Hi all,
I should have been happy with BOG winners at 18/1 & 11/2 but I‘m shade frustrated that I ended up only 0.5pts win on East Street Revue. The recent losing run played a big part in the decision. Anyway, it’s all done so no need to dwell on it.
For a Friday there’s a good card at the Curragh with Group 3’s and the Irish Cambridgeshire the features of an eight-race card from the home of Irish flat racing.
This side of the Irish Sea there’s fixtures at Goodwood, Newmarket & Fontwell. I’m concentrating on the Curragh today but I also have a selection from Newmarket.
Curragh
2:40 – Kilcarn Stud Flame Of Tara Irish European Breeders Fund Stakes Fillies’ (Group 3) – 1m
Nicest impressed, despite a slow start, to beat nine rivals at Leopardstown last month on her racecourse debut. A daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh out of an Irish Oaks winner she’s bred to be smart and should do well over middle distances as a 3-year-old. Looks worth the step-up Group company today but the ground is likely to be different to last time.
Emaniya was given a kind introduction to racing when fifth over 7f here on her racecourse debut. Showed the benefit of that run when winning at Cork over a mile 20-days ago. The daughter of Sea The Stars is another who can do well over 1m 2f next season but can’t be ruled out here.
Ubuntu is thrown into the deep end here on just her second career start. Ran green in the early stages here over 7f, 14-days ago and was being pushed along three furlongs from home. Once she got the hang of racing, she was doing her best work inside the final furlong to finish 5th of 8. Plenty of improvement needed to win this but progress can be expected.
0.5pts each way – Ubuntu – 12/1 @Bet365
3:40 – Paddy Power Irish Cambridgeshire (Premier Handicap) – 1m
Jassaar won this last year off 5lb lower. Tougher off his new mark on different ground but he’s looked to have been trained for this again and should run again for a yard among the winners.
Jessica Harrington saddles a couple of contenders in Njord & Only Human. The former has won twice here with the last win coming over 1m 2f three starts back. He’s improved since finishing runner-up twice at the recent Galway Festival. Back to a mile today and well suited to the mud but is 6lb higher than last time. Still he’s expected to go well. Stablemate Only Human finished one place behind Njord at Galway. The application of the first time cheekpieces seemed to have the desired effect and he shouldn’t be far away on soft ground that will suit.
Trading Point made an encouraging stable debut when 5th of 8 at Killarney 7-days ago. Handicapped to win races for new yard in time but may prefer slightly better ground.
Laughifuwant a winner of a valuable handicap at Galway last season maintained his form on three subsequent runs. Returned from a 281-day lay off to finish 8th of 16 at Galway last time. Should be better for that run, will like the soft ground but has yet to show his best on a straight track.
Quizical finished three places in front of Laughifuwant at Galway and with a clear run would have finished better than 5th. Disappointed on good ground at Gowran Park on his next start before finishing 4th in a Listed race at Killarney, returned to soft ground last week. A previous C&D winner his best form has come with plenty of juice in the ground and all three of his wins have come when running within 15-days of his last start. Still 4lb above his last winning mark but a very useful apprentice takes off a handy 7lb and likely to go well.
Mythologic ran an eyecatching race when 4th of 16 over C&D two starts back. Would have finished much closer but didn’t get the best of runs inside the final furlong. Yet to win on turf after 12 starts but has twice run well over C&D this season. Never really got into the race at Dundalk 13-days ago but the 3-year-old has a good handicap in him when all the cards fall right. Not sure he wants as soft as ground as this though.
Strongbowe is one of the least exposed runners in the field. Looked a decent prospect when winning a Roscommon maiden on his second career start. Struggled from a high draw at Leopardstown on his handicap debut. Ran slightly better than his final position of sixth suggests at Cork 12-days ago. Has been beaten favourite on both his last two starts which suggests think his present mark is workable. Nathan Crosse takes off a handy 5lb but the 4-year-old probably needs the first-time visor to eke out a bit more improvement. Each way claims if they do.
Verdict: Jassaar has a solid chance of back to back wins in the race if he handles today’s much softer going. There’s likely a decent pot in Mythologic but this sort of going is an unknown. No problems with the ground for Quizical, who has each way claims and Strongbowe who’s one of the least exposed runners in the field and looks on a competitive mark
1pt each way – Quizical – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (paying six places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Strongbowe – 18/1 @ Paddy Power (paying six places 1/5 odds)
4:40 – Tresorier is on a 23-race losing run but he ran well in a couple of big field handicaps last autumn, including C&D and on his seasonal return at Naas in March to think he can win a handicap like this. Returned from a 145-day lay off to finish an excellent 3rd of 14 at Dundalk and can race off 2lb lower today. Must be held up to come with a late run which always makes him a hostage to fortune in his races but if he gets a clear passage should go close.
1pt win – Tresorier – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newmarket
The going is being forecast as good but showers are forecast so it probably won’t be much quicker. Man of Promise could easily be much better than his opening mark of 92 but he’s plenty short enough in the betting in what looks a competitive 6f handicap.
Endowed is more exposed then the likely favourite but put in a career best effort on RPR’s when 2nd of 12 over C&D 13-days ago. That was his first start since a wind-op and he’s been nudged up 3lb for that effort in a slightly better race now. Soft ground would be an unknown but he shouldn’t be far away again.
Owney Madden two best performances have come at York although he did win at Newbury last season. Career best when winning a valuable nursery last August and returned to that form when 4th of 18 back at York 41-days ago. Remains 4lb above his last winning mark. Both wins have come on good or good to soft so shouldn’t have any problem with the ground. Trainer has just had three runners in the past 14-days but they all have placed so a big run could be forthcoming.
Many A Star looked an improving handicap sprinter when winning at Doncaster two starts back. Up 4lb and did best of those coming from off the pace when 3rd at Pontefract two weeks ago. Remains progressive and can win more races. Best form so far on good to firm and has yet to race on going worse than good. Each way claims if going is suitable.
Verdict: The one to beat looks to be Man of Promise. There are several with each way claims no more so than Endowed, Owney Madden and Many A Star.
1pt each way – Owney Madden – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John