Hi all,
The weather continues to take its toll on jumps racing which means we could see some bumper fields from the middle of the week onwards.
Looking towards the weekend the jumps action has an eve of Cheltenham Festival feel. Both Newbury & Doncaster will be hoping to they can stage their two-day cards on Friday & Saturday.
Doncaster’s feature race on Saturday is the 3m2f Grimthorpe Handicap Chase. Over at Newbury there is the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase and another of the ever-popular veterans series qualifiers.
Also, on Saturday Kelso host one of its most valuable card of its season with the highlights being the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle and the Listed Premier Chase which has often been used as a Grand National prep race.
Saturday Big Race Trends
Before looking at last week’s action and horses for the tracker I though I would look at some of the trends for Saturday’s two big handicaps at Newbury & Doncaster. Starting with the Greatwood Gold Cup.
Newbury – Greatwood Gold Gup
The results below contain 11 winners from 128 runners 33 placed.
The one standout stat is the record of Paul Nicholls in the race.
8 winners from 23 runners 35% +52.83 A/E 2.65 10 placed 44%
It’s not often you get one trainer dominate a handicap like Nicholls has the Greatwood Gold Cup. Clearly anything he saddles in this year’s race must be on high on the shortlist.
Are there any other significant race trends?
Age:
7yo & 8yo’s: 8 winners from 53 runners +16.5 A/E 1.34 14 placed
9yo+: 1 winner from 60 runners -51 A/E 0.21 14 placed
Wins at Distance: 1
8 winners from 32 runners +52.5 A/E 2.5 14 placed
Days Since Last Run: 21 to 45 days
9 winners from 59 runners +23.33 A/E 1.4 19 placed
Last Time Out Placing: 1st
0 winners from 23 runners 2 placed (Exp/Wins 2.64)
Horse’s who pulled up or unseated their rider on their last start are – 3 winners from 13 runners +30 A/E 3.3
Official Rating v Last Race: Higher
0 winners from 33 runners 6 placed (Exp/Wins 3.75).
Doncaster – Grimethorpe Handicap Chase
Looking at the last 11 renewals of the race which contain 11 winners from 102 runners 28 placed.
Official Ratings: 126 to 131
7 winners from 32 runners +43.5 A/E 2.05 10 placed
Days Since Last Run: 31 to 75-days
8 winners from 35 runners +31.5 A/E 1.64 14 placed
Last Time Out Placing: 1st
5 winners from 20 runners +17.83 A/E 1.66
Distance Move: Up 2f to 3 ½ f
8 winners from 42 runners +43 A/E 1.54 15 placed
The trends for the Grimthorpe Chase are not as strong as for the Greatwood Gold Cup but nonetheless there are a few interesting ones, which should help when it comes to shortlisting contenders for the race.
Tracker Horses:
There are five eyecatchers and they include two impressive winners and a couple of handicappers on winnable marks when racing on decent ground.
Sir Oliver – Richard Hughes – Kempton – Monday February 17th
The 3-year-old broke his maiden tag at the sixth attempt when putting a career best effort on RPR’s when winning a 5f novice at Kempton. Returning from a 102-day break and having his first start since a gelding operation. The procedure looks to have done the trick and he looks well handicapped off a mark of 74.
Christopher Wood – Paul Nicholls – Musselburgh – Tuesday February 18th
Twice a winner as juvenile before finishing 3rd of 9 to Pentland Hills in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. Struggled on his first two starts this season but returned from an 80-day break and a wind-op to register a comfortable win at Musselburgh. Clearly the drop back to Class 3 company suited but the 5-year-old showed enough here to think he can step up back up in class and be competitive. Well suited by some ease in the ground and can win again.
Oh This Is Us – Richard Hannon – Newcastle – Wednesday February 19th
The 7-year-old probably needed his recent return to action at Wolverhampton and ran much better here to finish 4th of 14 in one of the most competitive 7f handicaps of the all-weather season. Last year’s All-Weather Mile winner at Lingfield on Good Friday. A strongly run 7f or mile on turning track really suits the gelding and two of his best four RPR’s have come over a mile at Lingfield. He’s hitting form at the right time and looks to have a good chance of retaining his all-weather mile crown at Easter.
Polish – Fergal O’Brien – Kempton – February 22nd
I tipped Polish for the handicap hurdle that opened Kempton’s Saturday card. And he will have gone into plenty of notebooks after his 4th of 17 to Downtown Getaway. The 5-year-old made his handicap hurdle debut of what looked a good mark and so it proved. The moderate early gallop didn’t play to his strengths and he did best of those challenging late. But for a mistake three out he would have finished closer to the front two than he did. This was only his third start over hurdles, so he remains capable of better especially when he brushes up his hurdling. A stronger overall gallop would have suited better, and he should stay further.
Kildisart – Ben Pauling – Kempton – February 22nd
Mister Malarky won the valuable 3m Betway Handicap Chase and he looks capable of going close again but there were a couple who finished behind him that caught the eye.
Whatmore made an encouraging handicap debut in finishing 4th. The 8-year-old was making steady headway from the rear when making a slight mistake three out. The decent ground suited and although he was ridden as a doubtful stayer, he showed that he does stay 3m and the jockey wasn’t hard on him over the last two fences. Won’t mind a slight drop in distance, on a stiffer track, and has a handicap chase in him.
KIldisart is my main eyecatcher from the race. The 8-year-old ran his best race of the season so far returned to better ground when finishing a six length 5th. Three mile around Kempton is on the short side for him these days and a step up to 3m 2f+ surely beckons. Could do with improving his jumping which was a bit sloppy at times here. He’s just 3lb higher than his last winning mark and his four best RPR’s have come on good or good to soft ground. One to note for a decent handicap chase when getting spring ground.
Cheers
John