Hi all,
It’s a marathon not a sprint so while yesterday was disappointing, today is another day. There’s plenty of racing both sides of the Irish Sea but the standout race in terms of prize money is the Grade B Shamrock Handicap Chase at Gowran Park (3:55). My bet of the day though comes from Sandown.
Gowran Park
3:55 – Fifteen have declared for the race which is run over the intermediate trip of 2m 2f and the going is likely to be heavy, so stamina to see out the trip will be key.
Dinny Lacey has already show he’s better chaser than a hurdler. The 7-year-old won a Limerick novice chase (heavy) over Christmas. Out of his depth behind Envoi Allen in Grade 3 at Punchestown on his next start but bounced back to his best when runner-up to Farmix back at the same venue 26-days ago. Get’s the first time cheekpieces for his handicap debut and looks on a decent opening mark.
Minella Till Dawn bounced back to form when winning at Naas over 2m 4f last month. Up 6lb and down in trip. He’s not the most consistent of horses but e won’t be far away if in the right mood.
Kitten Rock is very well handicapped on his best form and Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb. Finished third behind Minella Till Dawn last time and gets a 10lb pull for an 11 ½ length beating. However, it’s five years since the 11-year-old won a race.
Goulane Chosen is another well handicapped horse. The 12-year-old is a previous C&D winner and finished 4th of 9 at Thurles last month but didn’t really show there that he was about to hit winning form.
Kildorrery is talented enough and has plenty of form that would give him a chance here but he’s only 1-18 over fences and tends to be ridden with exaggerated waiting tactics. He’s got the right jockey on board in Denis O’Regan to carry out those tactics but looks likely to find a few to good.
The Chapel Field & Montagne D’argent were separated by a nose here over 2m and the latter gets 2lb here. Both have nice light weights here but need to find a little bit more improvement for today’s longer trip and latter looks the mostly likely to find it.
Arahecan has just had four starts over fences. Won a beginners’ chase at Down Royal on his second start over fences in December. Maybe the race came to quick for him but he was then well beaten Dinny Lacey at Limerick. Bounced back form that poor run and looked set to go close back at Down Royal when falling two out. Could be on a good mark for his handicap chase debut but his jumping will be tested here.
Pont Aven looked a winner in waiting when 4th of 17 at Leopardstown over Christmas and then went onto finish 2nd of 14 behind the Daly Tiger in a better race at Fairyhouse. Pulled up as if something was amiss at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival. If you forgive him that run, he would be favourite here, and has got to be a contender.
Rebel Gold won a 2m beginners’ chase here 43-days ago. It was heavy that day so the going won’t trouble the 8-year-old who finished his race of strongly that day. Today’s extra two furlongs look a big positive and although he’s been raised 8lb for that success and must carry top weight here. He won’t be far away here, if he jumps as well as he did last time.
Verdict: Handicap debutants Dinny Lane & Rebel Gold are high on the shortlist. If you ignore his last run Pont Aven had been shaping like he would pop up in race like this. The Chapel Field & Montagne D’argent have similar chances and the latter has each way claims. Last time out winner Minella Till Dawn has an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with but if on a going day won’t be far away.
1pt win – Rebel Gold – 8/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Pont Aven – 7/1 – Gen
Sandown
2:40 – Ten of the last twelve winners of this Class 3 handicap chase have been in the first two in the betting.
The Flying Sofa is just 1lb higher than when winning at Fakenham last January. Just two starts this season, the last of which came when finishing 4th of 12 in a Kempton “Jumpers’ bumper” 29-days ago. Return to a sound surface is a positive, as his form figures on good, or good to soft are 31322121. Yet to win going right-handed – 0-6 3 places – but set for a good run here.
Frero Banbou won twice over fences on soft ground when trained in France. The 6-year-old has run respectably on his two starts over fences for Venetia Williams with indicating that’s he’s well handicapped. Has had a wind-op since his last run at Haydock 83-days ago and good ground is a bit of an unknown.
2pts win – The Flying Sofa – 5/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John