Hi all,
A busy Saturday with the Ayr Gold Cup and the Group 2 Middle Park Stakes at Newbury. Due to time I’m just going to look at the races where I have selections.
Ayr
1:20 – The form of the Tim Easterby yard means recent Ripon runner-up Intello Boy must be respected. However, my fancy in this 1m Nursery Handicap is last time out Musselburgh winner Heights Of Abraham. The colt had shaped with promise on his racecourse debut here two starts back before overcoming greenness to win at Musselburgh 24-days ago. Today’s extra furlong should be fine and he looks to be on a workable mark for his handicap debut.
1pt win – Heights Of Abraham – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:30 – QTS Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
The lightly raced Kings Lynn is a strong favourite for the Silver Cup. The 3-year-old has only had three career starts. A winner at Doncaster 12 months ago. He ran recent York Listed winner Starman to 2 ½ lengths on his seasonal return last month. He will strip fitter for that run and mark of 94, likely underestimates him on his handicap debut.
Last year’s winner Golden Apollo is 3lb higher but showed he could be competitive of his mark when 2nd of 12 at York back in July. Big run expected from the ground versatile 6-year-old.
Bernardo 0’Reilly hasn’t been the most consistent of horses but he stayed on strongly to beat 14 rivals at Doncaster 9-days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but it was almost a career best effort from the 6-year-old.
Atalanta’s Boy also has a 5lb penalty to carry for a decisive success at Goodwood 20-days ago. The 5-year-old can be slowly away in his races as he has been on his last starts but looks the sort capable of landing a big handicap like this.
Verdict: Kings Lynn could be a very well handicapped horse but at the prices I prefer the claims of last time out winners Bernardo 0’Reilly & Atalanta’s Boy.
1pt each way – Bernardo 0’Reilly – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
1pt each way – Atalanta’s Boy – 9/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
3:40 – QTS Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
This year’s renewal doesn’t look as competitive as the Silver Cup. Nevertheless, it will be tough to find a winner as ever.
Nahaarr looked a sprinter on the up when winning at Newbury two starts back but could only finish 9th of 27 when 3/1 favourite for the Goodwood Stewards Cup. If you forgive that run, he’s got a good chance although might need the ground to dry out further.
Staxton bids for the hat trick after his recent win Ripon’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap. A 5lb makes life tougher but can’t be easily dismissed given his yard present form.
Hey Jonesy bounced back to form when winning the Wokingham handicap at Royal Ascot off 5lb lower. Kevin Ryan has a good record in the race 3 winners from 26 runners in the past 10-years. Well below that form in the Stewards Cup last time but a reproduction of his Wokingham run makes him a contender.
Ryan also saddles Bielsa. The 5-year-old was sent off the 5/1 favourite for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. A poor run there and subsequently in two small field races at Haydock, the most recent after a wind-op is a slight concern but a return to last season’s best would see him go close.
Arecibo can normally be guaranteed to run his race in these big field sprint handicaps without winning, as he did once again when 4th of 22 in the Portland Handicap 7-days ago. The first-time eye shield and returning blinkers replace the cheekpieces which is interesting. He probably needs to be placed on the line to win and is 0-9 over 6f.
Wise Counsel doesn’t have too many miles on the clock, just the ten runs and three wins. The last two of his wins have come at 7f and the last of those successes came at this meeting 12 months ago off 6lb lower. Just the two starts this season and shaped with encouragement for this when 8th of 16 at Ascot 14-days ago. Get’s the first time cheekpieces for a return to 6f and this could well have been the plan. Trainer Clive Cox won this race in 2009.
Verdict: Arecibo has the ability to go close but finds winning hard. Hey Jonesy and Bielsa are contenders for Kevin Ryan and my preference is for the latter who looks the sort to land a big pot like this. Wise Counsel looks interesting dropped back to 6f and in the first time cheekpieces and this looks to have been the plan.
1pt each way – Wise Counsel – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Bielsa – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
4:15 – Johan looked the type for good handicap when winning at Newbury three starts back. Bombed out when last of 16 at York last time. If you forgive that run which was too bad to be true then he has a good chance here.
1pt win – Johan – 13/2 @ Bet365
5:25 – National League caught the eye bounced when 3rd of 13 in the Doncaster 7f handicap 9-days ago. His effort can be slightly marked up as he didn’t get the clearest of runs when making his effort inside the final furlong. Looks competitive off the same mark and trainer Richard Fahey saddled the winner of this in 2012 & 2015.
1pt win – National League – 6/1 @ Bet365
Newbury
2:15 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Good Birthday was third in last years Cambridgeshire off 8lb higher and could be about to hit winning form.
Ilaraab bids for the four timer here. Up 6lb for his last success and this is a much tougher race but the lightly raced 3-year-old may not have stopped improving just yet.
Tenbury Wells just failed by a short head in his hat trick bid at Sandown 28-days ago. That was a career best effort form the 3-year-old and he could be capable of better.
Kingbrook was 1 ¾ length behind Tenbury Wells at Sandown and gets a 3lb pull from him today. That was the colts first run since switching to Ian Williams. He’s entitled to be sharper today and looks on a workable mark.
Maydanny so impressive when bouncing back to form at Goodwood struggled on soft ground at York last time. A return to a sounder surface will suit and he won’t be far away.
The City’s Phantom shaped with promise on both his juvenile starts last season. He was gelded over the winter and put in an a much-improved effort when winning at Yarmouth on his seasonal return 66-days ago. Up 9lb for that success but looks capable of more improvement and is at the right end of the handicap.
Verdict: The City’s Phantom is an intriguing runner with probably more improvement to come. Kingbrook should be better for his recent return to action at Sandown.
1pt win – The City’s Phantom – 17/2 @ Paddy Power
1pt win – Kingbrook – 11/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John