Hi all,
What do we make of Royal Ascot so far? The racing has been good, albeit the winners are missing out on that vital ingredient that makes Royal Ascot what it is, the celebration of a big crowd. Wednesday afternoon at Wolverhampton doesn’t need a crowd. The likes of Royal Ascot and the upcoming Epsom Derby.
On the punting front I’m shortlisting most of the winners in the race previews but not selecting them. Still we have three days to pull things around.
Themaxwecan managed to get into the frame to land an each-way punt in the last yesterday but apart from that it was slim pickings.
Royal Ascot – Day 3
The Thundery showers didn’t materialise as I hoped on Wednesday although it looks like the track will see more overnight and in the morning. There has been a notable draw bias in the big field races on the straight track with those stands side having a big advantage. It will be interesting to see if the Ascot Clerk waters the stands side overnight to level things out. If he doesn’t and your horse is drawn low you might as well tear up your ticket on the evidence of the first two days, especially if the forecast rain doesn’t arrive.
Anyway, onto day three and the feature race is the Ascot Gold Cup. Like the previous two days I will go through each of the seven races.
1:15 – Golden Gates Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Acquitted, looks a colt worth following this season. A winner twice as a juvenile. He made an excellent return to action when runner up to the potentially smart Palace Pier at Newcastle 12 days ago. Hey may turn out to be the best horse in the race but stall 15 isn’t ideal over the 1m 2f distance.
Hypothetical an easy winner on his only start last season,was a well backed into favouritism for his seasonal return in the Classic Trial at Kempton. He travelled well for a long way before eventually finishing 4th. Should be all the better for that run and on a workable mark for handicap debut.
Maori Knight a winner at Chelmsford in February, improved for the return to turf when runner up at Haydock 11 days ago. Up in class in a better race but looks to have a nice weight and can race off the same mark as last time.
Verdict: The draw puts me slightly offAcquitted and at the prices I just side with Maori Knight who looks on a winnable handicap mark.
1pt Win – Maori Knight – 9/1 @ Paddy Power
1:50 – Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 1m 2f
Sir Dragonet looked a smart colt in the making when winning the Chester Vase last May. The colt was then sent off the 11/4 favourite for the Derby and given his relative inexperience did well to get as close as he did in 5th. Probably didn’t stay 1m 6f when only 4th in the St Leger. Remains capable of better as 4-year-old and really needs to win this to put his career back on track.
Verdict: This looks a good opportunity for Sir Dragonet to start to fulfil last years promise.
2:25 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Monarch Of Egypt was a useful juvenile but didn’t get any sort of run behind a wall of horses when 7th in the Irish 2000 Guineas 6-days ago. Drops in both in class and distance and provided this race doesn’t come to quick after his Guineas run can go close.
Runners in the Jersey Stakes that had previously run in a Group 1 race that season have done well in the race with – 6 winners from 31 runners +33 10 placed in the past ten years.
Like Monarch Of Egypt. Final Song comes into the race after finishing 4th of 15 behind Love in the English 1000 Guineas. The drop back to 7f should suit the filly and she should be in the mix.
Another runner dropping back from Group 1 company is French challenger Celestin who was a close 4th in the French 2000 Guineas. The colt should appreciate the drop back to 7f. A winner on heavy so rain won’t be an issue either.
None of those horses heads the ante post betting for the race that honour goes to the unbeaten King Leonidas. The son of Kingman won his only juvenile start and returned to action with an easy win in a Newmarket novice under his 7lb penalty. Looked a Group horse in the making that day and he shouldn’t have a problem with the drop back to 7f.
Molatham did well as a 2-year-old, 2 from 2 over 7f and quick ground, including a good win over recent 2000 Guineas runner-up Wichita at Doncaster. Looked to find a mile on soft ground to far when only 4th in a Group 3 at Newmarket in October. Big chance on his return if he gets decent ground.
Verdict: Molatham needs good or quicker ground to be at his best. No issues with rain softened ground for French raider Celestin who bring classic form to the race. As does Monarch Of Egypt who ran an eyecatching race in the Irish 2000 Guineas and should be suited to the drop back to 7f.
3:00 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 7f
The Aidan O’Brien trained Battleground raced a shade green in the early stages of his racecourse debut at Naas 10 days. However, he was stayed on nicely enough to finish 5th under a fairly easy ride. The colt should come on plenty for that run and is bred to improve for the step up to 7f.
Modern News won a Newmarket maiden on his racecourse debut 11 days ago. Looked a smart colt that day and is another who should appreciate today’s extra furlong.
Golden Flame, trained by Mark Johnston, shaped with plenty of promise when runner-up at Haydock on his racecourse debut. The son of Golden Horn will improve for his first start and today’s stiffer track will suit him better than Haydock.
First Prophet made a winning racecourse debut at Newbury 6-days ago showing a good turn of foot to win despite greenness. Any further easing of the ground won’t inconvenience the colt. Granted a quick return to action for the colt but if he handles it won’t be far away at the finish.
Andrew Balding had a juvenile winner here yesterday so his runner Bright Devil, a winner at Newmarket 14-days ago, needs respecting.
Verdict: Modern News created a good impression when winning at Newmarket. Interesting that Aidan O’Brien brings Battleground over for the race. First Prophet could run a big race and unlike the first two named won’t have any problem with wet ground.
3:35 – Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 2m 4f
Not much needs to be said about Stradivarius who bids for a hat trick of Ascot Gold Cup wins. If he gets a decent ground, he should be able to pull it off.
Nayef Road is an improving 4-year old who won the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle on his seasonal return. He’s unexposed as a stayer and has place claims.
Technician is 4 wins from 4 runs when soft or heavy is in the going description, winning a Group 1 at Longchamp on his final start of 2019. Capable of giving the favourite a race if the rain arrives to ease the ground significantly.
Verdict: Stradivarius should make it a hat trick of wins but if the rain arrives, it brings the unexposed stayer Technician right into the mix.
1pt win – Technician – 9/2 @ Bet365
4:10 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 2) – 1m
Will a high draw continue to be a major positive as it has been on the straight course on the first two days of the meeting?
Finest Sound has clearly improvedfor gelding and wind operations as he showed when making a winning seasonal reappearance, on his handicap debut, at Haydock 10 days ago. The 3-year-old has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but remains the one they all have to beat from stall 17. Stable won this race in 2018.
Starcat looked good when winning on his racecourse debut at Kempton back in December. The colt was thrown in the deep end for his seasonal return in the 2000 Guineas and wasn’t disgraced in finishing 7th. Clearly has plenty of ability and is interesting on his handicap debut, albeit stall 1 could be a big hindrance to his chance. Trainer Hughie Morrison trained the 2011 winner.
Khaloosy built on the promise of his racecourse debut when easily winning a Wolverhampton novice 208-days ago. Handicap debut and first run on turf for the son of Dubawi but a mark of 94 could seriously underestimate the colt.
John Gosden saddles four of the 24 runners. His best two chances appear to be Enemy, a winner of a 7f Ascot maiden on his racecourse debut last September. Could only finish second when sent off an odds-on favourite for his seasonal reappearance at Yarmouth. There will be more to come from him stepping up to a mile. The other Gosden horse I like is Verboten who won first time up as a juvenile before being upped to Group 1 company for the Futurity. Not surprisingly found that that class to much on just his second career start. Had a wide draw when 4th of 11 on handicap debut at Lingfield 13-days ago. Found the 7f to short that day but was doing his best work at the finish. The return to a mile and a stiffer track should suit the colt.
One place in front of Verboten at Lingfield was Grove Ferry. A winner of two of his three starts last year. The son of Excelebration was having his first start since a gelding operation and shaped with encouragement. He’s another who can go well and could be well drawn in stall 24.
Verdict: Finest Sound will be hard to beat even under a 5lb penalty but he may find the lightly raced Khaloosy to classy at the finish.
1pt win – Khaloosy – 8/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Grove Ferry – 20/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
4:40 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) – 1m
Another big field handicap on the straight course concludes day three of the meeting.
African Dream a winner at Lingfield on her second start in March. Improved on that performance when runner up at Newbury 7 days ago. Looks the proverbial blot on the handicap, if able to reproduce her Newbury run. Her chance has been lost on the bookies as she’s a very short price for what is normally a competitive handicap.
Soffika a winner on her racecourse debut at Pontefract last year before finishing runner-up in a Group 3 on her next start. Not seen out since August but she bred to do better at three and improve for a mile. More than capable of going close on her handicap debut.
Declared Interest made a winning return to action on her handicap debut at Chelmsford nine days. Has 5lb penalty to carry here but the handicapper has raised her 9lb for that win so she’s theoretically 4lb well in compared to future races.
Waliyak, trained by Roger Varian,got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Wolverhampton novice in November. Looks on a a competitive mark for her handicap debut off a mark of 84 and seems the type to improve further as a 3-year-old.
Verdict: African Dream looks a handicap good thing but her Newbury run was just a week ago. At the prices going to take a chance with Soffika.
1pt win – Soffika – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes
Cheers
John