Hi all,
Apart from Militarian plugging on into a place in the Sodexo Gold Cup and Sebastopol being a non-runner in the handicap hurdle it was a disappointing day on the punting front. The good news is there are a couple of good races to get stuck into today and an opportunity to end the weekend in profit.
Cork
3:20 – Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f
Nineteen are set to go to post for this year’s race. Not only a big field of handicap chasers with the last two winners in the race but also a bit of quality in the shape of couple of young and potentially improving staying chasers.
The last two winners of the race are also run in The Gatechecker and Out Sam. The former won this last year and although he’s 6lb higher 12 months remains on a competitive mark. Had a couple of spins over hurdles as a prep and is the choice of Mark Walsh. Out Sam lost his way over regulation fences after winning the race in 2018 but he seemed to be rejuvenated in the Cross-Country sphere last season, finishing third twice at Cheltenham. The 11-year-old looked to be running a decent race on his return to action, when falling four out at Kilbeggan 20-days ago. Now 6lb lower than his last winning mark he’s got to be respected given he hails form the Gordon Elliott yard.
Tokyo Getaway is at the opposite end of the experience spectrum. The mare has just had the three starts over fences. A winner of a Clonmel beginners’ chase on heavy on her second start over the larger obstacles back in February. The mare ran well to finish third over hurdles 3 three weeks ago and should be spot on fitness wise for this. Suited to the mud if she stays today’s marathon trip, she looks on a good mark.
Deadheat has done well for present connections since arriving from France with his form figures being 3121. A solid jumper of a fence, he stays and will like the ground. Up 10lb for a recent Punchestown success but he’s another open to more improvement and the 7-year-old must be high on the shortlist.
Verdict: Deadheat steps up in class here but is open to more improvement, as is Tokyo Getaway. Both Out Sam & The Gatechecker come into the reckoning with a slight preference for the Gordon Elliott trained 11-year-old.
1pt win – Deadheat – 5/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Out Sam – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Carlisle
2:40 – Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase – (Listed Race) – 2m 4f
A small but select field of six for this usually informative race for second season chasers. You can make a case for five of the six runners.
Imperial Aura heads the market. He ended last season with a win in the novices’ handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival and looks set for a good season after just four starts over fences.
Brewin’upastorm won his first two starts over fences here and at Taunton last season before unseating his rider four out in the Arkle Novices’ Chase in March. First try over 2m 4f over the larger obstacles but he seemed to stay the distance over hurdles.
Black Op is having his first run since finishing runner-up in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton over Christmas. He stays 3m and may lack the speed of some of his rivals here.
Double Windsor won his first two starts over fences last season, including a C&D novice chase 12 months ago. Well beaten on his last two starts but he’s had a wind-op since, goes well on soft ground and must be a contender.
Sam Brown returned from a 750-day absence to win at Lingfield and a Grade 2 novices chase at Haydock last season. Ran as if something was amiss when pulling up in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot in February. The conditions of the race mean he must give Imperial Aura 2lb and Brewin’upastorm 6lb. On the plus side he goes well fresh and trainer Anthony Honeyball saddled an Ascot treble yesterday.
Verdict: At the prices I’m happy to take a chance with Sam Brown but Brewin’upastorm is the one I fear most of the front two.
1pt win – Sam Brown – 13/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John