Hi all,
It’s Champions Day at Ascot and after yesterday’s miserable effort, it can only get better can’t it? Apart from the six races at Ascot there’s the 5f Catterick ‘Dash’ and a 1m 4f Premier Handicap at Leopardstown.
The Champions Day action gets underway at 1:20 and I have had an in-depth look at the six Ascot races.
Ascot
1:20 – British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m
Looking at the betting. The 5/4 available about Stradivarius would be a bit of value for the 2018 winner, runner-up (beaten a nose) 12 months ago and third in 2017. However, he comes into the race after an abortive attempt at the Arc where he finished seventh. Trainer John Gosden thinks he’s fine although it’s only 13 days since Longchamp. Will get a strong pace to chase and should win if the Arc hasn’t taken the edge off him.
The two renewals he didn’t win were won by an Aidan O’Brien trained horse. He has three entered in this year’s race: Sovereign, Broome who hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in the Coronation Cup and Dawn Patrol. The latter named is the most interesting One bare rating he’s got plenty to find with Stradivarius. However, he has a 3-year-old and last time out he ran out a cosy winner of a 1m 6f Group 3 at the Curragh 20-days ago. The step up to 2m can bring out even more improvement in the ground versatile colt and he’s got each way claims.
Of the rest Spanish Mission made it 2-2 since switching to Andrew Balding when winning a weak Doncaster Cup (2m 2f) last time. He’s got a decent change of gear for a stayer and can’t be totally dismissed if the race got tactical. Maybe wants better ground than he will get here though.
Likewise, recent Irish St Leger winner Search For A Song into the mix. The fitting of the hood has really helped the 4-year-old and trainer Dermot Weld saddled the 2012 & 2014 winners of the race. This will be the softest ground she’s run on. If she handles it, she will be in the mix.
Trueshan takes a big step up in class here but goes well on rain softened ground and is progressive. Should be suited by the step up to 2m and could get into the places.
Verdict: I’m going to take on Stradivarius with something each way. Trueshan gets his ground and is open to improvement for the step up to 2m. However, I am going to take a chance with the improving 3-year-old Dawn Patrol.
1pt each way – Dawn Patrol – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)
1:55 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Dream Of Dreams’s form figures since a gelding operation are 211 and the ante post favourite will be tough to beat after last month’s win in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock.
Oxted won the Group 1 July Cup on his last start and has had a wind-op since Newmarket. First run on soft since his juvenile debut. Must prove himself on rain softened ground but Sire Mayson get horses that go well on soft and his dam also won on soft so he could still prove to be effective on it.
Glen Shiel put in a career best when finishing runner-up to Dream of Dreams in the Sprint Cup. As stiff 6f suits and he could give Hollie Doyle a first Group 1 success. Each way contender for sure on his Haydock run.
At a big price keep an eye on Irish raider Sonaiyla. A winner over 7f this season she put in a career best when third to Glass Slippers in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh last month. Doing her best work at the finish that day. She should be suited to the return to 6f and a bit of ease in the ground.
Verdict: Dream Of Dreams looks the most likely winner. Glen Shiel runner-up at Haydock is suited by a stiff 6f and can get into the money if reproducing his Haydock run. At bigger odds I’m happy to have a dart at Sonaiyla back at 6f.
1pt each way – Sonaiyla – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:30 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f
The likely favourite is recent Group 1 Prix de Royallieu winner Wonderful Tonight. That race was only 13 days ago though and all three of her wins have come on heavy ground. The drop back to 1m 4f shouldn’t inconvenience the improving 3-year-old but will this race come too quick for her after Longchamp.
Dame Malliot goes well on soft ground as she showed when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket in July. Has since finished third in Group 1’s at Cologne and in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last month. Likely to face competition for the lead here.
Antonia De Vega has won her last two over 1m 4f in lesser company but has previous form at Group 1 level and deserves another chance at this level. Soft ground not an issue and the forecast strong pace will be in her favour
Even So improved to win the Irish Oaks back in July. She returned from a short break to finish 6th of 10 in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille. On the bare form that run looks a shade disappointing but the slow gallop wouldn’t have suited the daughter of Camelot. Granted a better overall gallop she won’t be far away. Her Irish Oaks win came on good but she won twice on soft in the past.
Verdict: An opening looking race as the betting suggests. If this race doesn’t come to quick the improving Wonderful Tonight can win this. Irish Oaks winner Even So will be suited by the forecast strong pace and is better than she was able to show last time in the Prix Vermeille. The testing ground will also suit Antonia De Vega.
3:05 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
The defection of Kameko means Palace Pier is a best priced 4/6. I said after Palace Pier won Newcastle handicap on his seasonal reappearance that he could well end up the best 3-year-old colt. His two Group 1 successes at Royal Ascot and in the Jacques le Marois (heavy) have only firmed up that opinion and I think he will land a third successive Group 1 on Saturday. We could see a special performance from the colt today.
The others look like they are fighting it out for the places.
French raider The Revenant finished runner-up in the race 12 months ago. The 5-year-old goes very well on testing ground and looks to have been trained for the race. Made a winning belated seasonal reappearance when winning the Group 2 Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp 14-days ago. Should make the places but Palace Pier will be the classiest horse he has faced.
Nazeef won the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket two weeks ago. That win came on heavy so no issues with the ground for the filly and she’s won over C&D at the Royal Meeting. A perfect six from six over mile and is another with place claims.
Roseman a winner of a Newmarket Listed race on heavy last November. Made a promising seasonal reappearance when 4th in the Queen Anne Stakes over C&D at Royal Ascot. However, the 4-year-old didn’t build on that when only 7th of 9 behind Persian King in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Chantilly. First run for 90-day but he’s won of a longer layoff at Newmarket and could get into the money.
0.5pts each way – Roseman – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Verdict: I think Palace Pier will win this comfortably and the rest are fighting out for the places, Last year’s runner-up The Revenant will have his supporters on ground that suits. As will the filly Nazeef. At bigger odds don’t dismiss the claims of Roseman who will love the ground.
3:40 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Last year’s winner Magical is a best priced 7/4. The mare missed the Arc and last time out outpointed Ghaiyyath, with Sottsass back in fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes. A race she had won 12 months earlier. She will be tough to beat if at her best.
Mishriff has won all three starts this season, including the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) and last time out beat three rivals in a Group 2 at Deauville 63-days ago. The colt needs to have improved again but it’s possible given he’s only had seven career starts. How good is his French form? We shall find out later this afternoon.
Addeybb just found Magical too strong in this race last year. The fitting of the cheekpieces last year have been the making of the 6-year-old and his form figures are 12121121 since the headgear was applied. Returned from a short break to win a Listed race at Ayr last month under a 7lb penalty. Needs good to soft or worse and won’t be far away again.
Lord North showed a potent turn of foot when winning the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, with Addeybb 3 ¾ length back in second. Wasn’t seen to best effect in the International Stakes at York when finishing third, one place behind Magical. Better expected back at Ascot where his form figures are 221. No problem with testing ground either as his form figures on good to soft or worse are 1211.
Pyledriver was underestimated in the betting when winning King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal Meeting and when successful in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. Possibly didn’t stay when a close-up third in the St Leger last month. Drops back to 1m 2f here which asks another question of the 3-year-old but as she showed at York, he’s a good turn of foot and can’t totally be dismissed.
Besides Magical Aidan O’Brien could saddle Epsom Derby winner Serpentine & Japan. The latter has been disappointing on his four starts this season. However, a return to the level of form that so him win last year’s International Stakes at York and finish fourth in the Arc would see him in the mix. First time this season that he gets ground worse than good and he won heavy ground at Listowel as juvenile.
Verdict: Arguably the race of Champions Day. Magical has a great chance of back to back wins in the race. Mishriff is open to more improvement. At bigger prices I can see Japan bouncing back to form provided they go a decent gallop. Lord North has arguably the best turn of foot in the race at the distance and he will be suited by the return to Ascot.
1pt win – Lord North – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – Balmoral Handicap – 1m
A maximum field of 20 for this normally competitive handicap on the straight course.
I fancied King Ottoker for the Challenge Cup here at the last meeting but that was abandoned. Looked unlucky in the run when 5th of 12 at Doncaster on his last start. That run came on ground that would have been plenty quick enough for the 4-year-old, both his wins have come on soft. Just his second start in handicap company and will be suited by a strongly run race. Drawn near side in 22 though which may not be where he wants to be.
Raaeq is lightly raced, progressive and could still be a good deal better than his current mark. Showed he had no issues with soft ground when winning here over 7f last month. Has 6lb penalty for that win which shouldn’t be an issue. Proven over a mile already so a return to the distance won’t be a problem. Drawn low in stall 5.
Tempus looked progressive when winning at Newbury and over C&D. Was then sent off the 9/2 favourite for the Cambridgeshire before finishing 6th of 27. Now 2lb higher but back at Ascot and the return to a mile should be in the 3-year-old’s favour.
Keats won a Listed race at Cork 18-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success and a big field handicap and testing ground ask further questions of the 3-year-old. Drawn near side in stall 21.
Ropey Guest finally won a race at the 13th attempt when odds on favourite at Chelmsford. The 3-year-old has been model of consistency during his career without winning until last time. Has form on heavy and here, was sixth in last year’s Coventry Stakes and was 4th of 12 in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on his seasonal reappearance and it looks his trainer has aimed him at this race.
Njord hasn’t had much luck in these big handicaps in Ireland this season. He’s 2lb lower than when 5th of 20 in the Irish Cambridgeshire, goes well on testing ground and should go well.
River Nymph has won his last two, here and last time at Newbury. Both wins came over 7f but he’s finished his races off strongly enough to think he will stay a mile. Drawn middle to high in stall 14. Progressive but 11lb higher than when winning at Newbury.
David O’Meara has saddled two of the last three winners of the race. He saddles Hortzadar & Orbaan. Of the pair I like the claims of the latter. A winner over a mile at York back in July (good to soft). He was only 4th behind Tempus on his last start but the race wasn’t run to suit him and big field and more strongly run race will suit. Drawn high in 20 and has a decent each way chance.
Prince Eiji represents the 2018 winning trainer Roger Varian. The 4-year-old ran well for a long way in the 1m 2f Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. Stamina seemed to run out that day. A strongly run mile could suit. A tough ask off 9-10 but at least he’s effective on soft ground.
Verdict: Raaeq could be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap has to be high on the shortlist. The likes of Orbaan, Prince Eiji and Ropey Guest all have each way claims. The draw has slightly put me off King Ottoker. I hope I don’t come to regret leaving him out of my selections for the race.
1pt win – Raaeq – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Orbaan – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (5 places 1/5 odds)
A fantastic afternoon of racing which you can see on ITV. There may be a selection or two from Catterick & Leopardstown. If there are, they will be with you by 9am on Saturday morning.
Cheers
John