Hi all,
Smooth Stepper plugged on to take 5th in the Becher Chase yesterday at 25/1 but we had to wait until the final race at Sandown when Benson stayed on strongly after the last to catch Galice Macalo in the final 75yds. Still a profitable day and hopefully we can end the weekend on a high.
Sadly, we lost Sunday’s Huntingdon meeting and with it the Peterborough Chase due to parts of the racecourse being flooded after the nearby river burst in banks. Let’s hope the race can be rescheduled as it was a couple of seasons back when the same thing happened.
Still we have a couple of good races to look forward to on Sunday with the Borders National (3:20) at Kelso and of course the little matter of the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase (1:40) at Punchestown. The race has attracted arguably it’s strongest field in years and it’s no exaggeration to say there’s unlikely to be a better race than this before the Cheltenham Festival.
Punchestown
1:40 – John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase – 2m 4 ½ f
Last season’s Ryanair Chase winner Min brings the best form to the table and bids for a hat trick in the race but this is much stronger than the two he won first time up. Still he’s the one to beat.
Min’s stablemate Allaho also makes his seasonal reappearance here. The 6-year-old ended last season with a 3rd of 10 behind Champ in the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. Drop back in distance but there is a good chance it will suit and he’s probably got more improvement in him given he’s only had three starts over fences.
Besides those two trainer Willie Mullins also saddles Melon & Tornado Flyer. The former finished runner-up to Samcro (beaten a nose) in the Marsh Novices’ Chase. That was a career best effort from the 8-year-old but he will probably need another to win this. Tornado Flyer has the benefit of race fitness compared to his three stablemates but this looks a tough ask for the 7-year-old on ratings.
Gordon Elliott saddles Battleofdoyen & Samcro. Both have a race under the belt having finished first & third in a Grade 2 at Down Royal 36-days ago. Battleoverdoyen jumped solidly and put in a career best effort in winning last time. He was well behind by Allaho in the RSA in 4th but this is more his distance. First run on heavy for the 7-year-old but he should handle it.
Interestingly Jack Kennedy keeps faith with Samcro who has six lengths to find with his stablemate. In Samcro’s defence he would have finished closer at Down Royal but for a mistake three out.
Chris’s Dream looked to be travelling like the most likely winner coming to the last but just lost out to the race fit The Storyteller in the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Down Royal. A strong traveller, the drop back to an extended 2m 4f could suit.
Verdict: Min is the one to beat but there are some serious rivals in Chris’s Dream, Allaho and the Elliott pair. At the prices I like Battleoverdoyen & Samcro with a preference for the former who looked much improved when winning last time. Two from two at Punchestown he will do for me if he handles the heavy ground.
1pt win – Battleoverdoyen – 6/1 @ Bet365
Kelso
3:20 – Persimmon Homes Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 4m ½ f
It’s not the John Durkan but still a competitive 13 runner staying handicap chase.
Sandy Thomson like to plot one out for this race and saddles likely favourite in Duc De Grissay. A course winner back in March on his just his second start over fences. He made a solid return to action when 4th of 12 in the Durham National showing he stays 4m in the process. Big player but may prefer softer ground.
Bigirononhiship won both his starts last season including this race last year. Not disgraced when runner-up at Ayr first time up last month. This will have been the target and although he’s 10lb higher this time around he’s got a great chance of back to back wins in the race.
Just Your Type was runner-up in last years race and the slightly better ground could see him finish closer to Bigirononhiship this time.
Iwilldoit won here last December. That was the 7-year-old only start over fences so he lacks experience compared to his rivals but it also means he’s open to more progress over the larger obstacles. I think a mark of 133 will be defied by the 7-year-old some time this season but whether it’s here over 4m on his first start since 343-days is open to doubt.
Bob Mahler got up in the final strides to win the Edinburgh National in February, off 5lb lower, and finished 3rd of 23 in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Has pulled up on both starts this season but today’s ground will suit him better and trainer had a welcome winner at Sandown on Friday.
Looking Well looked like the most likely winner of this race when falling out three out two years ago. A dual course winner he’s just 3lb higher than his last winning mark. Ran well on his first start since March 2019 when 4th over hurdles here last month. The cheekpieces are back on for a return to fences and the 11-year-old is capable of big run on good to soft ground.
Red Giant followed up his win in the Durham National with a good second at Catterick. Not out of it here but may prefer quicker ground.
Classic Example made all to win at Southwell on his fourth start over fences. Up 10lb but is going the right way.
One For Us is another who has pulled up on his last two starts. He won the Southern National last November but has looked out of sorts since. Two from three when racing 3m 4f+ and gets the first-time blinkers which need to make a big difference. If they do, he’s got have a chance off his last winning mark.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect. Duc De Grissay looks an ideal type for the race and should be kept on side. Last year’s winner Bigirononhiship can’t be ruled out. Iwilldoit is very interesting and looks on a winnable mark but lacks a bit of experience. Looking Well should have won this two years ago and provided the ground isn’t to soft should go close.
1pt win – Duc De Grissay – 9/2 – Gen
1pt win – Looking Well – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John