Hi all,
Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 4
Well two profitable days let’s hope Thursday has witnessed more of the same. I will be missing the live action today, as I am in hospital undergoing some rather uncomfortable tests that men of a certain age tend to have. I will spare you the details, but I will be sore this evening in a place you don’t really want to be.
It’s Gold Cup Day on Friday and the ground seems to have dried up a bit. The going description is good to soft at the time of writing this on Thursday morning. Rain is forecast for overnight and on Friday morning, but how much?
Plenty of good races to get stuck into. Not just the Gold Cup but the Triumph and Albert Bartlett Hurdles, as well as three fiendishly tough looking handicaps.
1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
The form chance of hot favourite Sir Erec is there for all to see and from a brief look at the trends he seems to tick all the key ones. Tiger Tap Tap was expected to give Sir Erec a race at Leopardstown but finished a disappointing 4th. He’s surely better than that and has each way claims but I don’t see him beating the favourite.
At an each-way price you could probably do worse than have a bit on Coeur Sublime, one of two Gordon Elliott trained runners. The juvenile has been crying out for some softer ground which he should get on Friday. I’m expecting a much-improved performance from him.
Hannon, is an interesting contender from the John McConnell stable. A winner at Musselburgh on his second start over hurdles. He improved further to be just beaten a nose in a Grade 2 at Navan< he remains open to further improvement. This will be his first run on soft ground which is an unknown. Could easily out run his big odds.
2:10 – Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f.
A maximum field of 26 are set to go to post for the race. Now I usually nail a couple of the big handicaps at the Cheltenham but all the five winners I have identified have come in non-handicap races. Let’s hope I can put that right today.
Last years Triumph Hurdle winner Mr Adjudicator, has yet to finish out of the first two over hurdles and wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen at Naas on his seasonal reappearance 125-days ago. He’s probably been waiting for the ground to ease and needs to be respected but his weight of 11-8 is a shade off putting. He’s one of three Willie Mullins trained runners and the trainer has won four of the last ten renewals of the race.
Monsieur Lecoq, is another who needs respecting. He’s 3lb lower than when finishing runner-up in Saturday’s Imperial Cup. If that race hasn’t taken too much out of the 5-year-old, he looks sure to go close off his slightly reduced mark.
Lisp & Eclair De Beaufeu are two recent eyecatchers running in the race. The former disappointed in the rescheduled Betfair Hurdle at Ascot on his last start. He’s capable of better than that and has place claims.
The Gordon Elliott trained Eclair De Beaufeu is the more interesting of the pair. The 5-year-old has won 2 of his seven start since going hurdling. He finally broke his maiden tag when winning at the 4th attempt at Limerick before going onto win at Fairyhouse. He made a good handicap debut when 4th of 19 in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown 41-days ago when he was doing his best work at the finish. I was hoping he would have stepped up a bit further in trip, but the extra furlong and rain softened ground can bring his stamina into play.
Of the rest keep an eye on Crooks Peak who made it three from four over hurdles when winning at Newbury 13 -days ago. That was his first run since November, so he’s entitled to have improved for the run. Looks set for a big run off just 5lb higher than last time.
Monsieur Lecoq – 11/1 @ William Hill
Eclair De Beaufeu – 12/1 @ William Hill
Crooks Peak – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds0
2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) – 3m
My colours are firmly nailed to the mast of the Rebecca Curtis trained Lisnagar Oscar after I advised him ante-post at 8/1 after his recent Haydock win. He’s got the right profile for the race, but my slight worry would be very soft ground for the son of Oscar.
The best horse in the race could eventually turn out to be the Nicky Henderson trained Birchdale. He lacks the experience of Lisnagar Oscar but he’s a horse with a big future. Owner JP McManus also has the twice raced Dickie Diver in the race. He was runner-up to Lisnagar Oscar on his hurdle debut back in January before a comfortable maiden hurdle win at Chepstow 20-days ago. Like his stablemate, he lacks the experience you normally expect from a winner of this race, he has plenty of potential to improve further.
Irish raider Derrinross has been backed in the last few days. The 8-year-old has won both his starts over hurdles on soft ground. No doubting his stamina for 3m, as he won at Limerick over the distance on his last start. The softer the ground the better his chance becomes.
3:30 – Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f
Jump racings blue riband race and the openness of the contest can be gauged from the fact that a field of 16 are set to go to post for this year’s race. It still has the potential to be a high-class renewal.
Presenting Percy has had a very unorthodox preparation for the race just the one run, due to the quick ground over in Ireland, when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park 50-days ago. Hasn’t jumped a fence since running out an impressive winner in last years RSA Novices’ Chase. He also won the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle here in 2017. He likes the track 2 wins from 2 run and and is 4 wins from 5 runs on soft ground. Needs to improve to win this but has the potential to be a high-class staying chaser.
Presenting Percy – 4/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
4:10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2 ½ f
Not a race for me!
4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
A couple of eyecatchers run in this: Forest Bihan and Mind’s Eye. The former is a strong traveller but doesn’t find a lot when let down as occurred at Doncaster on his last start. The 8-year-old has top-weight of 11-12 to carry which is a tough ask but could get the race run to suit.
Mind’s Eye, made his handicap chase debut at Leopardstown last month off what looked a winnable mark. He never really looked like winning but made some good headway coming to the last and ran well to finish 5th of 14. He won at 2m 4f, over hurdles, last season and the way he ran here suggests he might need that sort of trip over fences. But the strong pace will be in his favour and he’s more than capable of winning a good handicap chase. Looks the stronger win contender of the pair.
Not Another Muddle, trained by Gary Moore looks the ideal type for this race. The 8-year-old returned for a near 13-month absence to finish third at Sandown and built on that run with a decisive win back at the same track 28-days ago. He’s an improving handicap chaser, whose 3 wins from 4 runs over fences and all his career wins have come on soft. First run at Cheltenham but if he handles the track must be in with a big chance.
Top Gamble, one of three runners from the Kerry Lee stable, was third in this race last year, beaten 4 ¾ lengths. He can now race off 6lb lower. The 11-year is vulnerable to any improvers in the fiel. However, if he gets his favoured soft ground, he has each way claims, despite having fallen on his last two starts.
Not Another Muddle – 13/2 @ Bet365
Mind’s Eye – 10/1 @ William Hill
5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Mr Antolini, likes these big field handicap scenarios and has winning form on soft ground. Slight stamina concerns but he’s on a competitive mark if his stamina isn’t stretched on soft ground.
Daybreak Boy, trained by Henry De Bromhead, made it 2 wins from 7 runs over hurdles when winning at Clonmel 64-days ago, this is a lot harder, but he looks progressive and he makes his handicap hurdle debut on a competitive mark. The booking of top Irish Conditional jockey Donal McInerney is a positive one.
Discordantly, is 0 from 4 over hurdles and is another making his handicap debut here. The 5-year-old has placed on his last three starts all in fields 20+. A strong pace will be in his favour and he shouldn’t be discounted.
Gordon Elliott has won the last two running’s of this race. He saddles three all of which are well fancied in the ante-post market. The ante-post favourite is Dallas Des Pictons who’s won his last two starts, including making a winning handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown 40-days ago. That win came over 3m, but he shouldn’t have to many issues with the drop back in distance Three starts back he was runner up Ballymore winner City Island which looks strong form now. Solid favourites chance with more to come from the 6-year-old
Cartwright, also trained by Elliott, wasn’t disgraced when running on into 12th at Leopardstown on his last start. That was over 2m and he needs 2m 4f to be at his best. The soft ground has come in his favour and he’s another who can go well returning to this sort of trip.
Dallas Des Pictons – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Daybreak Boy – 16/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Good luck with your bets.
Cheers
John