Hi all,
Grandmaster Flash sneaked into the places in the big amateur rider’s handicap at Galway yesterday to keep losses down to a minimum. It’s day one of the Qatar Glorious Goodwood Festival albeit behind closed doors until Saturday and the 1,000 people trial. The feature race of the day is the Goodwood Cup in which Stradivarius gets to face a real rival in Irish Derby winner Santiago.
Goodwood
1:45 – Unibet You’re On Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Looking at the last twelve running’s of this handicap by draw segment. The first thing to notice is that being drawn in the lowest stalls (1 to 4) isn’t a necessarily a positive. The lightly raced Maydanny won at Yarmouth on his seasonal return before doing best of the small group that raced far side in the Silver Hunt Cup. Has run poorly since at Newmarket but could easily bounce back here with Silvestre De Sousa an interesting jockey booking for the 4-year-old. Those draw stats though are a bit of a concern.
Babbo’s Boy looked an improver when showing a nice turn of foot to win at Haydock two starts back but the 4-year-old never got into the race when a well beaten 15th of 16 back at the same venue in the Old Newton Cup. Maybe the drop back to 1m 2f and he could bounce back here but there are others with more stronger claims.
Stall 17 may not be an inconvenience for Cape Cavalli. The 4-year-old has returned to action with career best efforts at Newcastle and latterly when running out a comfortable winner at York 19-days ago. That was a Class 4 race though and he takes a rise in class here. Up 8lb but if he gets a good pace to chase, he won’t be far away and the yards runners are going well.
Tinandali has been an eyecatcher on both his last two starts at Epsom & York. The 4-year-old was held up in the rear, in the John Smith’s Cup Handicap, didn’t get a clear of runs down the stands rail a furlong out and had to be switched left. Once in the clear he ran on to finish 6th of 22. With a better passage I think he would have finished at least third. There is a race like this in him when all the cards fall right. Trainer David O’Meara saddled last years winner.
Fifth Position was third in that race. A winner at Doncaster, off 5lb lower, two starts back the 4-year-old remains progressive and interestingly trainer Roger Varian opts for the first-time blinkers. If the race doesn’t come too quick after York, he’s got a big chance.
Verdict: Cape Cavalli looks on the upgrade and hails from a bang in form yard. Maydanny will bounce back in one of these races sooner rather than later. Both Tinandali and the first time blinkered Fifth Position are respected if this race doesn’t come to quick after York.
1pt win – Cape Cavalli – 6/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Fifth Position – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:45 – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) – 7f
Sir Dancealot did us a favour when winning this race 12 months ago. He bids for a hat trick today and his run in the July Cup was promising. A lot depends on the going as he’s a better horse on a sound surface.
Duke Of Hazzard is another who seems more effective on quick ground. He improved last year to win Group 2 & 3 races over a mile here last August. Now 3 wins from 3 runs at Goodwood he clearly handles the undulations well. The blinkers that were off at Ascot last time return today for the drop back to 7f and he’s got a good chance especially if the ground doesn’t ease too much.
Verdict: You can never rule out Sir Dancealot in this race. However, Duke Of Hazzard has an exceptionally good record at the course and looks the pick.
1pt win – Duke Of Hazzard – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
3:15 – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 2m
This looks a match between Stradivarius & Santiago. The latter gets plenty of weight from Stradivarius and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t able to take advantage of it. However, whether Goodwood’s undulations will suit him is an unknown.
3:45 – Qatar Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
There could be a real pace burn up here with plenty who like to go from the front. Of those front runners I do like the claims of Recon Mission. The 4-year-old won a valuable 6f handicap at York last June off today’s mark. He bounced back to form when 3rd of 10 to Nahaarr over 6f, nine days ago. He has plenty of speed. likes a bit of ease in the ground and can surely pop up in one of these races before too long. Trainer Tony Carroll won this race with Boom The Groom in 2016.
Final Venture is on a long losing run that goes back to June 2017 but his trainer Paul Midgley is 6 winners from 27 runners 22% +24.29 in the past 14-days and the 8-year-old ran well when 5th of 18 at Ascot 17-days ago. Has dropped another 2lb since Ascot and can’t be ruled out.
Celsius has been an improving sprint handicapper since winning over C&D at this meeting 12 months ago. A winner at Haydock on his seasonal return. He probably didn’t stay the 6f when returned to that venue and bounced back to form when runner-up at Newmarket 18-days ago. His hold up style wasn’t seen to best effect at Newmarket and today’s strong gallop will be more to his liking.
If the rain arrives then you can’t rule out Count D’orsay who improved for soft ground and sharp 5f last autumn. He’s just 2lb higher than his last winning mark and this track looks set to suit.
Verdict: Recon Mission is back down to a winning mark but the number of front runners suggests the race could be set up for a closer like Celsius. Count D’orsay comes into contention should soft be in the going description.
1pt win – Recon Mission – 5/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Celsius – 7/2 @ Bet365
4:55 – British European Breeders Fund EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 4f
A tricky 12 runner handicap for fillies closes the day one of Glorious Goodwood.
Dancing Approach has improved for the step up to around 1m 4f winning her two last starts both at Haydock. She’s been raised another 8lb but is ground versatile, going the right way, and can’t be ruled out in her bid for the hat trick.
Tulip Fields won her first two starts of the season, including here before disappointing at Sandown. Ran better when third behind a stablemate in Listed race at Hamilton last time 12-days ago. Back in handicap company for trainer who does well at this meeting and has a big chance.
Believe In Love is having her first start back on grass since her racecourse debut. Improved for the step up to 1m 3f when winning at Kempton when last seen in action in March. Up 4lb in a much better race but is another with claims if fully fit after a 139-day layoff.
The lightly raced Chartered hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound but impressed when winning over C&D in June last year but she never got competitive on her next start at Newmarket in November. Can’t be totally dismissed if trainer Ralph Beckett has her fully tuned up for this.
Verdict: A tough concluding race. Tulip Fields is a strong contender from the Mark Johnston yard. If Believe In Love can transfer her all-weather form to the turf she’s a big danger. Dancing Approach is an improving filly who may not have reached her ceiling yet. The lightly raced C&D winner Chartered returns from another long absence but has claims if ready to roll.
Galway
5:45 – Champers Elysees is a filly going the right way after winning a Curragh 7f handicap on her seasonal return. Steps up to Listed company today but she’s ground versatile and has a handy low draw.
1pt win – Champers Elysees – 5/1 @ Bet365
6:15 – Trainer Michael Mulvany had a winner here yesterday and his runner In From The Cold will enjoy the return to genuinely soft ground. More exposed than most but the 3-year-old was doing his best work at the finish when 5th of 14 at Curragh 9-days ago.
Layfayette has just had the five career starts and the colt could be capable of better now back in to handicap company.
Frank Arthur won a Roscommon Maiden two starts back before a close-up 2nd of 14 on his handicap debut at the Curragh 9-days ago. He finished 1 ¾ lengths ahead of In From The Cold that day but is 3lb higher today. That said he looks capable of more progress.
Joven remains a seven-race maiden but he’s only had two runs in a handicap and the step up to an extended mile could bring out some more improvement.
Verdict: Frank Arthur is a big player for the inform Ger Lyons yard. In From the Cold represents a stable who had a winner here and has each way claims.
0.5pts each way – In From The Cold – 20/1 @ Bet365
6:45 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m ½ f
The big betting race of day two of the Galway Festival and there’s plenty in with a chance.
Tauran Shaman a winner over C&D 12 months ago, off 5lb lower, put in a career best effort when 3rd of 16 to Nebo at Cork 16-days ago and gets 10lb from winner here. First time cheekpieces are enlisted today and the forecast strong gallop should him better than last time. Has a solid favourites chance although might prefer better ground?
Nebo was 50/1 when winning the Cork race. He got an uncontested lead that day which seems unlikely here. Up 10lb demands more but the 5-year-old did win the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes as a juvenile when trained in England by Charlie Hills and isn’t handicapped out of this despite top-weight.
Magnetic North was in good from early last summer winning handicaps at Navan & the Curragh. Didn’t get the best of runs in this last year when finishing 7th. Finished third at this meeting in the ‘Ahonoora” over 7f a few days later. Form deteriorated after that but his 4th of 17 at Navan 25-days ago was more encouraging and he’s got place claims.
On Session finished one place ahead of Magnetic North in the ‘Ahonoora” Handicap last year. Lightly raced he looked to be coming into form at the right time when 6th in the race that Nebo won at Cork. Likes ease in the ground and should be bang there from his low draw.
Verdict: Nebo may not get the run of the race like he did last time but can’t be ruled out. A stronger overall gallop will suit Tauran Shaman but he may be slightly better on a sounder surface. Magnetic North & On Session both look to be coming into form at the right time.
1pt win – On Session – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Nebo – 12/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John