Hi all,
We’re half way through the festival and if it wasn’t for my ante post bet on Monkfish (4/1). I would be tearing my hair out, especially after Entoucas went so close in the Grand Annual. The pressure is on for a big Thursday and it’s going to be a case of death or glory tomorrow.
Looking at yesterday’s times the going was a shade quicker than the official going description and little rain, if any, is forecast.
The action switches to the New Course for Thursday & Friday. Plenty to like about today’s card. The star of the show is undoubtedly the unbeaten Envoi Allen. There’s also a highly competitive renewal of the Ryanair Chase (2:40). Add in three big field handicaps and three of my ante post selections running: Sire De Berlais, Lisnagar Oscar & Skyace and it’s a day to get excited about.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 2
1:20 – Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered as The Golden Miller) – 2m 4f
Seven rivals are set to take on Envoi Allen.
Envoi Allen fan and I hope and expect him to make it 12-12 under rules. I’m not an odds-on punter but the 4/6 that is available looks value to me. Can anything beat the 7-year-old? Not for me. However, if the dead eight do stand their ground then punters do have an each-way betting opportunity.
Chatham Street Lad won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over C&D in December and has place claims. Chantry House made it 2-3 over fences when winning at Wetherby 29-days ago. Although Shishkin won on Tuesday. I would want to see some good runs from the Henderson horses on Wednesday to get involved here.
The bold Jumping Shan Blue should ensure this a good test of jumping and stamina. Last season’s Champion Hurdle third Darver Star has yet to show he’s as good a chaser as hurdler. However, the step up to 2m 4f could be what the 9-year-old needs.
Verdict: Envoi Allen to with Chantry House and Darver Star fighting out for the places.
1:55 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m
A field of twenty-three are set to race. I have a small but select shortlist for the race
The Bosses Oscar is well fancied. Runner-up in a qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas and a fair fifth in last year’s Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle the 6-year-old ticks plenty of trend boxes and Jordon Gainford takes off a handy 7lb.
There was plenty to like about Imperial Alcazar’s win in a Warwick qualifier. He was strong at the finish that day and is having just his second start in a handicap. The 7-year-old he’s been raised 8lb for that success and provided he handles the likely quicker surface won’t be far away.
Third in the Warwick race was Come On Teddy. The 7-year-old built on a C&D win back in December and gets 8lb, for a 5-length defeat here. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair here.
Champagne Platinum didn’t look a natural on his four starts over fences last season. Not surprisingly connections decided to return to the smaller obstacles this season. The 7-year-old ran with encouragement when 3rd of 12 at Newbury on his seasonal return in November. Off since that run, he returned to action finishing runner-up in a Qualifier at Haydock 26-days ago.
The lightly raced Milliner has sneaked into the race as first reserve. The 8-year-old has returned from 762-day absence with promising 5th of 20 at Navan and improved on that run when 3rd of 16 in a Punchestown qualifier 17-days ago. Two out, he looked like would go onto justify favoritism, but maybe just didn’t get home on soft ground. Solid claims on better ground and if produced a bit later this time.
Verdict: The Bosses Oscar & Imperial Alcazar have obvious claims as does previous C&D Come On Teddy. Champagne Platinum ran an ideal trial for this at Haydock last time and better ground won’t inconvenience him. Milliner has sneaked into the race on a nice light weight.
1pt win – The Bosses Oscar – 6/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Milliner – 8/1 @ Bet365
2:30 – Ryanair Chase (Registered as The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
Fourteen are set to go to post for what looks the most competitive of the non-handicap’s races at the festival. In fact, I think it’s the race of the meeting.
Willie Mullins saddles four Min, Allaho, Melon & Tornado Flyer. Paul Townend has opted for last year’s winner Min. The 10-year-old ran like something was amiss when pulling up behind Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown last month. Interestingly since Min has moved up in distance to 2m 4f/2m 5f his form figures are 1211111. He should make a bold bid to retain his crown.
Allaho third in last season’s RSA Novices’ Chase bounced back to something like his best when winning a Grade 2 at Thurles 50-days ago. This looks the 7-year-old’s optimum trip and Rachel Blackmore takes the ride.
Melon was beaten a nose in last year’s Marsh Novices’ Chase. A close-up third to A Plus Tard in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The hold up tactics didn’t work in the Irish Gold Cup last time and a return to a prominent ride back down in trip should see him to better effect. Has run some races here in the past and although he’s yet to win. His form figures are 23222.
Mister Fisher put in a career best over fences when winning the rearranged Grade 2 Peterborough Chase over C&D in December. He was 4th in last year’s Marsh behind Melon but the drying ground will be in his favour today. The 7-year-old to find a bit more improvement to beat Min and Saint Calvados but he remains open to finding it. Solid claims.
Imperial Aura a winner of the novices’ handicap chase here, beating Galvin, 12 months ago. The 7-year-old won his first two starts this season, However, the normally solid jumper only got as far as the second fence, before unseating his rider at Kempton in January. If his confidence hasn’t been dented, he’s got a similar chance to Mister Fisher.
Fakir D’oudairies bounced back to form when finishing runner-up to Chacun Pour Soi at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival. Last year’s Arkle runner-up should relish the return to 2m 4f and looks set for a big performance.
Samcro has become a bit of a forgotten horse. Last season’s Marsh winner is 2-2 at the course and although he hasn’t been seen to best effect on either start this season. A return to a sounder surface will suit the 9-year-old and he can’t be dismissed easily.
Verdict: I think this is a real cracker of a renewal. It’s not often you get a Grade 1 race where you can make a case for eight of the field. Min & Saint Calvados are the ones to beat on last year’s form. Mister Fisher will appreciate the drying ground and Fakir D’oudairies remains open to more progress over the trip. A bounce back to form by Samcro wouldn’t be the biggest surprise.
1pt win – Mister Fisher – 8/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Samcro – 10/1 @ Bet365
3:05 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
Despite losing Thyme Hill to injury. There’s still a strong field of fifteen staying hurdlers declared to run. I have already advised Sire De Berlais – 14/1 (each way) and Lisnagar Oscar– 50/1 (each way) and I’m expecting big runs from both.
All eyes on Paisley Park who looks set to go off favourite in his bid to regain his Stayers Hurdle crown. After disappointing in this race 12 months ago. The 9-year-old has returned action in good form and looked as good as ever when winning the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December.
Flooring Porter made all to win a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. The 6-year-old is on the upgrade and only has a 1lb to find with Paisley Park on RPR’s. Looks set for a big run but won’t find it easy to boss this field like he did last time.
Beacon Edge got the better of Fury Road (neck) in the Boyne Hurdle last month. The 7-year-old was getting 2lb from Fury Road that day but I think he can confirm that form. This is his first start beyond 2m 5f but he should stay and there’s a good chance he can improve for today’s longer trip.
Verdict: I’m already on Sire De Berlais & Lisnagar Oscar.Paisley Park’s claims are clear. Flooring Porter is the potential new kid on the block staying hurdler. Beacon Edge is classy at 2m 4f but looks worth a try at 3m and has each-way claims.
1pt each way – Beacon Edge – 18/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:40 – Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
The Shunter heads the market back over fences. Won the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso 12-days ago. He’s better handicapped and unexposed over fences, Today’s extended 2m 4f will suit and Jordon Gainford takes off 7lb.
The Unit & Champagne Court were third and fourth at Warwick 20-days ago. The former confirmed that he retains plenty of ability and he’ll like today’s sounder surface ground. The latter has been disappointing since winning two of his first three starts over fences last season. Dropped back to 2m 4f and racing in the first time cheekpieces he put in his best performance of the season and is nicely weighted.
Happy Diva won the BetVictor Gold Cup here last season and finished runner-up in this 12 months ago. Now 4lb lower and if she can reproduce last year’s effort, she won’t be far away at track that suits.
Mister Whitaker finished third in last season’s race. A three-time course winner, including C&D in April 2019, off 1lb lower. He’s just had two starts this season, has likely been trained for the race and has winning form on good ground.
Farclas has run well on his last two starts in valuable handicap chases at Leopardstown. The 2018 Triumph Hurdle winner has won three times on good ground in the past so drying ground won’t be an issue. Might be better over further but a strongly run will suit.
Dead Right is 5lb higher and a much deeper race than when winning at Market Rasen in September. First run since but it’s worth noting he’s 3-3 when racing after a 150+ day break and 3-5 on good ground. Not totally out of this if the ground is quick enough with Tom Scudamore booked for the ride.
Verdict: The Shunter is a worthy favourite albeit looks plenty short enough. Farclas has been running well in big field handicaps and today’s better ground will suit. Mister Whitaker & Dead Right have each way chances.
1pt each way – Mister Whitaker – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Dead Right – 30/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
4:15 – Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered as The Dawn Run) – 2m 1f
Another excellent sized field of fifteen are set to meet the starter. It’s a very open looking contest with the bookies going 11/2 the field.
I have already advised the ‘Shark’ Hanlon trained Skyace- 25/1 (each way). The mare was my first Cheltenham ante post selection and I remain hopeful she can finish in the first three.
Willie Mullins has saddled all five winners of the race. He brings over four for this year’s renewal. Gauloise, Hook Up, Glens Of Antrim & Pont Avel. The first named is the choice of Paul Townend but its Hook Up that interests me more. The 5-year-old putting a career best effort when a 7 ½ length fourth to Appreciate It in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. She was likely flattered by her proximity to Tuesday’s Supreme winner but it was still an excellent effort from the mare. Her jumping needs to improve but if it does, she a big player.
Roseys Hollow, Royal Kahala and Gauloise were first, second and third in a Grade 3 Fairyhouse last month.
Roseys Hollow was strong at the finish to win by two lengths. She was getting 4lb from the runner-up but I fancy she confirm that form with both the second and the third. Both hurdle wins have come on heavy so good to soft ground is a bit of an unknown but her half sister was at her best on a sound ground so there’s every chance she can be effective on it.
Telmesomethinggirl won three of her four hurdles starts in mares’ only races last summer. She returned from a 140-day break to finish an excellent 3rd of 20 (behind yesterday’s Coral Cup winner Heaven Help Us), in a mares’ only handicap at Leopardstown last month. Drying a ground, a positive, two wins on good and set for a good run for a yard among the winners this week.
Verdict: I’m more than happy with my each -way ante post selection Skyace (25/1) in an open looking race. Of those at the front of the market Hook Up and the improving Roseys Hollow are big players as is Telmesomethinggirl.
1pt win – Telmesomethinggirl – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Roseys Hollow – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:50 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f
My initial fancy Time To Get Up is sadly now a non-runner. There are a few in with a chance here.
Kilfilum Cross and Bob Mahler were second and third in last year’s race. They are handicapped to dead heat on that form. Neither has much form to show this season but better can be expected back here. Slight preference is for Kilfilum Cross on this ground who also finished runner-up in the race in 2019.
Plan Of Attack a progressive handicap chaser last season was fourth in this race 12 months ago. The 8-year-old pulled up on his first two starts this season (excuses on both occasions) but shaped much better when 8th of 22 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Blinkers go on for the first time and he’s got winning form on good ground.
Storm Control looked much improved stepping up to 3m 1f+ when making all to win twice here in November & December. He pulled up in Warwick’s Classic Chase last time but likely didn’t stay 3m 5f on soft ground. Better expected from the 8-year-old who would be hard to pass if allowed to dominate out in front.
Paul Nicholls – 0 winners from 8 runners in the race saddles dual course winner Shantou Flyer who also finished third in last season’s Foxhunters. Finished fourth to Time To Get Up at Wincanton but that was the 11-year-old’s first start for Nicholls and his first since last year’s Festival so he will likely have needed the run.
Hold The Note is 0 from 9 over fences but he does tick all the above trend boxes and was 3rd of 20 behind Imperial Aura here 12 months ago. The 7-year-old showed he stayed 3m when a close-up 2nd of 6 at Newbury last month. That was his first run since wind surgery and he’s on a decent mark if he can see out today’s extra two furlongs.
I have heard good things about handicap debutant Milanford. A winning pointer last year he’s only had three starts over fences and he looks to be on a workable mark off 138. Handicap debutants are 1-15 5 places in the race in the past 10-years but the one winner did come in last season’s race.
There’s also been positive vibes about Morning Vicar’s chance. Unexposed over fences just the four starts. The 8-year-old will appreciate the drying ground although stamina for 3m 2f must be taken on trust.
Verdict: Kilfilum Cross hasn’t been in great form this season but he’s finished runner-up in this for the last two seasons and has each way claims. Plan Of Attack looks interesting in the first time blinkers and will like the better ground. Storm Control form around here means he’s got be respected.
1pt each way – Kilfilum Cross – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Plan Of Attack – 8/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John