Hi all,
Warwick fell to the weather yesterday so we are left with the worst Saturday of racing for a long time. ITV aren’t giving up though they are covering four races from Lingfield’s all-weather card and four from Naas as part of an eight race programme. However, both tracks must survive morning inspections to see if racing can go ahead. The milder weather is heading in and fingers are firmly crossed that Exeter and Punchestown are able to race on Sunday.
After yesterday’s lame efforts at Dundalk maybe I should take the day off but if ITV can do it, so can I.
Lingfield
3:10 – Avorisk Et Perils is the suggestion in this 1m 2f handicap. Both the mares career wins have come here, including one over C&D. She can now race off the same mark as for her last C&D win and wasn’t totally disgraced when a close-up 5th of 12 over C&D last month. The mare didn’t get the best of runs inside the final furlong. If she did, she would have finished even closer than she did. A strong pace will suit and she can go close if she gets one.
1pt win – Avorisk Et Perils – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – Real Estate gained a hat trick of wins last winter, including C&D and was only beaten neck into second over C&D last June. He can race off 1lb lower here. Returned from a 196-day break when 5th of 6 here 17-days ago. Trainer is among the winners and the 6-year-old shouldn’t be far away here.
1pt win – Real Estate – 7/1 @ Bet365
Naas
2:15 – The first of two handicaps being covered by ITV. It looks tougher than the second and there’s actually three that I like.
Top-weight Ask Nile is on a long losing run but he often runs well in much better races than this. He was only beaten a neck at Kilbeggan last August and put in an even better performance when third in the Mayo National at Ballinrobe a month later. He returned from a 62-day break with another decent effort when 6th of 17 at Leopardstown over an inadequate 2m 1f on Boxing Day. Given his overall profile he’s more an each-way contender.
Drumacoo returned from 273-day break to win over hurdles at Listowel back in September before running well for a long way and travelling best of all coming to three out, in a better race again over hurdles when 6th of 13 at Navan 57-days ago. The 12-year-old hasn’t run very often over the larger obstacles of late but his handicap mark of 121 looks workable.
The Echo Boy looked a chaser worth following when making all to win a Fairyhouse beginners chase (2m 5f) back in November. Ran poorly here when last of six in December on his last start. Handicap chase debut today off a fair mark although the trainer has gone 23 runners and 60-days since he last saddled a winner.
Verdict: Ask Nile’s profile doesn’t shout winner but the top-weight can surely get into the places. Drumacoo went well for a long way last time over hurdles and looks on a good mark back over fences. The Echo Boy is surely better than he was able to show last time and is interesting on his handicap chase debut. Rather than leave one of them out I’m going in with all three at the prices available.
1pt each way – Ask Nile – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Drumacoo – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Echo Boy – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:25 – Unlike the previous handicap there’s only a couple I really like here and one is Royal Rhythm. The 5-year-old has only had the five starts over hurdles and last time put in a career best on RPR’s when 3rd of 16 at Fairyhouse last month. Drops back to 2m here but that looks a positive, as does the fact that trainer Philip Rothwell had a winner on Monday.
Djasek ran well to finish 2nd of 10 at Fairyhouse last time. Nudged up 2lb for that run but the 5-year-old goes well on testing ground and looks capable of winning a handicap hurdle like this. The yard has had a couple of winners on the all-weather of late which is another positive.
Verdict: Djasek is probably the right favourite and sure to be popular with punters after his last run. However, the suggestion is the lightly raced Royal Rhythm on the drop back in trip.
1pt win – Royal Rhythm – 6/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John