Hi all,
It’s too early to be too confident but I managed to find the first two handicap winners on day one and Darver Star & Rouge Vif placed in their respective races. All in all, a solid days punting.
Let’s hope we can continue in winning form on Wednesday. Apart from my ante post selections I’m not adding much to the portfolio today.
Wednesday March 11th – Cheltenham Festival – Day 2
1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 5f
The Willie Mullins trained The Big Getaway was an ante post selection for the race and if he handles the Cheltenham undulations won’t be far away at the finish.
Verdict: Irish banker of the meeting and the unbeaten Envoi Allen seems to have scared off all his rivals with just 12 set to go to post for this year’s renewal. Impressive Ascot winner Sporting John is also unbeatenon his three hurdle starts and this slick hurdler is open to further improvement. As are The Big Getaway & The Big Breakaway.
2:10 – RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Ten have declared to run and it’s not a race that I got involved in ante post after I missed the 25/1 available about Copperhead.
Verdict: Champ is many pundits lay of the week. He’s not mine though. A good winner of his first two starts before falling at the second last here in the Dipper Novices’ Chase with the race at his mercy. Horses running in Grade 1 chases at the festival who fell on their last start are 1 winner from 22 runners 5% – 17 6 placed 27%. That said he’s a class horse who can win this if his jumping holds up. Minello Indo ticks the all-important Cheltenham Festival form box having won last years Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. A Navan beginners chase winner on his second start over fences. He’s not as speedy as Champ but he’s got a good attitude and is a solid contender. Allaho also won on his second start over fences when running out an impressive winner of a Fairyhouse beginners’ chase 46-days ago. A very promising young chaser but will his stamina for 3m hold out? Robbie Power has opted for Slate House rather than Copperhead which is interesting. I still prefer Copperhead who jumped well when winning last month’s Reynoldstown Novices Chase and looks an ideal type for the race.
2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 2m 5f
Not a race I have had much success in the past ten years although I did find the winner in 2012. I have had three ante post darts at the race Alfa Mix, Dame De Compagnie & Protektorat who are all much shorter in the betting now.
Verdict: Given twenty-six are set to meet the starter it’s a tough race to get a horse to place never mind find the winner. I remain hopeful that my three will give us a good run for our money.
Of the rest Birchdale is an interesting one on his handicap hurdle debut. A Grade 2 winning novice hurdler last season, he’s just had the one start this season, over fences and Barry Geraghty has opted for Dame De Compagnie. Willie Mullins won this in 2018 and he saddles seven. The best of his could be last year’s Cesarewitch winner Stratum. He’s not been as successful over hurdles, as the flat but ran well when 4th of 25 in a valuable handicap hurdle at last seasons Punchestown Festival. Canardier is having his first start since switching to the Mullins stable. The 8-year-old was 5th in last years race, off 4lb lower and has to be respected once more. Franco De Port is the least exposed of the Mullins runners having just had the four starts over hurdles. A good second to Stormy Ireland in a Naas Grade 3 last time puts him on a competitive mark for his handicap debut. But does he have the experience for the rough and tumble of a big field handicap like this?
3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
My first of this season’s Cheltenham Festival ante post bets was Defi Du Seuil 10/1 each way. If he stands up, I can’t see him being out the first three. I also added Dynamite Dollars each way and I remain convinced that he will out run his odds.
Verdict: It’s a shame that Altior misses the race from a race perspective but it makes life a bit easier for my picks. Chacun Pour Soi has a big engine but how will he cope with the track? All questions that will be answered by 3:45. I remain in the Defi Du Seuil camp although at the prices I would prefer Dynamite to blow his rivals away.
4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (Class 2)
Verdict: Tiger Roll against the French raiders. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Tiger Roll gets turned over by one of the French horses but which one? Not a question I can answer and not a betting race for me either, although I will be cheering the Tiger on. Good luck if you are playing though.
4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
I never found the winner of this race but that hasn’t stopped me form having a couple of ante post punts on Palladium & Repetitio.
Verdict: With 22 juvenile hurdlers, many of them unexposed in handicap company and open to more improvement, it’s hardly a race to be confident about. Especially when noting that the past ten renewals have produced winners at 40/1, 33/1 x 3, 25/1 x 2. If I was picking a selection now Palladium would be one of them and at around 12/1, he still represents a bit of value. Looking at the race pace maps it should be run at a good gallop which could see one of the more patiently ridden horse come through to win but which one? The Alan King trained Blacko has won both his starts on soft ground since joining the stable. There could be more improvement to come and he’s got claims. Paul Nicholls has won this three times since 2010. He saddles Mick Pastor & Thyme Hill. The former ran no sort of race on his debut for the trainer at Cheltenham back in November. Ran much better when running out an easy winner at Ludlow 63-days ago. Has had a wind-op since that run and also gets the first-time hood here. Hopefully that and a big field can help him settle better. Gordon Elliott has won this race twice since 2013, he runs five, the likes of Aramax & Recent Revelations give him a strong hand in the race but they all have some sort of chance.
1pt win – Blacko – 10/1 @ Bet3765
1pt win – Mick Pastor – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
Ask A Honey Bee was a 50/1 each way ante post selection after his Haydock bumper win and he’s since gone on to win a Wetherby bumper.
Verdict: Appreciate It created a good impression when winning a Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival and looks a worthy favourite on that form. However, at 15/8 he hardly screams back me. Gordon Elliott has won the race twice in the past three years. He has three contenders in Eskylane who actually finished one place ahead of the favourite at Fairyhouse back in November. He also runs last time out winners Queens Brook & Darling Daughter who get the handy 7lb mares’ allowance. The former won on her debut under rules at Gowran Park 25-days ago. She probably didn’t beat the strongest of fields, that day, but the time was a good one for a bumper. After her win connections seemed to suggest Cheltenham wasn’t on the radar so it’s interesting, she takes her place here. Not many horses win a bumper race under a double penalty so Ask A Honey Bee shouldn’t be dismissed lightly despite his odds, albeit this a big step up in class. I still think he can get into the money and who knows he may even cause a surprise and win. Well we can dream.
1pt win – Queens Brook – 8/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John