Hi all,
A much better day yesterday and even a winner courtesy of Telmesomethinggirl at an early priced advised 8/1.
The final day is here and it’s normally my quietest of the week on the betting front. Not this year though, as there is a few I fancy. Let’s hope we end the Festival with another winner or two.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 4
1:20 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
I advised Zanahiyr 4/1 ante post. I’m happy with that. That said it’s a cracker of a race with Tritonic advertising his credentials for the race when winning the Adonis at Kempton last month. Add in Zanahiyr’s former stablemate Quilixios, now with Henry De Bromhead who won the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival and you have the makings of a good race.
Verdict: Zanahiyr for me but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the big three won.
1:55 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f
A competitive big field handicap hurdle. In the past six years it has been won by just two trainers: Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton.
The Willie Mullins trained Ganapathi head the betting. The 5-year-old failed to stay 2m 6f in Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. However, a strongly run 2m should be the ideal for this strong traveller on his handicap debut. Could be well handicapped off a mark of 140.
Third Time Lucki is another handicap debutant. He’s one three of his five starts over hurdle and although he was beaten at Musselburgh last time, he’s another who should be suited a strong run race. Well fancied and trainer Dan Skelton has won this three times since 2016.
You Raised Him Up has been in good form this season winning both his two starts. Returned from a winter break to put in a career best on RPR’s when winning a Naas novice hurdle over 2m 3f last month. A truly run 2m on a track with a stiff finish should be ideal for the 8-year-old who can be seen to better effect on better ground.
Champagne Gold is one of the least experienced horse in the field. He’s just had the four starts but he posted a career best effort on his handicap debut when 2nd of 22 in the valuable Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown. He’s rated 12lb higher by the British handicapper so needs to find more improvement. His lightly raced enough to think he can find it.
Eclair De Beaufeu had just been headed when unseating his jockey at the last in this in 2019. He also finished runner-up in the Grand Annual at last season’s festival. Back over hurdles on his three starts, he was never nearer than at the finish when sixth in the Ladbrokes last time. Ground more in his favour today and gets a handy weight pull from the winner & runner-up today.
Fifty Ball & Edwardstone finished second and third in the Betfair Hurdle. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair. Both can go well. The latter should be well suited to a strongly run 2m 1f. A sound surface suits and he’s 2-2 when racing at around 2m 1f. Two starts here in the Supreme and Greatwood Hurdle were respectable but he may be better on a flatter track. That said he’s got solid each way claims.
Gowel Road is good novice hurdler who comes into the race after two wins at Newbury and the first- time cheekpieces are applied for the 5-year-old’s return to handicap company.
Cayd Bay is 2-5 over hurdles and has experience of big field handicaps having won a 17-runner valuable handicap at Down Royal two starts back. The 6-year-old has yet to race on ground better than soft but looks like the sort who could improve for better ground. Returns from a 110-day break here which isn’t a negative as he’s a perfect 3-3 when returning from a 121-day layoff.
Verdict: Edwardstone looks an ideal type for a race like this provided he’s not better suited to a flatter track. Third Time Lucki must be respected given his trainer’s record in the race. The Irish have a strong hand of contenders the potentially well treated Ganapathi, and the likes of You Raised Me Up, Champagne Gold & Cayd Bay.
1pt win – Champagne Gold – 7/1 @Bet365
1pt win – You Raised Me Up – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Cayd Bay – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
2:30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
The Grade 1 Albert Bartlett is a severe test of a novice’s stamina, and especially on soft ground. It probably won’t be as testing as last year when it was won by Monkfish.
This year’s race doesn’t look the strongest of renewals and its open looking race.
For a Grade 1 race it can often produce a shock result. In the past ten years five winners were returned between 14/1 to 50/1, so don’t be put off if your fancy is at big odds.
Of the five winners who won 11/1 & under. All five won last time out, they all had run at least three times over hurdles and interestingly they hadn’t run in a Grade 1 previously.
Those trends bring the likes of Torygraph, Barbados Bucks, Alaphilippe, Threeunderthrufive and Adrimel into the mix. Of that group I like the claims of the first named most.
Torygraph comes into the race an improving staying novice hurdler after wins in maiden/novice company at Fairyhouse and Thurles 51-days ago. Has yet to race on ground better than soft/heavy over hurdles but if he handles today’s quicker ground looks set for a good run in the first time cheekpieces.
At bigger odds you can’t dismiss the claims of Streets Of Doyen. The 7-year-old improved for the step up to 3m in the autumn making it 4-4 over the distance when winning here in October. Good prep for this over an inadequate 2m on soft ground at Naas 19-days ago. May lack the class of some of his rivals but he’s tough, stays well and will like the drying ground.
Verdict: Plenty of these will be facing decent ground for the first time, including my fancy Torygraph. One who won’t mind the drying ground is Streets Of Doyen.
1pt win – Torygraph – 6/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Streets Of Doyen – 9/1 @ Bet365
3:05 – WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f
The race of the meeting and the whole jumps season.
Al Boum Photo bids for a hat trick of wins in the race and must have a good chance of doing it. His claims are there for all to see. However, he faces a couple of serious rivals in A Plus Tard and Champ.
I didn’t think A Plus Tard would stay 3m in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown but it was stamina that win him the day as he got up to nail Kemboy in the final strides. The runner-up has boasted the form when winning the Irish Gold Cup next time. He’s got two furlongs further to travel here but shapes like he will stay and could even improve for the new distance.
Champ has had an unusual prep for this, running over 2m in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month. To run a specialist two miler like Sceau Royal to two lengths was some effort and showed what a good engine he has. Last year’s RSA Novices’ Chase winner should stay 3m 2f and as a second season chaser must be high on the shortlist.
I wouldn’t totally rule a return to form by A Plus Tard’s stablemate Minello Indo. Runner-up to Champ in last seasons’ RSA Novices’ Chase. He looked set for a good season when winning his first two starts. Normally a solid jumper he blocked his copybook when falling in the Savills Chase over Christmas. He does need to bounce back from a laboured performance in last months Irish Gold Cup but a return to Cheltenham could see him do so.
Verdict: Al Boum Photo’s claims are clear for all to see. Both A Plus Tard & Champ are the young pretenders. I was really warming to A Plus Tard’s chance but he’s now joint favourite with Al Boum Photo. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see A Plus Tard’s stablemate Minella Indo bounce back from a poor run at Leopardstown, now back at Cheltenham. I have taken Al Boum Photo on for the last two years and at the prices I’m just going with Champ.
1pt win – Champ – 11/2 @ Bet365
I haven’t looked at the next two races in any detail and I won’t be betting in the Mares Chase.
3:40 – St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – 3m 2 ½ f
Staker Wallace was only 4th of 21 in this race 12 months ago but he was short of experience compared to his rivals that day and he went into my notebook for this race. He’s improved since and posted a career best on RPR’s when runner-up to Billaway in a hunter chase at Naas at 47-days ago. Not a race I have looked at in much detail but I might have a bet on him.
1pt win – Staker Wallace – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
The first running of the race and Willie Mullins has the first and second in the ante post betting in Elimay & Colreevy. Shattered Love won the Grade 1 novices’ chase here in 2018. She ran a good trial for this when runner-up to Elimay at Naas last month. That performance came over 2m and she’s a better over today’s trip. Magic Of Light is the highest rated of the 11 runners but the 2019 Grand National runner-up needs a longer trip to be seen at her best.
4:50 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Not sure how deep a race this year’s renewal of the race.
Willie Mullins has won this race three times in the past ten years and he’s got handicap debutants Gentlemen De Mee & Galopin Des Champshigh up in the ante post betting for this year’s race.
Gentlemen De Mee looked a good hurdling prospect when winning on his first start for the trainer at Naas last month. The 5-year-old is open to any amount of improvement especially for the step up to 2m 4f. Granted he’s only had three career starts so lack the experience of his rivals but could be very well in here off a mark of 139.
Galopin Des Champs is another 5-year-old. Just the four career starts. A winner when trained in France. He made a good debut for the Mullins yard when finishing runner-up to a useful sort in Sea Ducor at Gowran Park. He ran as if something was amiss when pulling up in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Limerick over Christmas. Wasn’t disgraced when 6th of 13 to stablemate Appreciate It in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. On pedigree should be suited by 2m 4f and is contender.
Langer Dan has just a 5lb penalty to carry for his easy win in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday. He’s 5lb well in here and should go well but the ground will be much quicker today and his stamina for 2m 4f must be proven.
Frontal Assault looked a useful stayer when winning a Thurles novice hurdle (2m 7 ½ f) three starts back. The 6-year-old flopped when fancied for his handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown, said to have run to keen in the first-time blinkers. Much more like it when beating five rivals in a Grade 3 at Navan 26-days ago in the re-applied cheekpieces. Not sure 2m 4f on good ground will play to his strengths but the yard had 2017 & 2018 winners and second and third in 2019. The yard also saddles Dallas Des Pictons who was runner-up in the race in 2019 and isn’t totally out of it.
Commandingpresence gives the Irish a strong hand in the race. The Henry De Bromhead trained 6-year-old won on his hurdle debut at Punchestown (yielding) back in September. Was just in the lead when falling at the last in a Listed hurdle at Limerick. Didn’t seem to enjoy the heavy ground when only 5th of 6 in a 3m Grade 3 at Cork 103-days ago. Goes well fresh and is interesting on his handicap debut on better ground. Yard among the winners already this week.
Verdict: A small short list for the concluding race of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. They will need to go hard to bring Frontal Assault’s stamina into play. Langer Dan bids for the 50k bonus for winning the Imperial Cup. However, the ground is going to be different today. The Mullins pair of Gentlemen De Mee & Galopin Des Champs could be on good marks, in particularly the first named. The lightly raced Commandingpresence should like today’s better ground. He hails from an inform yard and can get into the money.
2pts win – Gentlemen De Mee – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Commandingpresence – 25/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John