Hi all,
As you would expect, with Cheltenham just ten days away, it’s not the best of Saturday’s in terms of quality. Still, there’s some competitive handicaps on offer at both Doncaster & Newbury. Another winter storm is on the way and with it more rain but hopefully it won’t impact on today’s racing.
Newbury
2:05 – Theatre Guide, a former useful staying handicap chaser, he hasn’t won since December 2016 but looked set for success in this race 12 months ago but made a mistake at the last and was caught in the shadow of the post. Returned to form when a close-up third in the Veterans’ Series Final at Sandown 56-days ago.
Ten-year-old’s always need respecting in these veteran’s chase. The best of that age group looks to be Le Rocher & Strong Pursuit. The former was runner-upto Gala Ball at Wincanton two starts before finishing 2nd of 10 at Sandown last time. Loves soft ground and shouldn’t be far away again.
Strong Pursuit is the least exposed horse in the field. He’s only had the four starts over hurdles and won a beginners chase here back in 2017. Showed he retains ability when 3rd of 12 at Sandown 12 months ago, after a 463-day absence. Well beaten by Copperhead over C&D in December but he was hassled for the lead that day and if he gets an uncontested lead here could bounce back to form.
Verdict: Like most jumps fans I like these Veterans chases. Theatre Guide looked unlucky here 12 months ago and despite a long losing run should be in the mix again. Le Rocher & the lightly raced Strong Pursuit also appeal with the latter getting the pick.
1pt win – Strong Pursuit – 8/1 @ Bet365
3:15 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
As I mentioned earlier in the week Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race. He saddles three including last year’s winner San Benedeto, Secret Investor & Mont Des Avaloirs. They all have chances but first two may prefer less testing ground. Mont Des Avaloirs has likely been aimed at the race. I said in a recent eyecatcher article, a mark of 142 over fences looks workable when he’s dropped back in distance to a round 2m 4f/2m 5f. Like his stablemates he might prefer better ground but he’s also effective on soft ground. Looks the best of the Nicholls trio and is a worthy favourite.
Gala Ball has plenty of form at the track including a C&D win and finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago after a 707-day absence. Showed his well-being when winning at Wincanton two starts back before a lesser effort on good to soft at Warwick three weeks ago. A return to softer ground is the 10-year-old’s favour and he can get into the money.
Domaine De L’isle didn’t run well at Ascot over 3m last time on his bid for a four timer after wins at Chepstow, Newcastle & Ascot. I don’t think he got home last time out behind Ballyoptic and a return to this trip could well see his progression continue. If you are happy to forgive his last effort then you have one of the value bets of the race.
Verdict: Mont Des Avaloirs is a fairly obvious one. Gala Ball has place claims again as does Domaine De L’isle.
2pt win – Mont Des Avaloirs – 4/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Domaine De L’isle – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Doncaster
1:50 – Coded Message an easy winner of a 3m ½ f handicap hurdle at Kempton over Christmas, off 15 lower and hasn’t been disgraced on either of her subsequent two starts in Grade 2 & Listed races. The return to handicap company and back to 3m ½ f will suit and she won’t be far away at the finish.
1pt win – Coded Message – 9/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – 888Sport Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f
Worthy Farm bids for the hat trick after wins at Wincanton on soft & heavy ground. The 7-year-old has responded well to the fitting of the blinkers. The softer the ground the better and although this a different track to Wincanton, today’s furlong longer distance is in his favour. Despite a 7lb rise in the weights he could improve further to defy it.
Boldmere is another young improving handicap chaser, an impressive winner here over 3m two starts back the 7-year-old looked set to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby when falling at the last. Capable of more progress and can rate higher than a mark of 147 but the trainer has stated he won’t be risked if the ground is too testing.
Fortified Bay is another seeking the hat trick after wins at Market Rasen and latterly at Newcastle 32-days ago. Stamina for 3m 2f to be proven, just the one run beyond 3m, but at Newcastle he was strong at the finish and shapes like he could progress further for the extra distance. Mind you he needs to find more improvement as the 8-year-old is 7lb higher than last time and upped in class.
Chidswell, last year’s winnerwas an eyecatcher when third here in the Sky Bet Chase last month. I thought this race would be a likely target again and he’s just 5lb higher than 12 months ago. Jumping will be tested and this year’s race looks stronger than last 12 months ago. Can’t be totally ruled in his bid for back to back wins but trainer Nicky Richards is 27-days and 40-days since his last winner which is a concern.
Despite carrying top-weight of 12-7 Definitely Red would be a serious contender here but his first preference is a race at Kelso.
Verdict: Fortified Bay has a nice light weight and has each way claims. Of the front two in the betting Worthy Farm & Boldmere, I just prefer the latter.
1pt each way – Fortified Bay – 11/1 @ Coral
1pt win – Boldmere – 4/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John