Hi all,
Well that’s the Cheltenham Festival done and dusted for another 12 months. After the over indulgence of the Festival comes the inevitable hangover and this year the hangover is even worse due to the Covid-19 virus. No racing of any sort in the UK until the end of April at the earliest. Ireland is keeping the sport going behind closed doors but how long that will last is anyone’s guess.
Here is my belated Cheltenham Festival review using the ever-wonderful benefit of hindsight. Which contains three lessons learned from the last week, a couple of micro angles that are worth noting for next year, my highlight performances from each day and five eyecatchers from the meeting.
Betting wise; a good profit on the week although it could have been oh so much better if Column Of Fire hadn’t have fallen at the last when challenging in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.
The ante post selections made a profit, although I had hoped for a bit better, as did my bets on the day which was even better.
Cheltenham Festival Lessons Learned
In Monday’s Daily Punt I highlighted three lessons that I learnt from last weeks Festival.
1. Don’t Back Hold Up Horses in Festival Handicap Chases: Once again this year the handicap chases were won by horses who were prominent or tracked the leaders like The Conditional, Imperial Aura & Simply The Betts or were at worst in mid-division like Milan Native & Chosen Mate.
2. Concentrate on the big yards: Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott & Nicky Henderson are ahead of their peers in preparing a horse to be spot on for the big day. The ‘big three’ won 18 of the 28 races at this year’s Festival.
3. Cheltenham form from previous festivals is more important than more recent form elsewhere. We saw that again with the likes of Concertista, Min and Sire Du Berlais to name just three.
Cheltenham Festival Micro Angles
J P McManus
I highlighted the angle to Daily Punt readers on the day before the start of this year’s Festival
J P McManus runners sent off 9/1 & under, with 1 to 6 previous runs at Cheltenham.
The angle was profitable once again this season:
2020 – 4 winners from 10 runners 40& +8 A/E 2.09 6 placed 60%
22 winners from 85 runners 26% +37.68 (+53.33 BFSP) A/E 1.39 44 placed 52% since 2013.
Gordon Elliott Handicaps
Using that benefit of hindsight. It’s probably worth paying attention to Gordon Elliott runners in handicaps that are towards the front of the market.
Looking at his record in handicap races at the past three Cheltenham Festivals. Those sent off 11/1 & under are:
8 winners from 29 runners 28% +35 A/E 2.04 15 placed 52% (+44.75 each way)
Those sent off 12/1 & bigger produced
1 winner from 33 runners 3% +1 A/E 0.62 9 placed 27%
This looks an interesting trend. Between 2011 and 2017 his record in handicaps with runners 11/1 & under was:
1 winner from 21 runners 5% -15.5 A/E 0.37 11 placed 52%
Cheltenham Festival 2020 Review
Tuesday March 10th – Day 1
The official going description on the Old Course on day one was soft but looking at the times for the day it was heavy.
Performance of the Day:
The two stand out performances of day one where Shishkin & Epatante and it’s hard to split them.
Shishkin
Won what looks a high-class renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle. He should make up into high class novice chaser next season. There looks to be plenty of scope for more improvement from the 6-year-old with another summer on his back.
Runner-up Abacadabras was only a head behind the winner. He probably hit the front to soon and was just done by a stronger stayer on the day. The ground would also have been plenty soft enough for the 6-year-old. He will probably stay over hurdles next season and have a go at the Champion Hurdle.
The first two in the Supreme pulled 11 lengths clear of the third Chantry House who can also do well when going over the larger obstacles, at further than 2m.
Asterion Forlonge finished 4th but his jumping was a big let-down. He continually jumped to his right and caused carnage at the third & second last hurdles. He’s clearly got a good engine but at the moment he needs to go right-handed and his jumping needs to improve if he’s to fulfil his potential.
Epatante
If there was going to be a star in the Champion Hurdle field it was going to be Epatante as she put any doubts about the suitability of the track and the testing ground to bed with a decisive win. The mare has a bit more improvement in her and will no doubt be trained for back to back wins in the Champion Hurdle.
Eyecatcher:
Captain Guinness – Henry De Bromhead
Captain Guinness came into the Supreme with just two career starts under his belt and one of the least experienced horses in the field. He had travelled through the race like a top-class horse before being hampered three out and then being brought down two out.
But for events at the second last he would surely have finished in the first three. There should be plenty more to come from the 5-year-old, if his confidence hasn’t been affected to much.
Wednesday March 11th – Day 2
Like day one Wednesday’s racing took place on going softer than the official going description.
Performance of the Day:
Another day with plenty to choose from: Envoi Allen in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, Champ in the RSA Novices Chase, Dame De Compagnie’s win in the Coral Cup or even Easyland in the Cross Country.
Champ
Champ just edges it for me in what turned to out to be the finish of the meeting. For many he was the lay of the day. Coming into the race having fallen isn’t the best preparation for a Grade 1 Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Once again his jumping was hardly fluent and coming to the last he looked to have no chance of catching the front two Minells Indo & Allaho . However, jockey Barry Geraghty conjured up an incredible finish from him on the run in to register what looked a most unlikely win. It was stamina and class that won the day and if he can improve his jumping, he’s a serious Gold Cup contender. Mind you poor jumping didn’t stop Dawn Run from winning the Gold Cup, so it may not stop Champ.
Eyecatcher:
The Big Breakaway – Colin Tizzard
It wasn’t a good Festival for trainer Colin Tizzard so in the circumstances The Big Breakaway’s fourth placed effort behind the impressive Envoi Allen in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle can be marked up. The 5-year-old came into the race having won both starts over hurdles. A big chasing type anything does over hurdles is a bonus.
A half-brother to 3m chaser Kildisart, he remains one to follow both this season and next when racing over 3m. Will no doubt he going over fences next season with the RSA Novices’ Chase looking a target.
Thursday March 12th – Day 3
The action moved over to the New Course on Thursday. The official going description was soft, good to soft in places but looking at the race times it was soft on the hurdles course but heavy on the chase course.
Performance of the Day:
It could have been Samcro’s win the Marsh Novices’ Chase, or Min’s deserved first Cheltenham success in the Ryanair Chase. However, I have opted for Sire Du Berlais win the Pertemps Series Final.
Sire Du Berlais
Sire Du Berlais has only won three of his fifteen starts over hurdles but two of them have now come here in the Pertemps Final. Carrying top weight, 7lb higher than in 2019, and racing in the first time blinkers he travelled better into the race than he had 12 months earlier. Coming to the last it looked like stablemate The Storyteller was going better but jockey Barry Geraghty hadn’t asked his mount for his effort and the 8-year-old found plenty for pressure on the uphill finish to outstay the runner-up. The faster pace of these big field handicaps clearly brings out the best in Sire Du Berlais as does Cheltenham. Looking at RPR’s his performance was rated 2lb better than what Lisnagar Oscar achieved in winning the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle later on the card. He deserves a go in Graded company after this performance but he wouldn’t be seen at his best in a tactical race. Maybe connections will target it him at next year’s Stayers Hurdle given how well he goes at Cheltenham.
Eyecatcher:
Robin Des Foret – Willie Mullins
Robin Des Foret had looked a winner in waiting when finishing 3rd of 12 to Warthog in the valuable Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at the December meeting. Looked to be travelling like the winner coming to two out in the 3m Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas before his stamina seemed to give way and he eventually finished 6th of 27.
Having his first run since a wind-op he was held up at the back of the field in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase. The 10-year-old was never really put into the race but was making steady headway and picking off rivals before being badly hampered by the fall of Siruh Du Lac two out.
He’s been running well enough in valuable handicap chases this season to think there could be a race in him, maybe at the Punchestown Festival, off his present mark.
Friday March 13th – Day 4
The official going description on the final day of the Festival was good to soft but it was more like soft on the hurdle track. However, the chase course was riding much quicker than it had been on Thursday and was closer to the official going description.
Performance of the Day:
It has to be Al Boum Photo’s second successive win in the Gold Cup but there has to be an honourable mention for Goshan in the Triumph Hurdle. The juvenile was about to put in an impressive performance when making a mistake at the last and unseating his rider. He was ten lengths clear at the time and set for an easy win when coming to grief. There was no sign of jumping to the right and has trainer Gary Moore has a top-class horse on his hands. He didn’t deserve to lose but there will be other days for him maybe in next years Champion Hurdle.
Al Boum Photo
Al Boum Photo became the first horse since 2004 to retain the Gold Cup. Jockey Paul Townend took plenty of stick for his ride on Beni De Deux earlier in the week but he got spot on here giving Al Boum Photo a fabulous ride. It was also a great training performance from Willie Mullins who had the 8-year-old spot on for the day.
I just hope Al Boum Photo now starts to get the praise he deserves. He was a good winner last year and an even better one this year. Yet I suspect many are still underwhelmed by him. Maybe it will take a hat trick of Gold Cup wins to show people what a great chaser he is.
Eyecatchers:
The Bosses Oscar – Gordon Elliott
The Bosses Oscar probably suited by the standing start in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle that concluded this years Festival. He also may not have been totally at home on the track on his handicap debut either.
Always in the rear he started to make good headway between the final two hurdles and final effort wasn’t helped by stablemate Column Of Fire’s fall at the last. Still the 4-year-old stayed on strongly up the hill to claim what had seemed an unlikely 5th at the finish.
He’s only had the four starts over hurdles and still looks a work in progress to me. There should be more to come from the juvenile going forward.
Cheers
John