Hi all,
It’s finally here the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. We can look forward to the best four days of horse racing in the world. Champions will be crowned and just as importantly on Friday I will find out if my ambitious ante post punt has worked out or not.
On one level it’s already been a success most of my ante posts selections will run in their respective races and the great majority are much shorter in the betting than I advised, a few significantly so.
It’s going to be a four-day rollercoaster of emotions that’s for sure.
A busy few days ahead so this will be the longest of this week’s festival previews.
It will be interesting to see how much rain falls on Monday but it looks likely the going will be at least soft all over.
Apart from my ante post bets I have concentrated on today’s handicap races.
Tuesday March 10th – Day 1
1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
We are already on Asterion Forlonge ante post and it looks like he will go off favourite now with the going being soft.
Add in the likes of Shishkin, Abacadabras, Chantry House & Fiddlerontheroof and even Captain Guinness & Edwardstone and you have the makings of high class renewal and a great race to get the festival underway.
Verdict: Shishkin is classy and looks to have plenty of pace, if the going was good to soft, he would take the beating. Chantry House could be open to the most improvement of the market leaders so can’t be ruled out. Fiddlerontheroof probably needs a real stamina, so the softer the better for him. I’m happy with Asterion Forlonge but If you are looking for a further selection then I wouldn’t want put you off, Abacadabras who’s only loss over hurdles came when beaten by Envoi Allen at Fairyhouse two starts back.
2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
This years Arkle has attracted 11 novice chasers but it’s a race full of quality and could be one of the races of the festival.
I don’t normally have a bet in this race but this year I have had three ante post punts: Brewin’upastorm, Global Citizen & Rouge Vif. I’m happy that all three will face the starter and hopeful one of them will win.
Besides those three we have the Irish raiders Notebook & Fakir D’oudairies and Esprit Du Large and the under radar Put The Kettle On. That seven out off 11 that you can make a strong case for.
Verdict: I expected Notebook to be shorter in the betting and he’s starting to look a bit of value now. Partly due to punters thinking his temperament may let him down. If he handles the preliminaries, he’s got the form and jumping ability to win this. That said I’m happy with my three in the race and given it looks like it could be a very strongly run race which would suit Brewin’upastorm who will be held up off the pace.
2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 3m 1f
The first of two handicaps on day one and just a 23-runner puzzle to solve.
If you can find a winner or two in the festival handicaps you will have probably paid for your week’s punting. The hard bit is to find one winner. This isn’t a race that I have had an ante post punt in.
If and it’s a big if, Vindication can replicate his form going right-handed he’s more than capable of winning this. He showed the benefit of a summer wind -op with an impressive win in a valuable Ascot handicap chase back in December. He’s 8lb higher now but he remains on a winnable mark. It’s not the weight rise that will prevent him winning.
Discorama has finished runner-up at the last two Cheltenham festivals. No problem with the track for him but this is his first start since a wind-op and his first run since December. His form prior to the wind op wasn’t great so he does have well-being questions to answer. Given his festival you can see why he’s so short in the betting for this.
The Conditional won over C&D in October before finishing 2nd of 24 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. Travelled well for a long way in Warwick’s Classic Chase when last seen in action but his stamina for 3m 5f seemed to run out. The drop back in trip will suit and he remains a progressive handicap chaser.
Cepage has some excellent form at the track. Three of his top four RPR’s have come here albeit over 2m 4 ½ f. The 8-year-old put in arguably career best when winning here on Trial’s Day. He’s a really economical jumper of a fence which is a major asset in a race like this. Only 1lb higher than last time so remains on a competitive mark but this will be his first run beyond 2m 5 ½ f so his stamina for 3m 1f is a big unknown.
Verdict: Stamina for 3m 1f has to be taken on trust but Cepage remains on a competitive after his last course win and given his jumping is hard to leave out of calculations. Top weight Vinndication has a touch of class and still looks handicapped to win this despite an 8lb rise in the weights. No stamina concerns for him but going left-handed is a concern. Discorama ticks the festival form box but needs the wind op to revive him. The Conditional remains a handicap chaser with upside and won’t be far away back down in distance.
1pt each way – Cepage – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – The Conditional – 15/2 @ Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes
3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
Verdict: I’m more than happy with each way ante post selection Darver Star. Not sure I would be on him on him at 12s though. Supersundae has been backed for the race in recent days. He can run well but 10-year-old’s in Grade 1 races at the festival don’t appeal. Egg firmly on face if he wins. I have been against Epatante for the last couple of months. If there is a star in the race it’s her. On flat track I doubt any of these can touch her but but will she get up the hill on soft ground?
4:10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) 2m 4f.
Verdict: Benie Des Dieux & Honeysuckle would be first and second favourite for the Champion Hurdle which shows how good this year’s mares’ hurdle is quality wise. Not a betting race for me but Benie’s stablemate Stormy Ireland has looked much improved this season it’s hard to see her beating the big two but she has each way claims.
4:50 – Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4f
The second of the day’s handicaps with 19 novice handicap chasers set to meet the starter for this year’s race.
Imperial Aura heads the market and you can see why. His 2nd of 12 to Simply The Betts here on Trial’s Day is the best form on offer. The 7-year-old is 7lb higher now but he’s only had three starts over fences and remains a progressive handicap chaser who can rate higher.
Champagne Court won his first two starts over fences before finishing 5th in that Cheltenham race. He has a plenty to find with Imperial Aura on that running but that was his first start since November so may just have needed the run that day and a stronger run race could see him get closer today.
Earlofthecotswolds has also just the three starts over fences. A winner of a novice chase at Exeter in December. He’s another capable of better over the larger obstacles and gets the first time cheekpieces today.
Espoir De Guye looked progressive young chaser when winning at Ascot on his last start 80-days ago. The handicapper has hiked up 14lb for that success. Has won two of his three starts over fences and was runner-up on his chase debut to Simply The Betts at Chepstow on his seasonal return. Taking that form literally he has a few pounds to find with Imperial Aura.
Hold The Note, trained by Mick Channon who won this race two years ago with Mister Whittaker, has yet to win over fences but was travelling strongly when badly hampered at Kempton two starts back and looked set to win coming to the last when upped to Grade 2 company and 3m at Warwick 59-days ago. Up 12lb for finishing runner-up but he’s got the stamina and class to go close if the drop back in trip doesn’t prove an inconvenience.
Paint The Dreams is another maiden over fences, after four starts, but if he reproduces his second in the Dipper here two starts back wouldn’t be without an each way chance. Ran no sort of race at Ludlow when dropped back to 2m last time. The return to this trip is in his favour and If you forgive that lifeless performance then he’s a contender with Jack Tudor taking off a handy 5lb.
Galvin, trained by Gordon Elliott, was 6thy in last season’s Ballymore Novices Hurdle. Fell on his chase debut at Galway in October when still in with a chance, Has finished 4th and runner-up on to subsequent starts over fences. Handicap debut today and has a 105-day absence to overcome. Not without a chance but needs to jump better than he has done so far over the larger obstacles.
Precious Cargo found things happening to quick when 3rd of 6 behind Rouge Vif in the Grade 2 Kingmaker at Warwick 31-days ago. Should stay today’s extra distance and could well improve for the step up in trip. Top weight to carry here but looks the type to win more races over fences.
Verdict: Galvin could improve for going handicapping but his jumping needs to be better. Precious Cargo could improve for the step up to 2m 4f and trainer Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race. Espoir De Guye would be of big interest if he had a recent run under his belt but he hasn’t. That leaves the front two in the market Imperial Aura & Hold The Note who both have the sort of profile for a winner of this race.
1pt win – Hold The Note – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Imperial Aura – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 6f
The longest race of the four days which this year is being run over 2f shorter than previously but it will remain a severe test of stamina on then likely ground. Not a race I usually take much of an interest in but actually found last years winner.
Carefully Selected heads the market and probably rightly on form and given he’s 3 from 3 over fences this season. However, his jumping needs to improve on what he’s shown so far at a track like this. With a clear round he probably wins but will he make a mistake he won’t be able to recover from.
Ravenhill has the added assistance of Jamie Codd in the saddle. This is first start since falling in the Troytown Handicap Chase back in November. Will be fit enough given he hails from the Gordon Elliott stable but soft ground still remains a bit of an unknown in this company.
Forza Milan finished runner-up to Carefully Selected at Naas last time. He’s got nearly stone to find with the favourite on that running but he’s got an extra six furlongs to travel here which could enable the 8-year-old to get closer today. He’s a full brother to Grand National winner One For Arthur which suggests a marathon trip like this could be ideal. Another positive for his chance is the booking of top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor.
Lord De Mesnil has high class staying handicap chase form and will like the testing ground. On known form he’s the best of the British trained runners and if he handles the track is a strong contender for sure.
Both Newtide & Springfield Fox are promising novice chasers who can find more improvement for the step up to 3m 6f. Slight preference for the former who was probably a lucky winner of the Grade 2 Towton Chase at Wetherby when Boldmere fell at the last. He looks a real stayer and goes well in the mud. The only negative to both their chances is that horses with 2 or less runs over fences are 0 winners from 27 runners 3 place in the race in the past 12-years.
Verdict: The weakest race of the day. Carefully Selected is the classiest horse in the race but is too short a price given his jumping. He won’t be able to get away with the mistakes over these fences. Forza Milan could get closer to the favourite than he did at Naas over today’s distance and claims as does Newtide who has top Irish amateur Barry O’Neill in the saddle.
0.5pts win – Newtide – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
0.5pts win – Forza Milan – 10/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John