Hi all,
Raaeq bolted home at Ascot and showed soft ground no terrors for the improving 3-year-old. More importantly my sole selection Rochester House bounced back to form, as I hoped, when winning the 2m handicap card on the same card.
Well its Arc Weekend with high class racing at Longchamp over the next two days. There’s also some competitive racing at Newmarket with the feature race of a seven-race card being the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. Ascot has a six-race card with highlight race being the competitive Tote sponsored Challenge Cup a Heritage Handicap over 7f. Redcar has its richest days racing of the season with feature race being the 2-year-old Trophy with £56,710 on offer to the winner.
The going is soft at all three tracks and with more rain forecast it could even go heavy at one or two of them. ITV have a bumper eight race card to enjoy and are covering races from all three meetings. The channel will also be broadcasting four races from Longchamp on Sunday, including the Arc.
Onto today’s action and there’s plenty to get through. I shall begin the Saturday preview at Ascot where I have had a look at all four cases being covered on terrestrial tv.
Ascot
1:55 – tote.co.uk Rous Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Dakota Gold won this race 12 months ago and bids to give trainer Michael Dods a hat trick of wins. The 6-year-old is 4 winners from 6 starts on soft ground and has a good chance of back to back wins.
Maid In India beat Dakota Gold at Newbury last September. That win came on was on good to firm but she’s also won on heavy/soft so is ground versatile. Was a close-up 4th in a Group 1 at the Curragh, behind Glass Slippers, last time and can go close.
Aljady made it 2-2 on soft when easily winning at Sandown two starts back and has since gone onto win at Beverley. That success made it 2-2 over 5f for the improving 5-year-old who may not have reached his class ceiling just yet. The cheekpieces he wore at Beverley are discarded today.
Last Empire was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Dakota Gold in the ‘Beverley Bullet’ but she didn’t have the best of starts and did well to finish as close as she did from the rear. Has since finished 2nd of 16 in fillies Listed race at Ayr 15-days ago. Could be capable of a bit more improvement and goes well on soft ground.
Verdict: I wouldn’t put you off Dakota Gold in his bid for another win in the race. At the prices I’m going each way Last Empire.
1pt each way – Last Empire – 11/1- Gen (Betfair Sportsbook are paying 4 places)
2:30 – tote.co.uk Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
Logician last years St Leger winner easily beat one rival back at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance last month. He’s top of the Official Ratings and is the one to beat but really soft ground would be an unknown.
Morando won this 12 months ago and loves the mud. No doubt he will give his running but if Logician handles the ground, he should have to much class for 7-year-old.
Highland Chief a winnerof a handicap here at the Royal Meeting, over 1m2f, could give the hot favourite most to do. He’s finished runner-up to Mogul in a Group 3 at Goodwood and occupied the same position behind Pyledriver in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. Needs to improve to beat Logician but he’s 2-2 on soft so the going won’t inconvenience the 3-year-old.
3:05 – tote.co.uk Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Seventeen have been declared to go to post for what’s a tight looking handicap.
Last year’s winner Kynren has been backed into favouritism for back to back to wins in the race. He’s 4lb higher this time around but ran a screamer to finish 5th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup on his return from a short break. He won 12 months ago on soft so connections will be delighted that the rain arrived.
Raising Sand is sure to be there or thereabouts if the rain arrives before post time. The 8-year-old’s best five RPR’s have come on Ascot’s straight course with the best one coming over C&D, off 4lb lower.
King Ottokar’s connections will also be doing a rain dance over the next few days. The 4-year-old was an eyecatcher at Doncaster three weeks ago and was in process of running a big race when denied a run at the crucial time. He might be better over a mile but looks on a winnable mark.
River Nymph is a steadily progressive 3-year-old. He’s won his last two starts, the first over C&D and the second at Newbury (soft) last month. He’s 11lb higher now but further improvement can’t be ruled out.
David O’Meara runners in these big field handicaps always need respecting. He could saddle Shelir & Orbaan. The former won at Thirsk two starts back before finishing third at Ayr last time. Not disgraced when 8th of 19 in the International Handicap over C&D in July, off 2lb lower. Orbaan a 1m winner at York, off 3lb lower, back in July. Not so good since but did well to finish 4th of 8 in steadily run race over mile here last time. A strongly run 7f on easy ground could really suit his running style.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect. Orbaan likes ease in the ground although this will be the softest ground he’s raced on. King Ottokar was an eyecatcher at Doncaster last time and the soft ground makes him interesting dropping back to a mile for trainer who does well with his runners on Ascot’s straight track.
1pt win – King Ottokar – 7/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Orbaan – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:40 – John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Cape Byron won this race 12 months ago, is 4-8 at Ascot and 4-5 with soft in the going description. First run since flopping over C&D in the Group 1 Champion Sprint 12 months ago on heavy. Well being must be taken on trust but has won of a lay off in the past.
The Tin Man isn’t as good as he used to be but wasn’t disgraced when 6th of 13 in the Beffair Sprint Cup last time. Has won on heavy in the past and is capable of a big run over a C&D that he’s won three times over.
Brando is another former Group 1 winner who isn’t the force he used to be but will handle the conditions and can’t be totally dismissed down in class.
Snazzy Jazzy is 2-4on soft/heavy. He’s got a few pounds to find with principals but the going is in his favour and the first time cheekpieces are applied. If the headgear has the desired effect, he could run a big race.
Newmarket
I have had a look at two of the races at Newmarket being covered by ITV.
2:10 – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Be More won over 1m 2f at Sandown (good to firm) in July but made it 3-3 on soft when winning here over a mile last October. The 4-year-old is 3lb higher than her last win but should be competitive.
Moll Davis was a progressive 3-year-old and has run well on both her starts this season, First run for 113-days but won’t be far away if ready to roll. Has won on soft and placed on heavy in France 12 months ago.
Oti Ma Boati made it 2-2 when seeming to relish soft ground at Goodwood 36-days ago. Steps up to 1m 2f for the first time today but shaped last time like she would stay further than a mile. Very much on the shortlist for an inform yard.
2:45 – Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies & Mares) (Group 1) – 1m
Twelve fillies and mares are set to meet the starter for this Group 1 contest and but it looks competitive renewal.
Champers Elysees & Peaceful were first and second in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. The former has been one of the most improved horses in training this season. More than capable of winning this if in the same form as last time.
Peaceful won the Irish 1000 Guineas before finishing a close-up third in the French Oaks. Handles soft ground and given the Matron Stakes was her first start for 69-days she could be sharper today. There shouldn’t be much between the two 3-year-old’s today.
John Gosden saddles Terebellum & Nazeef. Terebellum won here over 1m 2f on her seasonal return before running Circus Maximus to a head in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Hasn’t been seen since finishing third to her stablemate in the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course 85-days ago. Goes well fresh so fitness won’t be an issue but she’s probably better on a sounder surface.
Nazeef won her first three starts this season but hasn’t been at her very best on either start since. Both those runs have come over 1m 2f and she will be better suited to returning to a mile. Good chance if returning to her early season form.
Billesdon Brook won this last year and the 1000 Guineas (2018) over C&D. A straight mile and a strong pace really suits the 5-year-old and she can never be ruled out here.
Feliciana De Vega, hails form the inform Ralph Beckett yard. The 4-year-old is one of the most interesting runners in the field. Lightly raced, just five starts, she’s having her first run since winning a Group 3 here over 1m 1f last October. Two from two at Newmarket and 2-2 on soft ground she remains open to more progress and is a lively each way contender.
French raider Half Light is another with each way claims. A winner of her first two starts this season she put in a career best on RPR’s when finishing a ¾ length runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauvile two starts back. Ground versatile but needs a career best to win this.
Verdict: You can’t rule out Billesdon Brook over her favourite C&D. The Irish pair of Champers Elysees and Peaceful have the best recent form coming into the race. The ‘Dark Horse’ of the race is Feliciana De Vega and both her and Half Light can get into the money.
1pt each way – Feliciana De Vega – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Half Light – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Sky Bet (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Redcar
3:25 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) – 6f
The usual big field for this valuable juvenile contest with 22 declared to run.
Lullaby Moon handled heavy ground effectively when winning a Goodwood two starts back and improved again to run last week’s Cheveley Park third Umm Kulthum to two lengths in a Group 3 at Ayr two weeks ago. Might need an extra furlong now but it’s sure to be a stamina test on soft ground. Has a favourites chance and is the one to beat!
Shark Two One won a valuable sales race at the Curragh 20-days ago and must be respected with possibly more improvement to come. Trainer Richard Fahey has won two of the last three renewals of the race.
One who could run well at a big price is Ey Up It’s Maggie. The filly won a soft ground Catterick maiden on her third start and although she was well behind Lullaby Moon at Ayr last time she goes well in the mud. Trainer Tony Coyle has aimed her at this race and after her Catterick win he told the Racing Post; “she’s one of the best I’ve ever had.”
Verdict: Some time it’s worth going with obvious one and favourite Lullaby Moon will be a tough nut to crack if reproducing her recent Ayr run. At bigger price I can see Ey Up It’s Maggie outrunning her odds, on ground that suits.
0.5pts each way – Ey Up It’s Maggie – 33/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John