Hi all,
Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 2
At the time of writing the forecast heavy rain has hit the course and it looks like it will be soft all over on Day 1. The weather is set to be mostly dry Tuesday evening/night and through Wednesday although there could be some isolated heavy showers during the day.
1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham) – 2m 5f
A field of 16 are declared to go to post for this year’s race.
Looking at the key trends. Ten of the last eleven winners of the race, or 91% of the winners from 24% of the total runners, had the following traits:
Age: 5yo or 6yo
Odds SP: 8/1 & under
There are two qualifiers using the above trends Battleoverdoyen and City Island.
Battleoverdoyen is trained by Gordon Elliott, who won last years race with Samcro. The 5-year-old has won both his starts over hurdles and is unbeaten under rules, He’s not as flashy as Samcro but he has a good attitude and the more of a stamina test the better. Yet to race on soft ground but he could improve for it. Solid market leader for me.
The best of the British is Champ, trained by Nicky Henderson. He’s unbeaten in his last four starts over hurdles but probably doesn’t have the improvement of the Elliott horse.
City Island is the one I have fancied for some time. I advised him ante post at 12/1 in my Monday Daily Punt column last month. Owned by the sponsors the 6-year-old has finished first past the post on all three of his starts over hurdles. Open to further progress and if he was trained by Mullins or Elliott he would be half his present odds.
Gordon Elliott also saddles the unbeaten Galvin who has the potential to progress further for the step up to 2m 5f. Plenty to find on form but if the distance move unlocks more, improvement, he has each way claims.
Verdict: Galvin is a potential improverstepped up in trip.His stablemate Battleoverdoyen has a favourites chance But I am happy to stick with long time ante-post selection City Island.
City Island – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:10 – RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Looking at the key trends for the race. All of the last eleven winners of the race or 100% of the winners from 28% of the total runners shared the following traits:
Odds SP: 16/1 & under
Last Time Out Placing: Top three
Highest Class Run: Grade 1 or Grade 2
Runs In Season: 3 to 5
Only ante-post favourite Delta Work meets all the above trends. The 6-year-old has won all three of his starts over fences and two starts back had the pace beat Le Richebourg at Fairyhouse over 2m 4f. Stepped up to 3m to win the Grade 1 novices’ chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. No issues with the track for him either as he won the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle on soft ground at last years festival. It will take a good one to lower his colours.
Topofthegame and Santini will clearly provide the favourite with a stern test and look the best of the home contingent. The former was an eyecatcher after his chase debut at Ascot. His sire Flemensfirth has a poor record her at Cheltenham but Topofthegame was runner-up in last years Coral Cup so he handles the track.
Of those at a bigger price Drovers Lane trained by Rebecca Curtis could run into the places if he handles the soft ground. #
Topofthegame – 7/2 – Gen
2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 5f
The first of the day’s handicaps and a maximum field of 26 are set to go to post for what is a tricky puzzle to unravel.
Starting with key trends. Eight of the last 11 winners, or 72% of the winners from 25% of the total runners shared the following:
Odds SP: 12/1 to 33/1
Best In Three Runs: 1st
Distance Move: Not Dropping down
Handicap Hurdle Wins: 0 to 2
Using the above trends as guide there are four runners who meet all those trends: Vision Des Flos, Highest Sun, Ballyandy and Scarpeta.
Of the rest a runner who fails one trend – as he hasn’t won in his last three starts is last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Farclas. The step up to 2m 5f should suit the 5-year-old who will appreciate the softer ground. If he bounces back to last year’s best, would have a good chance.
William Henry has had a wind op since pulling up at Wincanton on Boxing Day. The 9-year-old was 4th in this race last year off the same mark and must be respected.
Killultagh Vic, wonthe Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at 2015 Festival. The 9-year-old hasn’t totally convinced over fences, despite winning twice. Is on a very tempting handicap mark returning to hurdles and he was a 1 ½ length 3rd to Presenting Percy in the Galmoy Hurdle two starts back.
He’s one of six runners from the Willie Mullins stable including ante-post favourite Uradel and Scarpeta. The latter gets the first time cheekpieces and was 4th to Samcro in in last year’s Ballymore Hurdle. If he jumps better then he’s a strong contender on ability.
Joke Dancer, trained by Sue Smith, showed the benefit of wind-op when winning at Newcastle on his seasonal reappearance 18 days ago. Up 5lb in a much deeper race with stamina to prove. That said he’s a potential improver and is 4 from 8 over hurdles.
Verdict: I get the feeling Farclas will bounce back sooner rather than later over this longer distance but I am happy to go with two of the Willie Mullins team in Killultagh Vic & Scarpeta.
Killultagh Vic – 16/1 @ Coral (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)
Scarpeta – 22/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)
3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
Eight rivals take on Altior in the feature race of Day 2 of the Festival
Despite the soft ground surely Altior won’t be beaten here and I would argue that 2/5 is a value bet, given he would be a 1/4 or 2/9 on my tissue for the race.
If you were looking for one to run into the places at big odds, I suppose you could do a lot worse than look at the Harry Fry trained Hell’s Kitchen. I am totally convinced Cheltenham is his track but he’s the sort who could out run his odds.
4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (Class 2) – 3m 6f
Like the previous race not one, I will probably get involved in. Last years winner and Grand National hero Tiger Roll is short odds to win this again.
French trained, Urgent De Gregaine was runner-up to Tiger Roll last year and has solid place claims again. At even bigger odds you couldn’t rule out a big run from another French trained runner Amazing Comedy who really relishes soft ground, indeed the softer the better for the 9-year-old.
4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
Not surprisingly a maximum field off 22 are set to go to post for the juvenile handicap hurdle. A new relatively new race to the meeting being first run in 2005.
Looking at the trends for some clues. Nine of the last eleven winners of the race or 82% of the winners from just 19% of the total runners shared the following:
Official Rating: 125 to 134
Best In Three Runs: 1st
Last Race Non-handicap
Days Since Last Run: 11 to 60
Last Time Out Placing: Not 2nd or 3rd
Using the above trends two runners qualify Star Max & Prabeni. Belargus, is also a qualifier but he’s only second reserve.
Of the rest the well backed ante-post favourite Band Of Outlaws could be a well handicapped juvenile who for me would have gone close in the Triumph Hurdle but will the rain softened ground find him out stamina wise. If not, he’s handicapped to win.
Praeceps was third to the impressive Fusil Raffles in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. He gets the blinkers on for the first time over hurdles, but he won in the headgear on the flat. Looked in need of more of stamina test at Kempton but soft ground would be an unknown.
I’m a fan of Fanfan De Seuil, trained by Tom George, the juvenile is one of the least experienced runners in the field but that also means he’s open to a more improvement than most. He fell when well fancied on his UK debut at Chepstow but went on to win at Exeter on his next start when still running green. Before finishing runner-up, giving away 3lb, here back in December. He was an eyecatcher after that run.
Not been out since but the trainer’s runners went well on Day 1 which is a positive. A mark of 136 doesn’t look particularly lenient for his handicap debut but if he improves, he can get into the money.
Gordon Elliott runs Lethal Steps, Coko Beach & Chief Justice. The first named looks the more interesting of the three. Useful on the flat over a mile. He’s run with promise on his last two starts over hurdles and the drop back in distance from last time looks a good one. The first time cheekpieces are interesting addition. Coko Beach will do well to reverse form with Band Of Outlaws on their running at Naas but a stronger stamina test will suit him on the evidence of that run.
Of the two trends qualifiers Prabeni has won his last two races but soft ground would be worry for him. Star Max, twice a winner on the flat when trained in Germany. Like Band Of Outlaws he’s trained by Joseph O’Brien. He makes his handicap debut after three runs over hurdles, showing a good attitude when beating 19 rivals at Gowran Park 25-days ago. The big field won’t be a problem for him and he’s going the right way.
French raider Naturelle is an intriguing runner she made it 2 from 4 over hurdles when landing a listed race last month. She could be very well handicapped or very badly handicapped off a mark of 138? At the prices it could be worth risking that filly is former rather than the latter.
Verdict: A very tough race where you can pick three and not get any of them in the frame. Star Max has each way claims. Naturelle looks worth chancing that the British handicapper has got her mark wrong. Whilst I think we can see a big run from Fanfan De Seuil.
Naturelle – 20/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Star Max – 16/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Fanfan De Seuil – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
A smaller field than normal for this years Champion Bumper with just the 14 set to go to post. It’s not a race I will go into from a trend’s perspective.
The Gordon Elliott trained Envoi Allen set the standard on form and has won all his three bumper starts. He’s not been flashy in his wins but he’s a tough sort and is the one they all must beat. Meticulous was third to Elliott horse in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown and could get closer to his old rival granted a better gallop.
The 4-year-old Blue Sari, the ante post favourite, was an easy winner on soft ground at Gowran Park on his racecourse debut back in January. Has subsequently been purchased by JP McManus and given he’s trained by Willie Mullins must be respected. Priced up on reputation and connections rather than what he’s achieved on the track compared to Envoi Allen.
At bigger odds Thyme Hill could go well. The Philip Hobbs trained 5-year-old made a winning racecourse debut at Worcester back in October before finishing runner-up in a Listed bumper here the following month. Soft ground would be an unknown for the gelding and his full sister seemed to prefer a sounder surface. His sire Kayf Tara has an excellent record with his progeny at the track in NHF races with 4 winners from 13 runners 31% +12.88 7 placed 54% since the start of 2015. He could repay each way support if he’s effective on the rain softened ground.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Good luck with your bets.
Cheers
John