Hi all,
A disappointing Saturday but I’m not disheartened. I’m really excited about my Cheltenham ante post portfolio and if you have followed me in, you can be excited too. Most of the ante post bets will run in their respective race which is half of the battle and the majority of them have shortened considerably in the betting.
My confidence is high that we will be leaving Friday with a healthy profit that will more than make up for the first two months of 2020. I made a conscious effort this season to focus on Cheltenham and hopefully it will pay off.
A final betting day before the start of the festival. There’s a good card at Naas and the Warwick card also looks competitive.
Let’s begin this Sunday preview at Naas and the Leinster National.
Naas
3:15 – MansionBet “GetItReady” For Cheltenham Leinster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m
A field of 15 have been declared for this valuable handicap chase although one of them The Long Mile won at Gowran Park on Saturday so looks an unlikely starter.
Willie Mullins has won this race three times since 2010, including the last two. He saddles Bonbon Au Miel who is having his first start since falling in the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham two years ago. A 725-day absence to overcome but if he’s ready to roll is probably on a winnable mark. The other Mullins runner is Chef Des Obeaux. The 8-year-old has yet to win since switching to his present stable but ran a cracker when 5th of 27 in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas. Was then sent of the shortest priced of the Mullins runners (6/1) for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park but he made a mistake at the first and was never going after that and was pulled up at the 5th. If you can forgive that run, he’s got a good chance here of reproducing his Paddy Power run.
Joseph O’Brien saddles two with a chance. Choungaya shaped like a stayer when beaten less than a length into second by Tornado Flyer here over 2m 3f in November. He unseated his rider at the first in the Thyestes on his handicap chase debut but remains capable of winning a race off his present mark. Shady Operator is more exposedin handicap chases than his stablemate but he’s got a chance on 3rd of 16 to Sumos Novios in a valuable handicap chase at Limerick at Christmas. Sent off just 7/1 for big field handicap chase at the Dublin Festival an wasn’t disgraced in 9th. Step up in distance should suit the 7-year-old and big run can’t be ruled out.
Castle Oliver comes into the race with the most likeable profile seeking the hat trick. A winner at Down Royal starts back over 2m. Stepping up in class he was suited by the return to 2m 4f here 14-days. Strong at the finish that day and looks set to appreciate today’s step up to 3m. All his last three wins have come on soft or heavy so underfoot conditions hold no terrors for the 6-year-old. Great chance of the four timer, if this race doesn’t come to quick.
Verdict: Castle Oliver is the form pick. Choungaya brings some solid novice chase form to the race and has to be respected and looks the pick of the O’Brien pair. Both Mullins runners need respecting and Chef Des Obeaux would be competitive if forgiving his Thyestes run.
1pt win – Castle Oliver – 7/2 @ Bet365
Warwick
3:35 – I fancied Spider’s Bite for a race at Wincanton on Thursday but he was pulled out on account of the testing ground. The 8-year-old had looked a promising novice chase early last season, finishing runner-up to King of Realms on his chase debut at Ascot and was in the process of running a big race when unseating his rider on his next start at Ludlow. Two starts this season have been poor and he was beaten horse when pulling up four out at Doncaster 67-days ago. Returns from a wind op today and if the procedure has worked has a good handicap mark to exploit. Clearly comes with risks attached but Richard Johnson takes the ride and he’s a contender here if the rain stays away.
Fleminport has yet to win on his seven starts over fences but did put in put in a career best when 4th here 46-days ago. He shaped that day like he would be suited by today’s 3m 5f trip. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are replaced by the first-time blinkers and if he jumps better can’t be ruled out. Has been supported in the early bird market which suggests a big run is expected.
Echo Watt come into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Uttoxeter & Fontwell. Stays three miles as he showed at Uttoxeter. He’s looked a much-improved horse since going over fences and is now 2 wins from 3 runs. Takes a big step up in trip from Fontwell and if his stamina holds out 6-year-old can’t be discounted despite a 6lb rise in the weights.
Verdict: Spider’s Bite could be a very well handicapped horse. It’s not hard to think Fleminport could find improvement for a step up to a marathon trip. Echo Watt has a nice profile and has only had three starts over fences. If he stays 3m 5f he can win again.
1pt win – Echo Watt – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:40 – Closing Ceremony was an eyecatcher early in the season and then ran really well for a long way at Haydock his favourite track when last seen in action 78-days ago but was pulled up coming to two out. Jockey reported the horse had lost in action. He might have reached the veteran stage but as he showed last season, he’s capable of winning a handicap hurdle on a flat speed favouring track. Questions to answer after his Haydock run but he’s had a break and he’s 5 wins from 11 runs +23.41 6 placed when racing within 75-days of his last start. Each way claims if he bounces back to last seasons best form.
0.5pts each way – Closing Ceremony – 20/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John