Hi all,
A couple of good winners on Saturday to add to Friday’s win. Can we continue this weekend’s profitable run today?
The big race action is over the Irish Sea at Naas with the big race being the Leinster National over 3m. I am looking at a couple of the handicaps at Naas, including the Leinster National. We also have an eyecatcher running there today.
Sunday 9th March
Naas
4:20 – An interesting 2m 3f handicap hurdle which has attracted a big field of 19 runners. The going at the time of writing on Saturday evening is good to yielding but more rain is forecast so if the rain arrives the going will ease further.
The two that interest me at the prices are: Mont Pelier and Jimmy Breekie. The former was first past the post on his seasonal reappearance at Wexford but subsequently lost the race due to the jockey not being qualified to ride in the race. The 6-year-old ran with glimmers of promise on his next two starts in maiden hurdles. However, he left that form well behind when 2nd of 16 on his handicap debut 8-days ago and should be bang there if in the same form from 3lb higher.
Jimmy Breekie hasn’t won since landing a Perth novice hurdle in the summer of 2017. However, the form of his last two starts in slightly better races than this give him a big chance here. The 9-year-old was a 2 & ½ lengths third of 13 at Navan in January. Before matching that level of form when a 2 ¼ length third over 3m at Leopardstown 35-days ago. He’s been nudged up 2lb for that effort, but he remains on a competitive mark and has place claims.
Mont Pelier – 15/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Jimmy Breekie – 14/1 – Gen – (paying 4 places ¼ odds) – each way
4:50 – The Leinster National and a field of 15 are set to go to post for this year’s renewal. The going on the chase course is yielding so if the forecast rain arrives it should ease further. It looks a highly quality renewal of the race.
De Name Escapes Me is the overnight favourite. The 9-year-old a winner of a valuable 2m 4f handicap chase at Navan two starts back before running below market expectations in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown. He’s 13lb higher than when winning at Navan but he’s more than capable of winning this for an inform trainer. A solid favourite.
Wishmoor, trained by Joseph O’Brien put in an improved performance to finish runner-up to Dounikos in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown 28-days ago. Drops back from an extended 3m 4 ½ f here but still needs respecting. Dounikos shouldn’t be far away again and can go well.
If the ground does soften sufficiently, I can see Monbeg Notorious going really well. The 8-year-old was a very decent novice chaser last season including an easy win in the Thyestes Chase. He shaped in the Grand National Trial than he had done on his belated seasonal reappearance in this year’s Thyestes. Still he finished a well beaten 10th of 16 but given the 8-year-olds best form has come on soft or heavy the ground, the son of Milan just hasn’t had his optimum underfoot conditions.
The key to his chance, is rain turning the ground soft or worse. I think he will bounce back sometime maybe today will be that day.
Of the rest, Youcantcallherthat also finished well beaten in the Grand National Trial but she’s another capable of much better showing on soft or worse ground. Killer Miller, a winner of a beginners chase here in November 2015. The 10-year-old was off the track for 729-days after falling in the Paddy Power in December 2016. He returned to action over hurdles at Limerick 74-days ago. It was a performance with some promise. Hard to say how much ability he retains but if he’s on a good mark and could outrun his odds.
Another who out run big odds is The Conditional. The 7-year-old is a winning pointer, arguably put his best effort over fences when 5th of 17 in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park 22 days ago. A winner over 2m 7f over hurdles, on heavy ground, 12 months ago. He’s another who will appreciate soft ground on his handicap chase debut. The step up 3m could also eke out the improvement he would need to be competitive here.
Verdict: De Name Escapes Me is a solid favourite. Monbeg Notorious will bounce back sometime and if he gets soft ground it could be today. The Conditional and Youcantcallherthat are both capable of reach the places if the rain arrives.
Monbeg Notorious – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds) – each way
The Conditional – 12/1 @ William Hill (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) – each way
Eyecatcher Running
3:45 – Kaiser Black – 15/8 @ William Hill – Looks the one to beat in this novice chase if he reproduces his 1 ¼ length second to La Baque Au Roi at Leopardstown in the 2m 5f Grade 1 novices’ chase 35-days ago. Granted the 8-year-old drops back a furlong here and will probably be one for 3m + but I think connections will be disappointed if he can’t win this. That said I wouldn’t want to take shorter than 15/8 about his chance.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Good luck with your bets.
Cheers
John