Hi all,
Slaney East ran poorly at Down Royal in the Ulster Oaks. But I thought coming into the straight I thought Sunchart was going to hold on and win the Ulster Derby but was nabbed in the 50yds by Red Kelly.
Onto Saturday and Ascot is centre stage with the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes the day’s feature race. It has attracted a disappointing field of just four runners but they are all Group 1 winners.
Enable is the short price favourite to gain her third win in the race in the past four years. The other three runners are trained by Aidan O’Brien are led by last season’s International Stakes winner Japan and last years Epsom Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck & Irish Derby winner Sovereign. A small but select field then which will hopefully make for a good contest.
Besides Ascot, there are also decent supporting cards at York & Newmarket. It’s all part of a bonanza double header for ITV racing viewers who are covering racing on both Saturday & Sunday.
The weather forecasters are suggesting that there could be prolonged and heavy showers at both Ascot & Newmarket. Not for the first time in recent weeks the weather could play havoc with today’s selections.
It’s the start of a week of high-class racing which continues on Sunday and through the rest of the week at Goodwood & Galway.
I shall start this betting preview at Ascot.
Ascot
2:25 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Twenty go to post for this competitive handicap.
Blue Mist heads the market. He’s clearly got the ability to win a handicap like this and goes well here but in all truth he’s too short for me.
Eshaasy travelled strongly but failed to get home in the Britannia Handicap over a mile at the Royal Meeting. The drop back to 7f at Sandown suited him last time as he managed to hold onto win by a nose. Up 4lb for that win but George Rooke takes off 5lb which negates his rise in the weights. Three-year-olds are, however, 0 wins from 23 runners 4 placed in the race in the past 10 years.
Edbury did best of those drawn low in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over C&D when finishing 6th. He won her last season over a mile and looks nicely drawn this time. Might need the ground to ease a bit further but still very much a contender.
Shelir was 5th in the Buckingham Palace. A shade disappointing when only 6th at Haydock on his next start. The drop back to 7f looks a positive and looks capable of winning a handicap like this.
Arbalet, like Shelir trained by David O’Meara, put in a career best in this race two years ago off 13lb higher when with previous trainer Hugo Palmer. Yet to win on his four starts for David O’Meara but was only beaten a neck at Redcar three starts back and she showed he was still in form when 4th of 19 at York 7-days ago.
Mutamaasik ran a cracker to finish third in the Buckingham Palace. Was then sent off 100/30 favourite for the Bunbury Cup two weeks ago but beat only one home. Return to C&D will hopefully see the 4-year-old in a better light and if you draw a line under his Newmarket run then he’s got a great chance here.
I tipped Blackheath in my Wednesday Daily Punt column as the each- way value in the race and I still think he is. However, he does need quick ground to be seen at his best and any rain wouldn’t be welcome.
Chiefofchiefs relished the drop back to 6f when winning the Silver Wokingham at the Royal Meeting. Up to 7f shouldn’t be an issue and he clearly goes well on Ascot’s straight track but he is 5lb higher and rain would be a slight concern, as his form figures on good in Britain are 11311. Buick stays in the saddle and I expect the 7-year-old to remain competitive.
Verdict: Eshaasy has a good profile and is trained by John Gosden. But the 3-year-old race stat is a worry. You know that the O’Meara pair of Shelir & Arbalet will pop up in a handicap like this one day. Blackheath is a big player but wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much further. Surely Mutamaasik didn’t get give his running in the Bunbury Cup and is better judged on his third in the Buckingham Palace.
1pt win – Mutamaasik – 9/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Blackheath – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Chiefofchiefs – 10/1 @ Bet365
4:10 – Western Duke won this race last year off just 1lb lower. Has to put an underwhelming reappearance effort on the all-weather behind him but trainer Ian Williams has his horses in much better from now 3 winners from 11 runners in the past 7-days.
Frontispiece won here as juvenile and is just 1lb above his last winning mark. Ryan Moore stays in the saddle and his form figures when riding the 6-year-old are 1132. Ran a nice prep for this when 2nd of 8 at Newmarket 14-days ago and should be sharper for that run and is 2 wins from 2 runs when racing between 8 & 15 days since he last run.
1pt win – Frontispiece – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
1pt each way – Western Duke – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:20 – Sleeping Lion goes well very on good to firm going, form figures 1321. He’s also placed on all six of his starts in Class 3 company. Nudged up 2lb for his 2nd of 6 at Newcastle two weeks ago. Should be there or thereabouts at the finish but maybe more of a place contender again.
The bang in form Solo Saxaphone comes into the race looking for a four timer and although he’s now 10lb higher he may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.
The booking of Frankie Dettori for Scaramanga is an eyecatching one and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces could make all the difference for the 5-year-old who’s got plenty of ability.
Speedo Boy won this in 2018, off 1lb higher and that was the 6-year-old’s last win. He’s 2 wins from 3 runs over today’s distance, form figures 311 and is 2 wins from 5 runs on good ground. He will be all the better for recent seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, Finished 2nd of 15 in a valuable Newmarket handicap on his second start after a lay off last season. On a good handicap mark and the form of the Ian Williams stable is much better now.
1pt win – Speedo Boy – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
York
1:30 – There’s a bit of theme today, as it’s another Ian Williams horse that interests me here. The veteran Shady McCoy rolled back the years when winning for the first time in three years with a decisive success at Haydock last month. Has been given a 47-day break to freshen him up which is a plus given he’s 1 win from 25 runs 5 placed when returning from a 15 or less day break. Up 6lb but has won off much higher marks in the past so the previous C&D shouldn’t be underestimated.
1pt win – Shady McCoy – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
3:50 – Tukhoom bounced back to form when winning over C&D 7-days ago. He’s up 6lb for that success which makes life harder but he’s got a good record when racing within 7-days of his last start 3 wins from 7 runs 5 placed.
If the rain arrives Autumn Flight is a big contender. The 4-year-old bounced back to form with an eyecatching 4th of 12 at Haydock 7-days ago. Races off the same mark here but probably needs the rain to arrive to ease the ground.
1pt win – Tukhoom – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Autumn Flight – 8/1 @ Bet365
4:25 – Roundhay Park seemed to return to form when finishing 5th of 18 over C&D behind Tukhoom last week. He didn’t help his cause with a slow start but ran on well. The 5-year-old’s losing now stands at 20. That said he’s dropped down to a tempting mark and can cash in when all the cards fall right.
Look Out Louie is now 5lb below his last winning mark and was finishing race off strongly when 4th of 12 at Catterick 10-days ago and has to be considered a big contender.
Medicine Jack is another who dropped down to a winnable mark and ran really well when 2nd of 12 at Ayr to an improving 3-year-old 11-days ago. The first-time visor replaces the blinkers today and he’s another with claims.
1pt win – Roundhay Park – 4/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power
1pt win – Look Out Louie – 5/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power
Cheers
John