Hi all,
The Bronze Cup is the feature race of Day 2 of a competitive eight race card at Ayr. Not as busy on the betting front as yesterday.
Ayr
3:55 – QTS Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Call Me Ginger isn’t the most consistent of horses but will have his supporters and has finished runner-up twice this season, in the Scottish Stewards Cup and at Doncaster last week.
Alben Spirit & Abstemiouswere first & third at York (good) 12-days ago. Alben Spirit is now bidding for the hat trick after wins at York & Leicester. He’s only up 3lb for that last success and as a 3-year-old could be open to more improvement. Trainer Richard Fahey has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2009.
Abstemious is arguably better with some juice in the ground and gets 4lb from Alban Spirit. The first time cheekpieces are applied today and the 3-year-old is handicapped to land a race like this before the season is out.
Music Society won this race 12 months ago off 1lb higher. He hasn’t been in the same form on five starts this season but put in a more encouraging effort when 5th of 15 at Ripon 17-days ago. This race has likely been the plan all season and the yard is in red hot form.
Helvetian bounced back from a couple of low key runs this season when 4th of 12 at Haydock(soft) 14-days ago. He’s dropped down to a winning mark and today’s slightly better ground will be in his favour returned to 6f. Each way claims at a big price.
Verdict: Alben Spiritcould be capable of better still and should be favourite. He looks the one to beat. Music Society has likely been aimed at the race and is handicapped to win again. At bigger odds I wouldn’t dismiss the chances of Helvetian.
1pt each way – Helvetian – 20/1 @ @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Music Society – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
5:25 – Ralphy Boy Two looked to be an improver when a ½ length second at Hamilton two starts back. Looked the most likely winner coming to the furlong mark over 1m 3f at Musselburgh 17-days ago but his stamina seem to run out and he could only finish 5th. Drop back to mile looks a positive mood and the cheekpieces are applied for the first time this season. Yesterday’s easy winner Cassy O will be tough to beat if the quick turnaround doesn’t inconvenience but Ralphy Boy Two is an each-way suggestion here.
1pt each way – Ralphy Boy Two – 6/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)
Newbury
2:30 – The defection of Fox Vardy meansit might be worth taking a chance with the John Gosden trained Humanitarian. The 4-year-old, a Salisbury novice winner last May, was thrown in the deep end when 7th of 13 in last years Derby. Was below that form when only 7th of 8 in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. Hasn’t been seen since Ascot but has been gelded and remains a horse with potential on his handicap debut.
1pt win – Humanitarian – 4/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John