Hi all,
Yesterday’s two selections were total hounds and I can’t even blame the fiasco that the chases became due to low sun at Taunton.
Back to top-class action today and the ITV cameras are covering four races from Newbury’s Ladbrokes Winter Carnival. The going is being described as good, good to soft in places.
The feature race is the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (3:00). It’s no exaggeration to say this is like a mini Stayers Hurdle.
All the best British based staying hurdlers are in the lineup including established stayers Paisley Park, Lisnagar Oscar and the upcoming McFabulous and Thyme Hill. Add In recent impressive Cheltenham handicap hurdle winner Honest Vic and you have the makings of a cracker. Besides the feature race there’s a competitive 2m 4f Class 2 handicap chase (2:25) which has attracted a decent sized field of 11 declared runners.
Newbury
2:25 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase – 2m 4f
Oldgrangewood won this race in 2017 and last year. The 9-year-old made a solid return to action when 4th of 12 in the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree. He races off a career high mark but won’t be far away.
Clondaw Castle finished runner-up in the Old Roan. Two wins on good or quicker so underfoot conditions shouldn’t hold any terrors for the 8-year-old. Has improved for the step up to 2m 4f but has been nudged up 2lb so needs to find a bit more improvement here.
Cepage has got top-weight to carry but has a touch of class. A winner at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, off 1lb lower. He ran well for a long way when 7th of 24 in the 3m 1f Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival. Only fading after the last when his stamina seemed to run out. First run since March but his form figures when returning from a 180+day break are 1222.
Defi Sacre was an improving handicap chaser last season winning his last three including two here both over 2m. The 7-year-old caught the eye when finishing runner-up on his seasonal return at Aintree 20-days ago. Looks capable of more progress this winter but stamina for 2m 4f is an unknown. as is the going.
San Benedeto won a C&D handicap chase back in March and finished fourth in this 12 months ago. Ran poorly in two starts over the summer and needs the 140-day absence too have freshened him up. Goes very well on a sound surface though and is back down to his last winning mark so can’t be totally dismissed.
1pt win – Cepege – 13/2 @ Bet365
1pt win- Defi Sacre – 10/1 @ Bet365
3:00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m
All eyes on Paisley Park last year’s winner hasn’t been seen since disappointing in the Stayer Hurdle at the Festival. If he’s back to his best he will be tough to beat. It looks a stronger renewal that 12 months ago so he will have to be at his best though.
McFabulous has improved with each of his five starts since going hurdling and made an eye-catching return to action to win the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow last month. Not surprisingly after the race there were comparison’s with Big Bucks who won this race three times. First run at 3m but he shouldn’t lack for stamina.
Another potential improver this season is Thyme Hill. The 6-year-old landed the Grade 2 Challow Novices’ Hurdle here last December. And then finished 4th of 19 in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. He was only beaten 1 ½ lengths at the finish and indeed could be considered a little unfortunate not to prevail as he got squeezed for room at the last. First run for 259-days but he goes well after a lay off.
Lisnagar Oscar caused a 50/1 shock when winning last season’s Stayers Hurdle. He raced like the run when only 4th of 8 at Wetherby last month. A bit to prove in what looks a high-class renewal of the race. Good ground not really an issue and we shall find out today if his Cheltenham success was a fluke or not.
Honest Vic was an impressive winner of competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month. That was his first start over 3m and he certainly improved for the step up in trip. The drying ground has come at the right time for the 7-year-old. This is a big step up in class but gets 6lb from both Paisley Park & Lisnagar Oscar. On Racing Post Rating’s (RPR’s) he’s got a better chance than his odds imply and If he’s going to be contender for the Stayers Hurdle, he’s got to run well here. The 20/1 generally available looks generous to me and I’m hopeful he can get into the places.
1pt win – Paisley Park – 5/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Honest Vic – 12/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:35 – Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m
Hill Sixteen romped home in an 8-runner handicap chase at Ffos Las 9-days ago (heavy). Looks well very handicapped on that run but the going will be completely different today and he looks worth taking on.
Dell’ Arca might be an 11-year-old but he’s started the season in tremendous form winning handicap hurdles at Aintree and over C&D 22-days ago. Goes well on good ground and whilst he’s up 6lb for his last success another win can’t be ruled out. His record at Newbury is a fantastic 3 wins from 7 runs + 16.50 6 placed with form figures 2251131.
Neville’s Cross improved for going handicapping winning on his handicap debut at Uttoxeter and then following up at Hereford off 9lb higher. Never really got competitive from the rear when 6th of 17 behind Honest Vic at Cheltenham last month. Trainer in better form than he was then and the 5-year-old does tick the all-important going & distance boxes.
1pt win – Dell’ Arca – 7/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Neville’s Cross – 13/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John