Hi all,
Running late this morning.
Yesterday’s selections where a bit like watching a moving a slow-motion car crash until Stormy Judge stayed on strongly to win the race of the day at Navan and was even returned a decent price at 8/1.
Just two days now to Cheltenham and the best of Sunday’s action is across the Irish Sea with the most valuable race being the Grade A Leinster National Handicap Chase (2:30), the supporting races include along a couple of Grade 3 contests at Naas. At Limerick there’s also Graded action with the highlights being a mares’ only Grade 2 Novices Chase and a Grade 3 mares’ only novice hurdle.
This side of the Irish Sea. Warwick has a competitive eight-race card and there’s all-weather action at Lingfield.
Naas
2:30 – BARONERACING.COM Leinster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m ½ f
Sixteen handicap chasers have been declared to run for the €47,200 winners prize, on going that is being described as soft to heavy.
There doesn’t look be any notable improving types among the runners. Willie Mullins has two of the leading fancies in Saturnas & Class Conti. The pair were 4th & 3rd respectively in the Thyestes Chase. The former shaped well in the first time cheekpieces but may prefer better ground. No issues with heavy for Class Conti and on this ground, I fancy he can finish ahead of his stablemate again.
Ten Ten was pulled up in Thyestes (7/1) but did better when 2nd of 13 over hurdles at Fairyhouse 15-days ago. He’s one of six JP McManus owned runners in the field and is the choice of Mark Walsh. If you draw a line through his Thyestes run, he’s a contender and he did win a beginners’ chase here (2m 4f) last season.
Another JP runner Scoir Mear has been running well in handicap chases this season and the 11-year-old should give his running once again with Simon Torrens again taking off 5lb. Each way claims given his consistency.
Fitzhenry is on a competitive enough mark on the best of his form.He’s often run well in these valuable handicap chases but he’s been well out of form on his four starts this season. Over three years since last win and he’s edging down the weights. Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride and if the 11-year-old was to bounce back to form he would have a good chance.
The final McManus horse to interest me is Castle Oliver. The 7-year-old was well placed to win three times over fences in the early part of 2020, including a handicap chase here over 2m 4f. He was then sent off the 11/4 favourite for this but didn’t jump with much fluency and ran flat in finishing eighth. Didn’t run to badly on his seasonal reappearance, although his jumping was a bit rusty in the early stages, before pulling up before the last in the Punchestown Grand National Trial. That was his first start for 343-days so he should come on for it and isn’t without a chance if he does.
Smoking Gun bounced back to something close to his best when 3rd of 8 at Cork three starts back. He was sent off the 3/1 favourite that and was again well fancied (10/1) when pulling up in the Thyestes on his next start. He was pulled up again Punchestown Grand National Trial on his last start. Likely on a workable mark but needs the addition of the first-time blinkers to work the oracle if he’s to win this though.
Rocky’s Silver ran well to finish runner-up in the Cork National (3m 4f) back in November. Returned to form, after two low key runs, when just touched off over an extended 2m at Thurles 17-days ago. Return this trip will suit given the 8-year-old is a strong stayer as will the soft/heavy ground.
Verdict: I can see both Fitzhenry & Castle Oliver coming back to form here and at the prices the latter makes each way appeal. Rocky’s Silver has solid claims back at 3m.
1pt each way – Castle Oliver – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Rocky’s Silver – 9/1 @ Bet365
Hi all,
Another couple of selections from Naas and Warwick for you.
Naas
3:35 – Big King a winner on his handicap debut at Navan back in November. The 7-year-old improved again to finish 2nd of 20 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. Nudged up just 4lb for that latest effort and provided the ground isn’t too testing looks capable of finding more improvement for the step up to 2m 3f today.
Top-weight Morosini has been a bit frustrating since winning a 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Cork back in January last year. A promising 4th of 20 here over 2m 4f back in November. His last two starts have been over 3m which I don’t think he stays and he’s got each way claims back in trip today.
Verdict: Big King is a worthy market leader but an each way chance is taken with Morosini here.
1pt each way – Morosini – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Warwick
4:15 – Flashjack – The 11-year-oldmight have reached the veteran stage but he’s twice won around here in the past, goes well on testing ground and returns to Class 3 company for the first time since winning at Haydock in December 2019, off 3lb higher. A thorough stayer, his form figures racing beyond 3m 1f are 111531. Granted his form of late has been poor but the yard is in much better form now and I think he’s far too big a price to ignore.
1pt each way – Flashjack – 20/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John