Hi all,
Well the Cheltenham Festival is finally here. The months of waiting have come to an end. The “Greatest Show On Earth” well in terms of horse racing anyway, begins at 1:30 when the tapes go up for the start of the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Just to let you know. There won’t be a Horses To Follow post on Thursday as I will be concentrating on Cheltenham from now until Friday. Normal service in terms of the eyecatchers will return a week on Thursday.
As a point of information, I won’t be looking at every race each day in these daily notebooks because there are some races that really don’t interest me. I will also look at some races in more detail than others. It’s likely this post will be the longest of the next four days due to time constraints as the action gets underway.
Without further ado, lets gets started.
Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 1
The meeting looks set to start on good to soft at best and if the forecast rain arrives it could well be soft. I am going in with plenty of bets today.
1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
I am more of a handicap than a non-handicap punter, but I do take an interest in races like this at Cheltenham Festival.
A field of 18 have been declared to go to post for this year’s renewal.
Looking at the trends: Nine of the last eleven winners, or 83% of the winners from 23% of the total runners had the following traits:
Top Six in Betting
Winner Last Race
Season Runs: 2 to 5
That leaves a shortlist of Al Dancer, Fakir D’oudairies, Klassical Dream, Elixier De Nutz & Mister Fisher.
I doubt this is a vintage Supreme, but I still expect the winner to come from the above five runners.
Verdict: Klassical Dream ticks the above trends boxes. The 5-year-old may not be as good as some of his trainer’s previous winner of the race. But he’s unbeaten on both his starts since coming over from France and showed a good battling attitude on the run-in in the Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown last month. I can see Mister Fisher, a Stablemate of Angel’s Breath, the 5-year-old has won both his last two starts over hurdles, including a Grade 2 at Haydock 52-days ago. He needs to improve on that here, but he’s only had three starts over hurdles so that’s possible. Both his wins have come on flat tracks, so Cheltenham is a bit of an unknown. If he handles the course, he could run into the places.
Klassical Dream -9/2 @ William Hill & Coral
Mister Fisher – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
A field of 12 have been declared to go to post for this year’s race. A bit like the previous race. Not my favourite type of contest. Once again narrowing the race down to a few key trends.
Ten of the last eleven winners of the Arkle Novices’ Chase or 91% of the winners from 38% of the total runners had the following traits:
Horses Age: 6yo to 7yo
Chase Runs: 1 to 4
Days Since Last Run: 16 to 75
Last Time Out Placing: First or Second
Using the above trends, the horses I would be concentrating on are Glen Forza, Duc Des Genievres, Paloma Blue, Kalashnikov & Clondaw Castle.
Verdict: Of the trend’s horses Paloma Blue is a classy horse but his jumping since going chasing has been slightly disappointing. At least he did win a decent looking beginners’ chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Henry De Bromhead is a trainer capable of ironing out the 7-year-old’s jumping issues. If his jumping holds up, he can go well. Gordon Elliott has just the one representative Hardline. The 7-year-old is 3 wins from 5 starts since going over fences. The drop back to anticipated strongly run 2m will suit, as will rain softened ground and he need respecting. Gordon Elliott has a good record when he has just the one runner in a non-handicap race at the Festival – 16 winners from 53 runners 30% +115.98 27 placed 51%.
Hardline – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f
This is more like it the first of today’s two handicaps. A maximum field of 24 are set to go to post for the race.
There are four recent eyecatchers running in this year’s renewal. Before I look at those runners. Let’s focus on some of the key race trends:
Not a bad race for trends fans. Ten of the last eleven winners or 91% of the winners from 28% of the total runners of the Ultima had the following traits:
Days Since Last Run: 16 to 45
Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 1
Runs At The Track: 1+
Distance Move: Up from last race.
Backing all such qualifiers would have seen a +74 profit to SP and +95.28 to Betfair SP. For each way punters the profit would have been +102.50.
There are just two qualifiers using the above trends Minella Rocco and Activial.
It’s not often that a 24-runner handicap is reduced to just a shortlist of two. A note of caution with these trends could be the way to go. Although I do like both runners.
The four eyecatchers running are Lake View Lad, Noble Endeavor, Flying Angel & Willie Boy. The latter two named have doubts on the stamina front but there is no doubting that Flying Angel is a well handicapped horse.
Noble Endeavor was third in this race last year two years ago off 4lb higher. The 10-year-old has only had two starts since but ran with a bit of promise in the Becher Chase on his sole start this season back in December. If he was in the form of two years ago, he would be major contender. This could be a good prep for the Grand National!
Lake View Lad is another probably looking for a tilt at the Grand National. Up 8lb since winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. The 9-year-old is going the right way and the more rain the better but top-weight of 11-12 will be some performance.
Verdict: Minella Rocco is to well-handicapped to ignore but further rain probably wouldn’t be to his liking. Activial scores highly on the trends but like Flying Angel there is a slight doubt about his stamina for 3m 1f. I am going to take a chance on his stamina as he looks overpriced. I am also going each way on Noble Endeavor.
Noble Endeavor – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Activial – 50/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
The race needs no introduction as it’s the feature race of Day 1 of the Festival. Buveur D’Air trained by Nicky Henderson bids to win the race for the third successive year.
Let’s look at the key trends. Ten of the last 11 winners of the Champion Hurdle or 91% of the total runners from 29 % of the total runners had the following traits:
Odds SP: 12/1 & under
Best in Three Runs: 1st
Highest Class Run: Grade 1
Runs in Season: 2 to 4
Distance Beaten Last Race: Won or within 4 lengths
Using the above trends, the three qualifiers are Apple’s Jade, Buveur D’air & Laurina.
Verdict: Giving 7lb to Apple’s Jade is going to be a tough ask for double Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air. Laurina’s form isn’t as good as the other two but she could be capable of a lot better. At the prices I am happy to go with Buveur D’Air to make it the three on the bounce especially as the ground looks perfect.
Buveur D’Air -11/4 @ Coral & William Hill
4:10 – OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
A field of fifteen mares are declared to go to post. A third of the runners are trained by Willie Mullins who could very easily have the first three home. He also has the likely odds on favourite in Benie Des Dieux who’s the choice of Ruby Walsh.
It’s not a race I intend to look at from a trend’s perspective.
Of the rest Roksana trained by Dan Skelton hold some interest. The lightly raced seven-year-old ran with promise when 3rd to Buveur D’air at Sandown on her last start. She was staying on at the end of the 2m and will be suited by today’s longer trip.
Verdict: I think this race will most likely go to Willie Mullins and arguably this is Ruby Walsh’s best chance on the day with Benie Des Dieux. Roksana could repay each-way support. But its not a race I have strong opinions on.
4:50 – Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4f
A maximum field of 20 are set to go to post for this novices’ handicap chase.
There is one recent eyecatcher entered. Before looking at that one, let’s focus on some of the key race trends:
Now the trends managed to find last years winner Mister Whitaker. Let’s hope they can do so again. The race is a relatively new one to the festival, as it was only first run in 2005.
Ten of the last eleven runners of the race or 91% of the winners from 26% of the total runners shared the following traits:
Odds SP: 16/1 & under
Official Rating: 135 to 142
Highest Class Win: Grade 3 or less
Days Since Last Run: 16 to 60
Using the above trends to find a manageable shortlist for further form study. We are left with 8 qualifiers: Riders Onthe Storm, Walt, Ben Dundee, Shady Operator, Roaring Bull, Lough Derg Spirit, Good Man Pat & Solomn Grundy. The last of those runners is one of our recent eyecatchers.
Verdict: There looks to be plenty of early pace in this race with a few who like to get on with it from the front. The pace of the race should suit Solomn Grundy but he’s dropping back in trip which may not be an advantage. He’s capable of winning a handicap like this if the distance move isn’t an inconvenience. Riders onthe Storm looks to have a favourites chance. The 7-year-old has only had three starts over fences but travelled like a high class when winning a Punchestown novice chase 30-days ago. He could be a well handicapped horse off a mark of 139 for trainer Tom Taaffe who won this race in 2008. A must for the shortlist. Good Man Pat, trained by Alan King, ticks the trends boxes and was a good third to Bags Groove in a Grade 2 at Kempton 17-days ago. If this race doesn’t come to quick, he should go well and he’s effective on rain softened ground.
Riders onthe Storm – 8/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power
Solomn Grundy – 25/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 7 ½ f
A race for amateur riders concludes Day 1 of the festival with a field of 18 set to go to post for the longest race of the four days.
We have a recent eyecatcher in Whisperinthebreeze, trained by Jessica Harrington, declared to run.
Looking at the key trends for the race. Ten of the last eleven winners of the race or 91% of winners from 34% of the total runners shared the following three traits:
Odds SP: 20/1 & under
Runs in Season: 4+
Maximum Distance Won: 2m 4f to 3m 2f
Using the above one gives us a trends shortlist of five: Le Breuil, Jerrysback, Atlanta Ablaze, Gun Digger and Whisperinthebreeze.
Now I am a bit cautious with the trends for this race. Not included are the two market leaders Ok Corral & Ballyward, who both fail the runs in the season trend. However, the list does include our eyecatcher.
Verdict: You are taking a chance if you’re playing here that your selection will stay this marathon trip. You can never rule out a Gordon Elliott runner as he’s won this race three times since 2011. He saddles Gun Digger who is also qualifier from the Gordon Elliott micro angle I mentioned earlier. Le Breuil, trained by Ben Pauling, should go well and has the added assistance of Jamie Codd in the saddle. Jerrysback’s form is a good any in the field but his jumping hasn’t always been the best. I’m reluctant to reject Whisperinthebreeze who should be well suited by this distance but the soft ground tempers enthusiasm. Indeed, the trainer has said the better the ground the better he is.
Gun Digger – 20/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Le Breuil – 14/1 – Gen – each way
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Good luck with your bets.
Cheers
John