Hi all,
It’s a Saturday to savor with Newmarket taking centre stage. We have two mouthwatering Group 1’s for juveniles which should provide plenty of clues for next year’s big races and the 29 runner Cambridgeshire Handicap to look forward to.
ITV are covering the four big races at Newmarket. Plus, two at Haydock and one from the Curragh. I have had look at all the races on the terrestrial channel.
Showers are forecast around the UK today but it’s hard to say how many will hit Newmarket & Haydock. The going at the time of writing at Newmarket is good, good to soft in places. While Haydock is reporting good to soft which could ease significantly if there’s a lot of showers around.
Let’s begin today’s preview at where else but Newmarket.
Newmarket
1:50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m
Just the five go to post but it’s still intriguing contest. New Mandate has benefitted from a gelding operation and showed a good attitude to win a Listed race at Doncaster 15-days ago. Different ground today and tries a mile for the first time. He can be keen in his races though which means he will probably need a good pace to chase to allow him to settle.
At the prices I like the Mark Johnston trained Gear Up. Unbeaten on both starts at York. He won the 7f Group 3 Acomb Stakes last time out and it was stamina that helped him to prevail that day. There are slight doubts about the Acomb form and just 1 winner of that race from 18 runners have gone onto win their next race. However, today’s extra furlong will suit the son of Teofilo and he should go well.
1pt win – Gear Up – 9/2 – Gen
2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) – 6f
A competitive looking renewal of the race with eight fillies declared to go to post.
Favourite Miss Amulet has the best form having won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York last month. Ryan Moore takes over on the Irish raider and she looks a worthy favourite.
Dandalla has won all her three starts but she has been off the track since winning a Group 2 on the July Course 78-days ago. If she’s at her best she won’t be far away.
Happy Romance & Alcohol Free were first and second in a Group 3 at Salisbury 23-days ago. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. However, the runner-up was only having her second start and could have more scope for improvement than the winner.
Umm Kulthum is an improving filly who came from the rear to win a Group 3 at Ayr last Saturday. If this race doesn’t come to quick, she a contender.
3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Eight go to post for what looks a good renewal of the race.
Lucky Vega has got the best form and has a favourite’s chance. A winner of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes two starts back and looked a shade unlucky in the run when 5th of 10 in the National Stakes 13-days ago. With a clear run he would have finished second. Suited by some ease in the ground he’s the one they all must beat.
Method posted an excellent time when winning a Listed race at Newbury and has scope for more improvement.
Minzaal was visually impressive when winning the Gimcrack at York last time. The form of that race has taken a few knocks since but 6 of the last 23 winners of the Gimcrack went onto win their next start and if you backed them all you would have made a £7.71 profit to a £1 level Stake. He might not turn out to be the best of these long term but he could have too much speed over 6f for his seven rivals.
Supremacy won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood 58-days ago. Like Gimrack the form of the Vintage Stakes can be questioned but he remains a contender.
3:35 – bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f
The big betting race of the week and the first part of the ‘Autumn Double’. You can make some sort of case for most of the field.
Tempus has won both his starts this season (first in the Stewards room). He carries a 4lb penalty for his last success Ascot, a race last year’s winner Lord North prepped in. Has won on good to soft so won’t be inconvenienced if the rain arrives. Progressive and a big player.
Bell Rock has been my idea of a likely winner of the race since he made it 2-2 on the Rowley Course on his seasonal reappearance in June. He stormed away from his rivals that day over a mile and showed he stays 1m 2f when 3rd of 18 at Goodwood last time. First run on going slower than good but he handles it he won’t be far away from stall 24.
A strongly run 1m 1f could well suit Derevo who just found an improver to strong at Doncaster (1m 2f) last time. He’s probably is better on good or quicker ground though.
William Haggas has a strong hand with Sinjaari, Montatham (14/1), and the improving Ilaraab who won last Saturday. Montatham could turn out to be the best of his three runners. Progressive in big field handicaps this summer. He wasn’t disgraced when runner-up in small field Listed race at Sandown 10-days ago. The ground was a shade to quick for the 4-year-old that day and he will be better suited by today’s conditions. Drawn on the far side and racing beyond a mile for the first time but is a solid contender.
The more rain the better for King Carney who made a good handicap debut when beaten just ¾ length by Tempus at Newbury 42-days ago and now gets 6lb from Tempus. A useful juvenile. winning a soft ground Listed race at Pontefract last October. Needs to improve to win but he’s a 3-year-old so it could be forthcoming. He’s closely handicapped with the likely favourite and twice that one’s price. William Buick takes the ride. Each way claims from stall 9.
The 3-year-old Lucander who put in a career best when beating 14 rivals at York last month on soft ground last month. Going the right way, he seems fairly ground versatile but as he showed last time soft ground does suit.
Verdict: A race where you could have three picks and not get any of them into the places. My three darts at the race are Bell Rock, King Carney & Lucander.
1pt each way – Bell Rock – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – King Carney – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Lucander – 20/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
4:10 – Rookie trainer George Boughey had had a great 2020 with 25 winners from 125 runners + 42.89. He saddles Mystery Angel who was a taking winner at Wolverhampton last time. Nursery & turd debut today but looks on a workable mark off 72 and could be well drawn in stall 17. Hopefully the filly can provide the trainer with another winner here.
1pt each way – Mystery Angel – 10/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Haydock
ITV are covering two races from Haydock. They may lack the quality of the Newmarket races but they are wide open handicaps. It will be interesting to see how the ground rides at Haydock today if the showers arrive.
2:05 – Alternative Fact put in a career best when winning over C&D back in June, off 4lb lower. Best form on soft ground and should be far away again.
Danyah has been steadily progressive on his last three starts winning at Doncaster (good to soft) before finishing third on his last two starts at Newbury & Ripon. Looks capable of winning off his present mark.
Milltown Star improved for getting soft/heavy ground last Autumn. The 3-year-old returned form 284-day break with a promising 4th of 8 at Goodwood (soft). Not quite as good on quicker ground at Doncaster 16-days ago but a return to softer ground and a step up to a mile should see him go close.
1pt win – Milltown Star – 8/1 @ Bet365
2:40 – Count D’orsay & Come Form the Dark were first and second in a similar race over C&D three weeks ago. The latter was only having his second start of the season and is fancied to reverse placings with the winner. Both are suited by soft ground and Count D’orsay really hit form at this time last season and his form figures on soft or good soft going are 11211. His stablemate Copper Knight is well handicapped on his best form and is 7lb lower than when beaten a short head at Newmarket (good to firm) on his seasonal reappearance and can’t be easily dismissed. However, he was only 7th behind his stablemate last time. Mid Winster bounced back to form when winning at Ayr 9-days ago (good to soft). She’s 5lb higher here but did win off a higher mark when trained in Ireland last season. Unproven on ground worse than good to soft.
1pt win – Count D’orsay – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
3:10 – Commanche Falls looked an improver when winning at Thirsk on good to soft on his seasonal return. Didn’t build on that on his next two starts but bounced back to form when winning over C&D 16-days ago. Now 5lb higher in a better race but shouldn’t be far away with cut in the ground.
Quick Look is in with a good chance should the ground soften further. The 7-year-old has been running well without winning. Finished 4th of 15 at Ripon 25-days ago. Danny Tudhope has been booked for the ride and he’s 4 wins from 7 rides 57% +9 when combining with trainer Mick Easterby in the past two seasons.
1pt win – Quick Look – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Curragh
3:15 – Alan Smurfit Memorial Beresford Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Aidan O’Brien has won the last nine running’s of this juvenile contest. He saddles three here in High Definition, Brazil & Sir Lucan. The first named impressed when winninghere over a mile on his racecourse debut last month. Looks a smart prospect and is the short priced favourite. Brazil improved for the fitting of the blinkers when also winning a maiden here last month. There should be more to come from him like High Definition. Wuqood, trained by Dermot Weld could give the O’Brien runners most to think about. The son of Dubawi is bred for middle distances but showed a good attitude to win on his racecourse debut at Gowran Park 45-days ago. Needs to have improved plenty for that initial run but he’s an exciting prospect.
4:50 – This is a cracking handicap. Jassaar won the Irish Cambridgeshire over C&D last season, off 1lb lower. Only beat one rival in this year’s race but that was on heavy ground and his best form has come on a sounder surface. Gets the first-time visor today and he can’t be ruled out if the ground was to dry out.
Dance Jupiter beat the much-improved Patrick Sarsfield on his second career start last October. Now with Joseph O’Brien the 4-year-old returned 343-day layoff to finish runner-up at Galway 18-days ago. Well suited to soft ground and could be nicely treated for his handicap debut.
Mythologic two best runs this season have come over C&D and was beaten less than two lengths into 6th in this year’s Irish Cambridgeshire. Capable of winning a handicap off, 2lb lower with Gavin Ryan taking off an additional 3lb, when all the cards fall right but he’s 1 win from 17 runs.
Quizical was 2nd of 20 in the Irish Cambridgeshire. Can race off the same mark here and shouldn’t be far away again.
Mudlahhim, in the same ownership as Jassaar, has only had the five starts. Yet to win, he finished runner-up to 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia on his 2-year-old debut and made a highly promising handicap debut when 2nd of 13 at Tipperary, off 2lb lower, 12-days ago.
1pt each way – Mythologic – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Mudlahhim – 16/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Listowel
2:50 – Humm Baby is 2-5 here at Listowel. The mare made an encouraging seasonal return when 3rd of 12 at Cork. Not quite as good when 5th of 18 at Punchestown 18-days ago but for mistakes at the third and second last hurdles she would have finished closer. Wouldn’t want the ground to get any softer but if it doesn’t, she won’t be far away at a track that suits.
1pt win – Humm Baby – 8/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John