Hi all,
Two months ago, it didn’t seem likely we would see Royal Ascot going off at its usual date in the calendar. Yet just two weeks after the resumption of British racing here it is. Settle back and enjoy 36 races – 6 more than normal – over five days. No Queen, no fashion its going to be all about the horses and what they do on the track.
The weather is set to be warm with some sunshine but also the likelihood of heavy thundery showers. As ever with showers they may arrive and they may not. It will pay to keep an eye on the weather radar for latest updates form the track as the going could change quickly.
Day 1 gets underway at 1:15. This year its not the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes that opens the card but the return of the Buckingham Palace Handicap over 7f. The race was hasn’t been run at Royal Ascot since 2014 and in my opinion, it makes a welcome return to the meeting.
I have had the chance to go through all seven races on the card although there are only four races I have selections in.
Royal Ascot – Day 1
1:15 – Buckingham Palace Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
A field of 24 are set to go post for this 7f handicap. There looks to be a slight bias middle to high in big field handicaps over 7f (16 to 24 runners) but I wouldn’t put be put off a horse drawn low if I really fancied it.
Recent impressive Newcastle winner Daarik heads the ante post betting. He’s sure to be popular with punters as he hails from the John Gosden stable and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. Has to be high on the shortlist if he replicates his much-improved all-weather form to turf.
Mutamaasik is another progressive 4-year-old. He’s just had the five career starts winning the last four. Just 3lb higher than for the last of those wins and can go close for the inform Roger Varian stable.
Good form in big field handicaps on Ascot’s straight course is usually a positive. That brings Cliffs Of Capri and Kaeso into the mix.
Cliffs Of Capri, a winner over a mile at Meydan two start back. The 6-year-old showed he remains in good form when chasing home an all the way winner at Newmarket 12-days ago. Nudged up 2lb but he looks to have a good draw on the stands side and he’s 2 wins from 4 runs over C&D. Trainer Jamie Osborne trained the 2010 winner and has a great record with his handicappers at the track – 12 winners from 50 runners 24% +69.25 A/E 2.7 19 placed 38%.
Kaeso finished 3rd of 26 to Cape Byron over C&D last May and was beaten just a head by Raising Sand in the International Stakes again over C&D, in July, off 4lb lower. The 6-year-old was well down the field behind Daarik on his return to action but will strip fitter today and Osin Murphy is an eye caching jockey booking. More rain wouldn’t be an inconvenience either.
Verdict: Cliffs Of Capri has a sound chance on C&D that suits. Daarik is 7lb higher than when winning at Newcastle on his return 10-days ago. I doubt 7lb would have stopped him that day. If he replicates his improved all-weather on turf, he should go close.
1pt win – Daarik – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Cliffs Of Capri – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:50 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 1m
The race that normally get the Royal Meeting underway. This year’s renewal has a attracted a big field of 16 runners. There have been stronger renewals of the race but it still a competitive race. On the straight mile in a big field it often pays to be ridden in midfield or held up.
Last year’s St James’ Palace winner Circus Maximus heads the ante post betting. Double Group 1 winner he’s the class horse of the race but maybe the straight mile won’t play to his strengths nor will drying ground.
Next in the betting is improving filly Terrebellum. She has race fitness on her side having won the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket 10-days ago. Drop back to a mile shouldn’t be a problem as she doesn’t lack pace. Lightly raced, she’s going the right way and should improve further on her Newmarket run. Deserves another chance in Group 1 company.
Mustashry won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes last season not so good when only 7th in this race 12 months ago. The 7-year-old heads the official ratings and can’t be ruled out but he’s vulnerable yo younger legs.
At bigger prices two who could outrun their odds
Turjomaan, a big long striding colt who should be suited by the stiff straight mile, was first the past the post here over 7f on his juvenile debut. He’s only had the four career starts, winning two both at Newcastle, and ended last season finishing runner-up to Duke Of Hazzard at Goodwood. Has only ½ length to find with that improver and can go well at a price.
Billesdon Brook will strip for her recent Kempton run. The harder they go up front the better the mare is. The surprise 2018, 1000 Guineas winner showed she hasn’t lost he ability when the race is run to suit when winning the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket last October. Tougher against the colts & geldings but has each way claims in a strongly run race.
Verdict: It’s looks a good race. Of the front two in the betting I prefer the claims of the progressive filly Terrebellum. Turjomaan and Billesdon Brook can get into the money.
2:25 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2f
Eleven 3-year-old fillies are set to meet the starter. This race normally attracts fillies who have finished down the field in the Oaks. However, this year it’s more of a Trial for the Epsom fillies’ classic. Impressive Newcastle winner Frankly Darling bids to enhance her Oaks claims here and she will be a short price. Needs to have improved plenty but the daughter of Frankel seems likely to do so. Her trainer John Gosden has won two of the last three running’s of the Ribblesdale.
Trefoil won a Newmarket maiden on her racecourse debut last October. Showed she had trained on from two to three when keeping on to finish third in the Pretty Polly Stakes 9-days ago. The step up to 1m 4f should suit.
Aidan O’Brien’s Passion has come in for support in recent days. The daughter of Galileo was 4th in the Listed Salsabil Stakes at Navan just six days ago. Bred for 1m 4f, she has the potential to improve for today’s step up in distance. Given her powerful connections has to be respected if this race doesn’t come to soon.
Verdict: It could be a good afternoon for John Gosden & Frankie Dettori and Frankly Darling look set to enhance her Oaks claims with a win. Trefoil could take advantage should the favourite fail to fire.
1pt win – Trefoil – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Like the Ribblesdale this has more of a Derby Trial feel. Sadly, the race has only attracted six runners.
Aidan O’Brien sends over two. Mogul, a best priced 8/1 for the Derby, is odds on favourite. A Group 2 winner at Leopardstown he ended last season finishing 4th of 11 to Kameko in the Futurity. Has the form in the book and is bred to improve for middle distances.
The other O’Brien runner Arthur’s Kingdom won a Gowran Park maiden before finishing second in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Like his stablemate, the son of Camelot has the pedigree to improve as 3-year-old for this sort of trip. If he’s not being used as a pacemaker for his stablemate then I can see him going well.
The Andrew Balding trained Papa Power has won his last two starts on the all-weather at Chelmsford and latterly Newcastle. The son of Nathanial has a bit to find on RPR’s with the O’Brien pair but he’s going the right way and worth his chance in this grade. He made all to win both races and if he gets an uncontested lead may be hard to pass in Ascot’s short straight.
Verdict: Aidan 0’Brien looks to have a strong hand with favourite Mogul and Arthur’s Kingdom. At the prices I just prefer the claims of the latter.
1pt win – Arthur’s Kingdom – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – King Stand Stakes (Group 1) – 5f
The second Group 1 on the card. Ten runners take on hot favourite Battaash. The favourite is well ahead of his rivals on Official Ratings. Yet to win on his three starts at the track but has finished runner-up in this race for the last seasons. No issues with his fitness and must have a great chance of making it third time lucky.
His stablemate Equilateral could get into the places. He also looks at his best fresh and can get close to this stablemate than 12 months ago.
Glass Slippers improved for the drop back to 5f when winning a Group 3 at Longchamp and improving further to land the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye on her final start, Battaash a well beaten 14th. The going was very soft that day which wouldn’t have suited Battaash and he was drawn out wide. Glass Slippers has winning form on quick ground but whether she can match Battaash at his best his doubtful.
Liberty Beach was 4th to Raffle Prize in last years Queen Mary before going onto win a Sandown Listed race and the Group 3 Molecombe Stakes at ‘Glorious’ Goodwood. Ended last season finishing runner-up in the Lowther Stakes at York.
The 4-year-old Kurious was 5th in the 2018 Queen Mary. Only ran four times as 3-year-old, winning a Listed race and a Group 3 race both over 5f at Sandown. A speedy filly she might prefer easier ground in this company. Like Liberty Beach she’s got each way claims especially if showers arrive.
Verdict: Battaash can make it third time lucky if the ground is on the fast side of good. Stablemate Equilateral is at his best fresh and should run better in this than he did 12 months ago. If the showers arrive and the going eases again Kurious would have an each-way chance
4:10 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Eleven have been declared for what looks a competitive renewal of this fillies’ only race. Jubiloso ran really well to finish third in last year’s Coronation Stakes and then occupied the same position behind Billesdon Brook at Goodwood back down to 7f. Ran well below par when sent off odds on for a Group 3 at Sandown when last seen in action. Type to do well as a 4-year-old but questions to answer. Nazeef improved to win her last three starts in 2019. Showed she had trained on and improved as a 4-year-old when touching off Billesdon Brook in the Snowdrop Stakes 13-days ago. Has 5lb to find with Jubiloso on OR’s but she’s more reliable and looks a good prospect. French trained horses have won this race twice in the past four years so Wasmya has to be respected for that reason alone. Miss O’Connor would be a major player on softer ground. The quicker the ground the better the chance of Lavender’s Blue who impressed when winning the Sandown Group 3 in which Jubiloso ran well below par. Queen Power’s stablemate of Jubiloso made a solid reappearance when runner-up to Terrebellum at Newmarket. Not sure about the drop back to a mile but if they go a decent gallop it will help her settle better.
Verdict: Nazeef is an exciting prospect and I just prefer her to Jubiloso who ended last season with a poor run at Sandown. There’s no doubt Queen’s Power is capable of winning a race like this when everything falls right and could finish ahead of her better fancied stablemate today.
4:40 – Ascot Stakes (A Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 4f
Verdana Blue heads the betting although she’s been a shade weak in the betting after the Ascot ground eased in recent days. A high-class hurdler on good or quicker ground with a good turn of foot. She only had the four starts on the level winning at Chelmsford and wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 7 in last season’s Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at the track. Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride and given the mare is rated 160 over hurdles she looks well in even off top-weight if the ground continues to dry out.
Moon King looked to improve for the step up 2m when winning at Haydock 8-days ago. Has a 3lb penalty to carry for that success but is unexposed over staying trips. Best form has arguably come on softer going but if the showers arrive and the ground eases, I would prefer him to Verdana Blue.
Rochester House was ¾ length third to Moon King at Haydock. Get’s 3lb today and there shouldn’t be much between the pair. Stays 2m well and could improve for today’s extra four furlongs with Silvestre De Sousa booked.
Summer Moon a stablemate of Rochester House showed he was a stayer when 3rd of 30 in last year’s Cesarewitch. Up 5lb and has been gelded over the winter. Appeals as the type to improve as a 4-year-old. Seasonal reappearance but can go well if fit enough.
Verdict: I’m very keen on the chances of Verdana Blue as long as the heavy showers stay away from Ascot. Any ease in the ground would help the consistent Moon King. Rochester House looks overpriced on his running behind Moon King at Haydock and has each way claims, Stablemate Summer Moon is a big danger on his first run for 235-days.
1pt win – Verdana Blue – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Rochester House – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes ( Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John