Hi all,
Day 2 of Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting. The going eased on Thursday morning to good, good to soft in places. The day’s action looks better than Thursday’s although the field sizes remain on the ‘smallish’ side. ITV are covering four races from Newmarket this afternoon and you can read my thought on them below. All in all, a cracking day’s racing with the prospect of even better to come on Saturday.
Newmarket
1:50 – Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m
The ante post market is headed by the 5-year-old Ummalnar who hasn’t been seen since winning an Ascot handicap 440-days ago. Might be good enough to win if ready to roll after long absence. Trainer William Haggas has won this race three times since 2014.
Clock of Spirits third in the 1000 Guineas over C&D on her seasonal return hasn’t really built on that performance on subsequent runs. Drops into Listed class and back to a mile today after 7f to short at Doncaster 16-days ago.
John Gosden saddled the winner of this 2015 & 2016 and has two declared this year in Bizzi Lizzi & Indie Angel. The former looks the more likely of the pair with Frankie Dettori opting to ride the 3-year-old. She’s unbeaten on both her career starts and it’s interesting that the trainer ups her in class here given her handicap mark is 84.
Bounce The Blues twice a winner over 7f at Naas this summer, the latter of those wins in Listed company. Has since switched to Andrew Balding and was keeping on well to finish 3rd of 15 at Doncaster 16-days ago, finishing two places in front of Clock Of Spirits. Has a 3lb penalty for her Naas success to carry but will be suited by today’s easier ground. Capable of going close if staying the mile.
Verdict: Bounce The Bluescan go close if she stays the mile. Bizzi Lizzi looks the best of the Gosden pair. However, the lightly racedUmmalnar has a Group 1 entry and could be the best of these fillies.
1pt win – Ummalnar – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
2:25 – Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f
Just the six fillies & mares are set to meet the starter. The form pick and favourite is Alpinista who finished runner-up to Love in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Franconia looked a useful filly when winning a Listed race at York in July but was well beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks. That surely wasn’t her true running and if you forgive that effort, she’s a strong contender. Trainer John Gosden has a good record in the race – 4 winners from 12 runners 33% +12.88 8 placed 67% – since 2010.
Sir Michael Stoute saddled the winner of this race in 2013. He runs the progressive Katara. The 3-year-old has won her last two starts, at Kempton and latterly a Listed race on the July course. Looks worth her first go in Group company. Her Newmarket win came on good to firm so softer would be an unknown.
Antonia De Vega has won on soft ground and his 2-2 in Listed company. Looked like she needed every inch of the 1m 4f to win on her seasonal reappearance at Pontefract 102-days ago. Goes well fresh and soft ground will being her stamina into play.
3:00 – Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 7f
Monday built on the promise of her racecourse debut when winning a Leopardstown Listed race 13-days ago. Looks a smart prospect for next season over 1m+. Might need further than 7f but should be good enough here. I have already backed her each way for next year’s 1000 Guineas.
Alba Rose impressed when winning at Thirsk (good to soft) last time and has the scope to make up into a high class 3-year-old. She takes a big step in class here but I wouldn’t be surprised if she got into the money.
3:35 – Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 1f
Eight have been declared for the race of the day and it’s a cracker. They include last year’s winner Benbatl who makes his long-waited return to action. Goes well fresh won this race last year off even longer lay off. Big chance of another win in the race but wouldn’t want the going to soft.
This year’s race looks tougher than 12 months ago with 2000 Guineas winner Kameko in the field. Kameko is the class horse of the race and should be suited by the return to mile. However. he does have a 5lb penalty to carry for his Group 1 success and soft ground would be a unknown for the colt.
No issues with soft ground for the improving Top Rank. The 4-year-old stayed onto strongly for his six rivals when winning a soft ground Group 3 at Haydock 20-days ago. He won a handicap over C&D 12 months ago so we know he handles the track. He’s going the right way an deserves to take his chance in a Group 2.
Tilsit has won his last two and improved for his first start on the turf when winning a Group 3 at Goodwood (good to firm) 56-days ago. Given he’s only had the three career starts he’s open to plenty of further improvement. Has a similar chance to Top Rank, on a line with My Oberon, and at the weights doesn’t have much to find with Benbatl & Kameko. Different ground today than at Goodwood but a big plater if handling it.
Verdict: A cracker of a race. I’m hoping the forecast rain arrives overnight as the softer the ground the more I like the chance of Top Rank.
4:10 – Eqtidaar Godolphin Stakes (Listed Race) 1m 4f
Loxley heads the official ratings and the ante post betting. It’s his first start since winning the Group 2 ‘City Of Gold’ at Meydan in March and should go close if ready roll after a break.
Stablemate Walton Street returned from 405-day lay off to finish runner-up at Lingfield 13-days ago. Will be sharper today and doesn’t have much to find on ratings with the favourite.
Laafy is improving with racing and put in a career best on RPR’s when carrying top-weight of 10-0 to victory in a Class 2 handicap at Ascot three weeks ago. Looks worth the step into pattern class and is suited by ease in the ground.
4:45 – A field of nine are declared for the 1m 1f handicap that concludes the card and there are plenty in with a chance.
Make It Rain made it 2-2 on the synthetics, a maiden on grass after four starts, when winning at Wolverhampton 12-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success. That shouldn’t stop the3-year-old but softish ground may do. Yard’s horses are going well at present.
Kattani a winner (good to yielding) when trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld. Has yet to win on her three starts for Michael Appleby but has finished runner-up on her last two runs and put in a career best when 2nd of 12 at Newbury 7-days ago, under James Doyle who keeps the ride today. The first two pulled clear of the third that day and she can race off the same mark here.
If the Stuart Williams yard was in better form, I would like the chances of Marrionnier. A winner on heavy at Epsom 12 months ago, off 3lb lower. The 4-year-old was an eyecatcher when hampered and not getting a clear run in the final furlong at Sandown two starts back. On a competitive mark and can’t be ruled out.
Breath Caught was 2nd of 13 at Epsom 83-days ago. Might find this trip on the short side but can’t be totally discounted off 3lb higher than last time.
Wild Hero won a 7f Leicester maiden (good to soft) in July and hasn’t been disgraced on either start back in handicap company. Slowly away at Chester last time when finishing 3rd of 8, 14-days ago, and shouldn’t be far away again.
Both Mosakhar’s win have come on the Fibresand but the 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 8 at Redcar on first run on turf last month. That was his first start since February so he’s entitled to improve for that run but needs to if he’s to trouble better fancied rivals here.
Verdict: Kattanihas been knocking on the door on his last two starts and can hopefully go one better this time.
1pt win – Kattani – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
There’s also some good racing at Listowel and Dundalk today.
Listowel
3:15 – Ladbrokes “Where The Nation Plays” Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m
Golden Spear a previous C&D winner. Has run plenty of good races over both hurdles and on the flat but is on a losing run that goes back to November 2018. Despite being a 9-year-old he showed he was still capable of running well at good level when 3rd of 20 on the flat at the Galway Festival. Nicely handicapped on his best form and can go well.
Nibblers Charm is 1-1 over C&D and found plenty to power away from a big field when winning a handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival. Has run respectably on the flat since his Galway win and although he’s 12lb higher than for his last success looks capable of big run on ground that will suit.
Getaway Gorgeous looks on a good mark for handicap hurdle debut. The mare is a novice but she’s won two of her last three starts over hurdles and is improving with racing. Her jumping will be tested here against some experienced handicappers.
Verdict: Nibblers Charm has each way claims after a good win at Galway on his last start over hurdles but Getaway Gorgeous looks well handicapped for her handicap hurdle.
1pt win – Getaway Gorgeous – 5/1 @ Bet365
4:25 – Southampton Goodwill Plate Handicap Chase – 2m 6f
Minella Times just failed to get into the Kerry National. A winner at Navan (soft) back in December off 8lb lower. He then ran well to finish 2nd of 16 at Limerick over Christmas. Not been seen out since finishing well beaten in a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown 236-days ago. Surely better than that run and can go well fresh.
Owner JP McManus also has Bay Hill in the race. The 9-year-old has a good record at the course with form figures 31314. A solid 4th of 15 in the Galway Blazers last time. That was only 9-year-old’s fifth start over fences so he remains unexposed over the larger obstacles. Mark Walsh prefers him to Minella Times. Good chance in the re-applied cheekpieces if he stays the 2m 6f.
Treacysenniscorthy won a C&D beginners’ chase 12 months ago before going on to improve and win four handicap hurdles on the trot between November & February, including making all to win a valuable 3m handicap hurdle at Leopardstown. Ended last season with good effort to finish runner-up in novices handicap chase at Navan. Down the field over hurdles Punchestown 16-days ago but better expected and the 8-year-old looks well handicapped over fences off a mark of 124.
Verdict: Minella Times & Bay Hillgive J P McManus a strong hand in the race. Treacysenniscorthy lacks chasing experience but he’s got the build for the larger obstacles and he looks well treated on last seasons high class handicap hurdle form.
1pt win – Treacysenniscorthy – 11/2 @ Bet365
Dundalk
6:45 – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Diamond Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2 ½ f
Vatican City looked set for a good season when finishing runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas on his seasonal return. Hasn’t really gone from that performance but was 3rd of 10 in a Group 2 at Leopardstown last time. No issues with the surface as he won her last October.
Crossfirehurricane is 2-2 at the track. The 3-year-old won his first four starts and improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning a Group 3 at the Curragh on his first start since the end of lockdown. Probably didn’t stay when down the field in the Irish Derby (8/1). First run for 90-days but he goes well fresh. Could return to winning ways back down in trip. Stablemate Bolleville won a Listed race at Leopardstown three stars back before being slightly outclassed when 5th of 11 in a Group 1 at Deauville. Was doing her best at the finish when 4th of 11 to Cayenne Pepper in a Group 2 at Leopardstown 12-days ago. Seems progressive and has each way claims if she handles the surface.
Bowerman is 2-2 here including C&D and shouldn’t be far away although he’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field. The same applies Simsir who won here last September before finishing runner-up over C&D last December. Was beaten a length into second by Bolleville. In the mix if he gets a good pace to chase.
Verdict: The Joseph O’Brien pair of Crossfirehurricane & Bolleville look the biggest dangers to favourite Vatican City with a slight preference for proven Dundalk performer Crossfirehurricane who remains open to further progress.
7:15 – Both Major Reward’s career wins have come here, including C&D. Hasn’t been disgraced on his last three starts in valuable handicaps on grass. Better expected returned to the synthetics but stall 15 isn’t a positive.
Golden Valour is 2-5 over C&D. The latest of those wins came in March off 5lb lower. Not so good on two starts on turf. since Another expected to go well back on the surface and has a handy low draw.
Brinjal has yet to place on her six career starts. However, she put in a career best effort when 5th of 15 behind the improving Baron Samedi at Navan 15-days ago. She will surely win a race off her present mark. Ran well enough when 4th of 14 in a maiden here back in December so the surface shouldn’t be a problem for the daughter of Kingman.
Wilderness won her first three starts this season before finishing runner-up in the Ulster Oaks and Naas. The mare couldn’t dominate when down the field in a valuable Curragh handicap last time. If she bounces back, she’s on a competitive mark for her first start on the synthetics Stall 17 isn’t great for a front runner.
Eaglemont placed in two competitive maidens before disappointing when favourite at Navan 15-days. Handicap debut and first run on the all-weather for the lightly raced 3-year-old. Big weight to carry but claimer Mikey Sheehy takes off a handy 7lb. Another drawn high in stall 12, so will probably be ridden for luck.
Verdict: Wide draws are putting me off Major Reward and Wilderness. Eaglemont is interesting on his handicap debut but will probably need luck in running from his draw. Both Golden Valour and Brinjal have handy draws and looks the ones to focus on.
Cheers
John