Hi all,
A pleasing day yesterday with the first & third in the 2m 5f handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. Need to maintain that form today. On what is another good of racing to suit both jumps and flat fans.
It’s the final Group 1 of the British Flat season with the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster alongside a second day at Cheltenham.
ITV are televising races from Cheltenham, Doncaster, and Newbury on a busy afternoon. I have selections from all three meetings. Let’s begin at Cheltenham and two competitive handicaps.
Cheltenham
3:15 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) – 3m
Tobefair won this race 12 months ago (heavy) on his seasonal return. The 10-year-old is 3lb higher than last year but Jack Tudor takes off a handy 5lb. He goes well fresh and although last years win came on heavy. His record on good or quicker is 6 wins from 9 runs so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be a problem for the veteran.
Trainer Harry Whittington had a big race winner yesterday with Rouge Vif and he has a lively contender in Sir Robbie who won a Uttoxeter handicap hurdle 20-days ago. All the 6-year-old’s career wins have come at Uttoxeter though. First run at Cheltenham but if he handles the track, he can go well off 6lb higher than last time.
A sound surface really suits Neville’s Cross who made it 2 wins from 2 runs when winning at Haydock 11-days ago. Up 12lb for that success but the 5-year-old is progressive and unexposed, just the five starts over hurdles, and can go close again on a sound surface.
Verdict: I really should leave these Pertemps Qualifiers alone but I do like three of the runners. Hard to split the three in truth. On good ground Neville’s Cross should be there. Tobefair goes well fresh and should be ready to roll today. Sir Robbie is going the right way and looks a decent each way price if he can replicate his Uttoxeter form at this venue.
1pt win – Tobefair – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Coral
1pt win – Neville’s Cross – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1f
For me the most interesting race on today’s Cheltenham card.
Cogry is a bit of a standing dish around here. He won the race in 2017. Finished runner-up in 2018 and third 12 months ago. All those performances came on his seasonal reappearance so he shouldn’t lack for race fitness in Saturday.
Frodon is another Cheltenham specialist with 5 wins from 12 runs +27.25. He’s goes well fresh and handles most types of ground. Won’t be easy to defy top-weight but the 8-year-olds got a touch of class and a mark of 164 is workable, if ready to roll.
Manofthemountain made it 4 wins from 5 starts over fences when making a winning seasonal return to action at Bangor last month. A progressive handicap chaser. He seems ground versatile and although he’s 7lb higher looks the right favourite.
Cobra De Mai won a valuable handicap chase over 3m 2f here back in April 2019, off 2lb higher, and wasn’t disgraced when 6th of 23 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at this years Festival. Best three RPR’s have come on good ground so if the ground stays on the good side it will be in the 8-year-old’s favour.
Cloth Cap would be an interesting runner. The 8-year-old finished third in the 2019 Scottish Grand National. He didn’t win any of his four starts last season but put in a couple of good placed efforts at Ascot and Doncaster. Handles soft ground but his three career wins have come on good or good to soft. Looks on a winnable mark for his seasonal return.
Verdict: I wish I gone in for the good ground loving Cobra De Mai earlier in the week when he was double his present odds. Frodon has a touch of class and loves it here. Will he need the run though? That leaves Cloth Cup and early ante post favourite Manofthemountain as my two picks at present prices.
1pt win – Cloth Cap – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Manofthemountain – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Doncaster
2:55 – Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Eleven are set to go to post for this year’s renewal. Aidan O’Brien had 7 of the 18 declared at the five-day stage. He runs only one in Wembley. The ante post favourite for the race after his 2nd of 14 in the Dewhurst. The colt goes on soft ground and can improve for the step up to a mile. He’s the one they all must beat on form.
One Ruler, trained by Charlie Appleby, won a Group 3 at Newmarket over mile two weeks ago. He’s going the right way and looks set for a big run.
Megallan was three places and 3 ½ lengths behind One Ruler at Newmarket. He didn’t get the best of passages that day and is entitled to get closer to that one today. Has each way claims.
Andrew Balding saddled Kameko to win this last year and Elm Park in 2014. He saddles the twice raced maiden King Vega. The colt should improve for the step up to a mile. First run on soft but he should be fine in the ground.
Mac Swiney is rare Doncaster runner for Irish trainer Jim Bolger. The colt was well down the field in the National Stakes (Wembley was runner-up) on his last start. The ground was good that day at the Curragh. Prior to that run the son of New Approach had won a Group 2 at the Curragh on soft ground. The step up to a mile should bring out more improvement and he’s another with place claims.
Roger Varian won this with Kingston Hill in 2013 and he saddles Baradar who made it 2 wins from 3 runs when winning at York (soft) 14-days ago. Connections have supplemented the colt for the race which shows he’s clearly highly regarded. Closely matched with Magallan on their running at Newbury last month. He’s 2 wins from 2 runs on soft ground and can go well.
Verdict: The obvious pick is Wembley. The others must improve to beat the favourite but there are few who can do so. The likely soft ground brings both Mac Swiney and Baradar into the mix. I have gone with the former each way at the 18/1 available with Bet365.
0.5pts each way – Mac Swiney – 18/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
Newbury
3:35 – Molson Coors Beverage Company Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) -7f
Existent seemed to relish the heavy ground when winning a Newmarket maiden 21-days ago. That was the son of Kingman’s first start since disappointing run in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Needs to improve further to win this but given this is just the colts fourth career start it’s a real possibility that he can.
1pt win – Existent – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John