Last year’s winner Space Cadet should be spot on fitness wise after his third behind Shady Operator last month. Mon Lino isn’t the most consistent of horses over fences but is handicapped to go close if at his best. If you forgive Nick Lost his last run at Punchestown then he’s got to be on the shortlist for the Henry De Bromhead/Rachel Blackmore combination. The mare’s Askann and Fag An Bealach could be capable of improvement for today’s marathon trip and the first time blinkered Frankly All Talk could out run big odds.
1pt win – Mon Lino – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Nick Lost – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John