Hi all,
Smokey Bear battled on to win at Newmarket and a best priced 5/1 meant not much damage was done on the day.
It’s not often you get Sunday racing like todays. Not only is it the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket but Haydock also hosts a bumper ten race card with two Group races, including the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes which has been moved from it’s normal venue Sandown.
Let’s start today’s betting preview at Newmarket.
Newmarket
2:25 – Davydenko made four from five last season when winning at Doncaster in September. That was the 4-year-old’s first run over 1m 2f and he’s capable of more improvement over the distance. He won first time up last season so should be ready roll after a 269-days absence. Good Birthday was an improver over this distance last season and ended last season with arguably a career best when 3rd of 30 in the Cambridgeshire. Races of the same mark here and the easing of the ground will be in his favour. West End Charmer represents the inform Mark Johnston yard. The 4-year-old won two of his four starts last season. Now up 10lb for an easy win at Doncaster in June. A prominent racer, the track should suit and he could get the run of the race out in front. William Buick is a positive jockey booking.
1pt win – West End Charmer – 13/2 @ Bet365
3:35 – The first fillies classic the of the season the Qipco 1000 Guineas. A field of 15 have been declared and it looks a strong renewal of the race if all main contenders have trained on.
Quadrilateral has been the ante post favourite for the race but she’s been weak in the betting over the last 24 hours. Last year’s Fillies Mile winner over C&D it was her stamina & battling attitude that won that race. The ease in the ground will be in her favour and she clearly won’t lack for stamina. I think she will take the beating if she’s improved over the winter.
Aidan O’Brien has only bought over Love for the race. was just behind Quadrilateral in third in the Fillies Mile. The daughter of Galileo had previously beaten Daahyeh in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh. More ease in the ground may not be to her liking though and I fancy Quadrilateral will confirm form with her. Feng
Millisle put in a career best when winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September. She got outpaced at halfway before battling on for a hard-fought success. The further they went the stronger she looked that day. Being by sprinter Starspangledbanner there have to be stamina doubts about the mile but on the dam side she’s closely related to horses to that did stay 1m+. Millisle has the build of a horse that should stay further and if she’s trained on she’s going to go close.
Cloak Of Spirits is highly regarded by trainer Richard Hannon. The daughter of Invincible Spirit had decent juvenile form and her third placed effort behind Daahyeh in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes looks solid enough. She’s got each way claims although you would like her yard to be in better form since the return.
Verdict: Millisle was doing her best at the finish when winning the Cheveley Park last Autumn and should get the mile. However, I think she might just find a stronger stayer in Quadrilateral who remains unbeaten after three starts and may have a bit more scope for improvement than the Irish filly.
6:30 – I’mgoing to take a chance with National Anthem in this 5f sprint handicap. The 5-year-old returned from a 417- day absence and a wind operation to win three times on the fibresand at Southwell, including two over the minimum trip. He’s been gelded since the last of those wins and the first time cheekpieces are applied for just his second start on grass. This only his 8th career start so his relatively lightly raced for his age and if he’s as effective on turf he shouldn’t be far away here. Jabbarockie seemed to improve last season as a 6-year-old and put in a career best when making all to win at Musselburgh in August. Up 7lb for that win makes life difficult but William Buick is an eye-catching jockey booking and the gelding has finished runner-up on his seasonal return for the last two years.
1pt win – National Anthem – NR
1pt win – Jabbarockie – 11/1 @ Bet365
Haydock
12:55 – Country, trained by William Haggas, notched a hat trick of wins last season before running below par on his final two starts. Drop back to 1m 2f will suit the 4-year-old who has scope more progress this season. The trainer has a good record with older handicapper at the track that are returned 8/1 & under – 6 winners from 13 runners 46% +11.47 8 placed 62%.
1pt win – Country – 11/2 @ Bet365
1:30 – London Arch won on his second career start at Newcastle in December and put in a career best when runner-up under a penalty at Lingfield 95-days ago. Has the potential for more progress, now going handicapping. First start on grass for the 3-year-old but trainer Charlie Fellowes has a decent record with his 3-year-old handicappers at Haydock -3 winners from 9 runners 33% +7 in the past 5-years.
1pt win – London Arch – 7/1 @ Bet365
3:15 – Happy Power can hopefully continue the good form of the Andrew Balding yard in this 7f Listed race. A winner first time up last season before finishing a close up third in this race. The 4-year-old was probably slightly flattered by his two-length 4th in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes last August but a reproduction of last years best form puts him firmly in contention.
1pt win – Happy Power – 9/2 @ Bet365
4:25 – Maid In India has to give weight away here having improved to a win a 5f, Group 3 at Newbury on her final start of 2019. The 6-year-old seems to be ground versatile, is 2 wins from 3 here, including one over C&D. Catching her fresh seems to be best as she 4 wins from 4 runs +55.50 when racing off a 90+day lay off.
1pt win – Maid In India – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John