Hi all,
It’s a quiet time of the year on the punting front for me and Saturday is no different.
I’m happy with 6/1 Make Me A Believer in the Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (2:25) at Warwick.
The big race of the day is Warwick’s Classic Chase (3.00). And over the Irish Sea at Fairyhouse it’s the Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (2.15). The latter race has a strong ante post favourite in recent Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner Chatham Street Lad. I have concentrated on three races at Warwick and one at Fairyhouse.
Warwick
The going is soft, heavy in places at Warwick some more rain is being forecast so it could be heavy by the start of racing.
1:15 – Edward Courage Cup Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m
Sky Pirate appreciated the drop back to 2m when beating eight rivals at Cheltenham last month. He’s up 11lb for that success but looks capable of better given he’s unexposed at 2m. The runner-up has since gone onto win at Sandown, off 3lb higher, so the form looks solid. He will be tough to beat.
He faces five rivals, including the improving Amoola Gold who is going the right way. Runner-up last time at Ascot but the first & third have won again so the form looks strong. Dan Skelton looks set to saddle stablemate Destrier. The 8-year-old returns from a 322-day lay off but ran well when a 3 length, 3rd of 6 in the Haldon Gold Cup (soft) in November 2019. Might not want the ground to testing but he’s 5lb lower than on his seasonal reappearance last season and must be respected on his best form.
Previous C&D winner Generous Day has been struggling for form on his three starts this season and is 3lb out of the handicap here.
The biggest threat to Sky Pirate could come from Equus Miller. The 7-year-old made it 2-4 over fences when beating five rivals at Haydock 28-days ago. The ground was heavy that day and if he can build on that performance in a better race he remains on a competitive mark.
Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond recent Cheltenham winner Sky Pirate but he’s not one I would ever want to take a short price on so Equus Miller looks a value alternative.
1pt win – Equus Miller – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:00 – McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 5f
Not the strongest of renewals of the race but thirteen go to post for what remains a competitive race.
Notachance heads the ante post market won a Class 2 handicap chase at Bangor in November. He’s up 7lb but is going the right way and goes well on soft ground. Trainer Alan King has saddled the winner of the race twice in his training and has a good chance of making it three.
Captain Chaos made a bold bid from the front in this race 12 months ago. This track really suits him and he must have a good chance of going one better in what looks a slightly weaker race. Blinkers return for the first time since winning at Doncaster in February.
Storm Control has won his last two starts both at Cheltenham. He’s looked much improved since going 3m+. He’s only 5lb higher than for the last of those wins and trainer Kerry Lee saddled the winner of this in 2016.
Le Breuil was due to run in the abandoned North Yorkshire Grand National on Thursday. The 9-year-old is having his first start since wind op and finishing 3rd of 14 in the Becher Chase at Aintree. He’s dropped down to a winnable mark and this a lesser race than last time. He probably needs to win this if he’s to get into the Grand National.
Achille only ran once last season when runner-up to West Approach at Cheltenham 427-days ago. Finished lame after that race and hasn’t been seen since. The 11-year-old had looked progressive and is on a decent mark. Venetia Williams saddled the winner in 2013 so what’s needed to win the race.
Django Django beat the favourite at Newbury last season but pulled up in the Bangor race. Might have needed the run when staying on past tired rivals to finish 5th of 14 back at Newbury. The 8-year-old isn’t the most consistent and has yet to race beyond 3m 2f but shapes like this sort of trip could really suit. He looks well treated if it does.
Top weight Ballyoptic won a 3m handicap chase at Ascot in February, off 3lb lower and a 5lb conditional has been booked. Found the ground to quick on the Ladbrokes Trophy on his last start but will be more at home on testing ground. Despite not coming into the race in form can’t be dismissed.
Walk In The Mill fell at the sixth in his bid for a third successive Becher Chase at Aintree last month. The first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces which makes him an interesting contender if his confidence has been dented. Yard in great form and must be respected.
2pts win – Notachance – 9/2 @ Coral
1pt each way – Ballyoptic – 20/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Verdict: The favourite is a boring selection but I think he’s got a solid chance. Plenty have each way claims including top weight Ballyoptic who can get into the money if bouncing back to his best and Le Breuil who’s dropped down to a good mark.
3:35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) – 3m 1f
The 2019 Welsh Grand National Winner Potters Cross loves the mud and is just 3lb higher than when winning over hurdles at Chepstow last December. Well handicapped on his best chase form and can go well with the ground very much in his favour.
Ante postfavourite Come On Teddy made it 2-3 since racing 2m 7f+ when winning at Cheltenham last month. The 7-year-old is 7lb higher here but is improving and looks the right market leader.
Kepagge looked progressive when winning two heavy ground novice hurdles last season. Wasn’t seen at his best when 4th of 9 in a slowly run race on his handicap debut/seasonal return at Cheltenham. 63-days ago. Step up to 3m 1f should suit the 7-year-old and if he improves for it he should be bang there.
Flemcara won at Doncaster (heavy) 18-days ago. He’s now 5lb higher but should run well if in the same form as last time.
Imperial Alcazar looked a smart staying prospect when winning a Leicester novice hurdle (heavy) last January. The 7-year-old was to keen but ran well for a long way on his handicap hurdle debut at Haydock 56-days ago. Stamina to prove at 3m 1f on testing ground but has a chance at the weights if he stays.
Tobefair is back down to his last winning mark and should run his race but he’s now an 11-year-old and remains vulnerable to any better handicapped horses in the field.
Verdict: Come On Teddy is unexposed over 3m and has solid claims. No stamina concerns for Potters Cross who will relish heavy ground. Kepagge has stamina to prove but will love the ground and can win this. Imperial Alcazar is another with stamina concerns but is a decent prospect who should be better for his Haydock reappearance.
1pt win – Kepagge – 8/1 @ Bet365
Fairyhouse
2:15 – Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 1f
Sometimes it’s worth going with the obvious contender. Despite dropping back 3 ½ f in distance it’s hard to look past the claims of Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner Chatham Street Lad here. The 9-year-old so impressive last time has only been raised 10lb for that Cheltenham but Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb and he remains on a winnable mark.
The favourite faces fifteen rivals though, plenty of them are interesting with half of the field being out of the weights. It’s just a shame the race isn’t on ITV.
Joseph O’Brien has a couple of contenders in Entoucas & Front View. The former was 2nd of 10 here over 2m last month. Just had the three starts of fences and can win races off his present mark. Front View won a a beginners’ chase at the same meeting as his stablemate. Handicap chase debut here and can land a decent pot over fences.
Fan De Blues, trained by Willie Mullins, remains a maiden after five starts over fences but has shown enough to think he can make his mark in the sphere. Looks interesting in the first-time hood and looks on a competitive mark. Stablemate Pont Aven has more experience over the larger obstacles and looked a real eyecatcher when 4th of 17 over today’s distance at Leopardstown over Christmas. Looks on a workable mark although might need a bit further to take advantage of it, 2lb out of the handicap but has claims.
Kildorrery doesn’t find winning easy but has put in plenty of good performances in this type of race. The 8-year-old finished 4th in this race 12 months ago and was a good third in a competitive handicap here last time. Tends to be held up well of the pace in his races which will always means his jockey has to time his challenge perfectly. Despite being 4lb out of the weights he could get into the places.
Bel Ami De Sivola finished one place ahead of Kildorrery last time. A previous C&D winner that was his first start under rules since switching to Gordon Elliott. The 10-year-old has each way claims again, despite being 4lb out of the handicap.
Verdict: Despite his rise in the weights Chatham Street Lad is the one to beat. The Mullins pair Fan De Blues & Pont Aven shouldn’t be far away. Both Entoucas & Front View have each way claims as does last year’s fourth Kildorrery.
1pt each way – Pont Aven – 12/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Kildorrery – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John