Hi all,
Royal Ascot concludes today with a bumper eight race card. It seems like they have kept the best till last. We have three Group 1, the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, Coronation Stakes & St James’ Palace Stakes. We also have two Group 2 juvenile contests the Queen Mary Stakes & Coventry Stakes. Add in the Wokingham Handicap and its consolation the Silver Wokingham and you have a day brimmed with competitive racing.
My final long form preview and oh boy it is a long one!
My selections for the final day’s action will be with you in the morning, as I wait to see what the weather does overnight.
Royal Ascot – Day 5
12:40 – Silver Wokingham Handicap (A Consolation Race For The 2020 Wokingham Stakes) (Class 2) – 6f
It’s hard to say how the draw will pan out here but most of the pace seems to be down the middle.
My ‘cliff horse’ Blue Mist (20) heads the market. The drop back to 6f is interesting and a big field set up really suits. If he was 12/1 rather than 6s I might be tempted in one final time but I will swerve him today. Cue a win for the talented but hard to win with 5-year-old.
The recent rain and subsequent easing of the ground has meant Blue Mist has taken over from Swindler (2) at the head of the market. Swindler made it 2 from 2 over C&D when winning a handicap here on his final start of 2019. The 4-year-old made a satisfactory return to action at Newmarket but this has probably been the plan. A return to C&D will suit and if the ground dries out, he’s got a major chance.
The opposite is the case for Aplomb (13), trained by William Haggas, who needs genuinely soft ground to be at his best. His best three RPR’s have come with soft in the going description. With a career best coming on soft over C&D back in October. Looks to have returned to action in fine fettle having finished 5th at Newmarket 14-days ago over an inadequate 5f on good to firm ground. Will be spot fitness but will he get his ground?
Louie De Palma (12) has plenty of all-important C&D form with his form figures reading 112. He seems ground versatile and has won off a long layoff. Each way chance but slight concern that this grade of race will prove to much for the 8-year-old whose 0 wins from 8 runs 2 placed in Class 2 handicaps.
Count D’Orsay (16) was highly progressive 5f handicap sprinter on soft ground at the end of last season. The 4-year-old made a pleasing return to action finishing third (Aplomb 5th) at Newmarket 14-days ago. Ascot’s 6f is one of the stiffest in the country so how strongly will this speedy gelding be finishing off his race? There’s a nice pot or two in the gelding this season but will it be over 5f? He should be spot on fitness wise and Osin Murphy is an eyecatching jockey booking so he can’t be discounted despite slight stamina reservations.
Chiefofchiefs (15) is an interesting contender dropping back to 6f for the first time in his career. All his five career wins have come over 1m or 1m2f. The 7-year-old hasn’t won since January 2019 but shaped with encouragement when dropped back to 7f for the first time at Meydan in February when a strong finishing 3rd of 10. A strongly run race over 6f where the pace collapses could suit. Not easy to win with but could pop up in a race in which the leaders come back to him and William Buick is an interesting jockey booking.
Verdict: When I don’t tip Blue Mist will be the day, he goes in. I really fancied Aplomb when the rain arrived early in the week but drying ground has put me off. The drying ground brings dual C&D winner Swindler very much back into the mix. Count D’Orsay can win races off his present mark but this is a stiff 6f. Louie De Palma who goes well over C&D has place claims. Chiefofchiefs has dropped to a fair mark he may well be run off his feet in the early stages of the race but if they go hard up front he could get into the money.
1:15 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) – 5f
The only juvenile race at Royal meeting that has eluded Aidan O’Brien in recent years is the Queen Mary – 0 winners from 7 runners 1 placed in the past 12-years. He saddles the likely favourite in More Beautiful. The daughter of War Front who looked a smart filly in the making when making a winning racecourse debut at Naas 11-days ago (good to firm). On the evidence of that run in a quick time she will be hard to beat here if the ground continues to dry out.
Sacred & Sardinia Sunset finished first & second in a Newmarket maiden 16-days ago. The latter showed good speed that day and could reverse placings for the very much inform Roger Varian stable.
Sands Of Time showed plenty of speed from the gate when making all to win on the all-weather at Lingfield 13-days ago. Her dam Starlit Sands finished runner-up in this race in 2007.
Wesley Ward has won the race three times since 2009 and he saddles a couple of strong contenders in Campanelle & Royal Approval who finished first & second in a Gulfstream maiden on firm ground 20-days ago. The quicker the ground the better their chances with Campanelle the choice of Frankie Dettori.
Verdict: More Beautiful looked a smart filly when winning at Naas on her racecourse debut. Wesley Ward was unlucky not to win the Norfolk Stakes on Friday and his runner Campanelle could give the O’Brien filly a race.
1:50 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
This year’s Coventry looks the most competitive juvenile race at the meeting.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the race four times since 2011. He has the likely favourite in recent winner Admiral Nelson. The son of Kingman created a good impression with a decisive success on his racecourse debut at the Curragh 8-days ago. Today’s extra furlong will suit and if the quick turnaround doesn’t inconvenience the colt, he will be tough to beat.
Qaader tops the Racing Post Ratings for the race after an impressive win at Newbury 8-days ago. The third has come out and won since so the form looks solid. Trainer Mark Johnson has his juveniles in winning form and won the race in 2015.
Lauded was a good winner on his racecourse debut at Haydock (good to soft) and Al Shaqab Racing have subsequently bought into the colt. He looked professional at Haydock and shouldn’t be far away at the finish.
Creative Force & Dark Lion finished 1st & 4th in a 6f Newmarket maiden 16-days ago. Creative Force made all that day and looked fit physically & mentally ready to win that day and fully deserves to take his place in then line-up. Dark Lion also looked a nice colt that day and indeed was sent off the 2/1 favourite to make a winning debut. His inexperience showed when he ran green making his effort between the final two furlongs. He was doing his best work when the penny finally dropped in the final stages of the race. Has 3 ½ lengths to find with Creative Force but I would be surprised if the son of Dark Angel finished ahead of that rival today.
John Gosden doesn’t have too many juvenile runners at Royal Ascot but those he does run often go well. In the past ten years he’s had 5 winners from 15 runners 33% +26 A/E 2.31 6 placed 40%. He saddles two in Existent & Saeiqa. Existent is the choice of Frankie Dettori and is a well-bred son of Kingman who should be all the better for his recent promising third placed effort at Newmarket. Saeiqa also finished third on his debut one place ahead of Dark Lion at Newmarket. He’s capable of better although I think Dark Lion can finish in front of him today.
Verdict: Admiral Nelson looked a high-class juvenile when winning at the Curragh last week and will take plenty of beating. Qaader & Lauded look the best of the home team after their winning racecourse debuts. Dark Lion will improve for his debut run and could run into the places.
2:25 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) – 1m
The first of two cracking mile Group 1 contests for the classic generation. Seven fillies are set to go to post for the Coronation Stakes and you can give chances to six of them.
Quadrilateral, heads the market and the form of her 3rd in the English 1000 Guineas is strong. However, she needs to settle better than she did at Newmarket. If she does, she’s got a big chance of another Group 1 success.
Clock of Spirits finished one place ahead Quadrilateral, in the 1000 Guineas. She got the run of the race that day on the fair rail and I would be disappointed if she finishes ahead of her rival today.
Sharing comes over from the USA. The filly put in a career best effort when taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita and won her prep at Churchill Downs last month. Probably needs a sound surface and who knows how she will handle the track. Big chance though, if she gets her ground and Osin Murphy has been booked.
Run Wild ran away with the 1m 2f Pretty Polly Stakes on her seasonal reappearance. She’s clearly trained on from two to three and the drop back to a mile shouldn’t inconvenience her.
Frankie Dettori is on Irish raider Alpine Star whose half-sister Alpha Centauri won this for the yard in 2018.The filly doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run but there was plenty to like about her attitude in winning a Group 2 at the Curragh when last seen in action, had So Wonderful & Love behind her that day. She should improve plenty for the step up to a mile and is a big player.
Even nine race maiden So Wonderful can’t be ruled out, as she’s trained by Aidan O’Brien and finished third to a stablemate in last weeks Irish 1000 Guineas.
Verdict: The drying ground will help Sharing. Quadrilateral needs to settle better than she did in 1000 Guineas. Alpine Star looked a good filly when winning a Group 2 last summer and is a fascinating runner on her seasonal return.
3:00 – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts) – 1m
Wichita and Pinatubo finished second & third in the 2000 Guineas. Can Pinatubo return to something like his juvenile best? If he does, he would win this. However, I think Wichita has the more scope for progress, as 3-year-old, and can confirm form with Pinatubo. He does wasn’t good ground or quicker though.
Palace Pier is an intriguing runner. Twice a winner at Sandown as a 2-year-old he sidestepped the first colts classic and ran in a Newcastle handicap for his seasonal return. He was very impressive in victory. Three lengths behind the eventual runner-up coming to the furlong mark he quickened up in the style of a very smart colt to win by 3 ½ lengths at the line. The son of Kingman should come on a bundle for the run and I think he will make up into a Group 1 performer this season.
Of the rest Threat was a useful juvenile and connections opted to come rather than go for the 2000 Guineas. He finished runner-up in last years Coventry Stakes before going to win the Gimcrack & Champagne Stakes later in the season. Tough ask to win a race like this first time up but he shouldn’t be far away and should be a better horse at three.
Verdict: I think Wichita will confirm 2000 Guineas with Pinatubo. Palace Pier is the unknown quantity stepping out of handicap company but could turn out to be high class.
3:35 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 6f
I swerved my usual trends approach at this year’s meeting but this race does have some interesting ones.
Looking at the last eight running’s of the Diamond Jubilee – 8 winners from 118 runners 24 placed.
All eight winners were:
12/1 & under in the betting forecast and aged four to six.
8 winners from 37 runners +13.17 15 placed
Using those two filters leaves a shortlist of Sceptical, Hello Yomzain, Khaadem, One Master & Dream Of Dreams.
Sceptical is the short-priced favourite was a notable improver on the all-weather at Dundalk over the winter. The 4-year-old showed he was just as effective on the grass when easily winning a fast ground 5 ½ f Listed race at Naas 12-days ago. Big step up in class here but he looks a smart sprinter who will go on improving.
Hello Youmzain has the best form in the race, third in last years Commonwealth Cup over C&D he went on to win the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup (soft) on his next start in September although disappointed here on heavy in the Champions Sprint on Champions Day. Lightly raced he’s gone well fresh in the past and should continue his progress this season.
One Master finished runner-up in the Champions Sprint. Possibly better over 7f, twice a winner of the Group 1 Prix de la Foret on Arc Day and her stamina came into play here on Champions Day. but She has a potent turn of foot when produced to win her race at the right time. The softer the ground the better for the mare over 6f but she has no great record first time up.
Dream Of Dreams has been gelded since his last run when well beaten in the Champions Sprint. The 6-year-old was an improver in the first part of last season, putting a career best effort when beaten a head by Blue Point in this race 12 months ago. His form tailed off after that race but a reproduction of that run would make him tough beat today.
Khaadem looked a Group sprinter in the making when easily winning the competitive Goodwood Stewards Cup under a big weight last year. Sent off the 9/2 co-favourite for the Haydock Sprint Cup he ran poorly there and even worse in the Champions Sprint. If you forgive those efforts due to unsuitable ground, he doesn’t have much to find with the principals on his Stewards Cup success. Mind you he does needs good or quicker ground to be seen at his best.
Verdict: The drying ground has probably gone against One Master. Dream Of Dreams would go close if in the same form as he was in this 12 months ago. Sceptical could well improve past these but he’s plenty short enough on what he’s achieved so far. The drying ground will suit Khaadem and he’s a very interesting contender if reproducing his Stewards Cup form.
4:10 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
As with the consolation race it’s hard to say how the draw will pan out. However, most of the pace horses seem to be drawn low so it will probably pay to have at least one pick drawn low. However. I still want to keep onside one or two drawn nearer to the stands side.
One of my favourite sprint handicaps of the season and a race I have had plenty of success in the recent years, tipping three winners of the race since 2015. Most of the 23 runners have some sort of chance but the ones I like most are:
Bielsa (3) heads the ante post betting. A likeable and progressive sprint handicapper last season. He’s only had the five career starts winning four of them. Goes well fresh, three of his wins have come off 100+day layoff and been purchased to run in the colours of King Power Racing. Looks like he could make up into a Group performer this year.
Highland Dress (17) is a rapidly improving 4-year-old handicap sprinter who comes into the race looking for a hat trick, after wins at Southwell and Newmarket (good to firm) 15-days ago. Now 6lb higher than at Newmarket but is going the right way. The better the ground the better his chance!
Tinto (11) won over C&D last October and put in a career best when winning at Newmarket 15-days ago. Raised 5lb for that success but the weight rise is negated by the booking of a useful 5lb claimer. Not without a chance given his present form and versatility ground wise.
Silent Echo (6) comes into the race in great heart having won at Newmarket 15-days ago. He’s been nudged up 4lb for that win but it’s worth remembering he was 2 ½ length, 5th of 28 in this race in 2018 and can race off 2lb lower today.
Lethal Lunch, (22) trained by Clive Cox, last four career wins have come over 7f but he put in a career best effort over 6f when runner-up to Harry’s Bar at Kempton in December, Silent Echo back in third. He was also making his effort when hampered a furlong out in a C&D handicap won by Swindler back in September. Needs a fast pace to be seen at his best which he should get but he also probably needs quicker ground which he might not get.
Angel Alexander (23) won the Ayr Gold Cup last year, off 4lb lower. Not so good in Group/Listed company in Meydan over the winter. Needs to find bit more improvement to win this but at least we know he goes well in a big field and he can’t be totally ruled out.
David O’Meara saddles three and Gulliver (20) is the one I like most. The 6-year-old put in a career best effort on turf when winning a big field handicap at York last October, off 2lb lower. Bettered that effort on Southwell in January. He seems versatile going wise won on soft & good to firm in 2019. Finished well behind Tinto at Newmarket but it was his first run for 90-days and he should strip fitter today. Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking.
Recon Mission (5) looks handicapped to win a sprint handicap this season. The 4-year-old won a valuable York sprint handicap 12 months ago (good to soft). He also ran just as well when 4th of 10 here over 5f at the Shergar Cup. Beaten less than length that day he can race off 4lb lower now. Finished two places ahead of Gulliver in the Tinto race at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance. He’s another who will be sharper for the run and a bit of ease does suit him well so he wouldn’t want the ground to get to quick. Might find stronger finishers over Ascot’s 6f but has a chance.
Stone Of Destiny (4) is 0 wins from 3 runs over C&D but wasn’t disgraced in this race 12 months ago. He was beaten just under six lengths but should have finished closer as he didn’t get the clearest runs between the final two furlongs. Did go onto win here over 5f at the Shergar Cup off today’s mark. He made an encouraging return to action when 4th of 12 at Newmarket two weeks ago. The 5-year-old is hard to win with but is talented enough and on back down to a winnable mark. Ff he gets luck in the run could get into the places on a track that suits.
Verdict: I have plenty on the shortlist. Bielsa could prove to be ahead of his mark but does need to have improved over the winter. Highland Dress is a handicap sprinter on the upgrade. If they go hard up-front Lethal Lunch should be finishing his race off strongly. Gulliver likes a big field and should be thereabouts. Recon Mission is on an attractive mark but the stiff finish could find him out. Stone Of Destiny has dropped back to his last winning mark and can run a big race on a track that suits.
4:40 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f
The traditional final race of the Royal meeting One of the longest races in the flat racing calendar. A historic race, for sure, but one that now seems strangely out of place. It can attract a big field of runners although just 11 have been declared for this year’s renewal. There can be plenty of dead wood in the race as connections often like to have a runner at Royal Ascot.
It’s another race I have looked at the trends for away in.
Looking at the last eight running’s of the race – which contain -8 winners from 121 runners 24 placed
All eight were 12/1 & under in the betting forecast and had run in at Group/Grade 1 or Group/Grade 2 on the flat or over jumps.
8 winners from 40 runners +16.5 16 placed.
There are just four qualifiers: Mekong, Who Dares Wins, Nate The Great & Fun Mac.
Nate The Great is a 4-year-old and you have to go back to 2008 for the last winner from that age group. Made a satisfactory return to action on his first start since leaving Archie Watson and gelding when operation when 3rd of 8 at Newmarket over 1m 4f. May stay this marathon trip and trainer Andrew Balding has a good record in the racing winning it twice since 2013 and also the third home (also a 4-year-old) in 2018.
The picks on ability are Mekong & Who Dares Wins. The first named was well down the field in the Gold Cup on Thursday but this is calmer waters and he’s the best horse on official ratings and should stay.
Who Dares Wins is an excellent dual-purpose horse. The 8-year-old won over fences at Kempton in February but was also quick enough to win the 2m Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last June. Stays really well and is more consistent than the talented but quirky Mekong. Trainer has had two winners at the meeting already and looks to have a great chance of third.
Verdict: Nate The Great given his trainers record in the race. Who Dares Wins has guaranteed stamina and has leading claims for a stable in the winners at the Royal meeting.
Cheers
John