Hi all,
The losing run is mounting up so let’s hope we can get off the cold list today. I’m going over the Irish Sea for today’s selections at Naas.
It’s a seven-race card at Naas with the two best races, unusually at the very beginning of the card
Naas
2:10 – A Grade 3 race gets the card underway. Just the six go to post for this year’s renewal, including last years winner Cadmium. Despite the small field it looks a more competitive race than the betting suggests.
Hardline & Cadmium head the market but I’m happy to take them on with Articulum & Castlegrace Paddy.
Articulum, last three form figures are FUF. The last of those non completions came when falling at the last fence to be jumped in a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown. He was still in contention at the time he fell. The drop back from 2m 5f to 2m shouldn’t be an issue and the 10-year-old has a race like this in him with a clear round.
Castlegrace Paddy was always likely to struggle on his first start for 277-days in the Grade 1 won by Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Racing Festival. The 9-year-old’s last five starts have been in Grade 1 company. A Grade 2 winner at Cork back in December he will appreciate the drop-in class and today’s much softer underfoot conditions.
1pt win – Articulum – 4/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Castlegrace Paddy – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:40 – A valuable Grade B novices handicap chase which has attracted a quality field of 16 runners. Castle Oliver comes into the race after wins at Fairyhouse & Down Royal. Step back to 2m 4f will suit and he goes well in the mud.
An Fraoch Mor, a winning hurdler on soft to heavy, built on the promise of his first start over the larger obstacles when winning a Navan novices’ chase over today’s distance. The 7-year-old makes his handicap debut off a very workable mark of 130.
Mormon, trained by Henry De Bromhead, who saddled last years winner, finished 2nd of 12 on just his second start over the larger obstacles. A mark of 131 looks fair for his handicap debut although heavy ground would be an unknown.
No issues with heavy ground for Countless Cathleen, both her career win have come on heavy including a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse 40-days ago. Steps from 2m for her handicap debut but should stay the extra distance.
Add in previous C&D winners Best Behaviour & Valdieu and you have the makings of a competitive race. Valdieu hails from the Noel Meade yard which seems to be coming into form after a very quiet start to the year. The ground will be more testing than it was 15-days ago but if the 7-year-old handles it, he won’t be far away.
1pt win – An Fraoch Mor – 11/2 @ Bet365
1pt win – Valdieu – 11/1 @ Bet365
3:40 – Pasley has finished runner-up on all three starts over hurdles. The cheekpieces return for his handicap hurdle debut and the 4-year-old did win a heavy ground on the flat last October. Sean Says made a winning handicap debut at Punchestown last month. The filly found plenty for pressure after the last day and there was plenty to like about how she held of the eventual runner-up. Up 8lb for that win but looks the value each way alternative to likely favourite Pasley.
1pt each way – Sean Says – 8/1 @ Paddy Power
4:40 – The second of two competitive handicap hurdles on the card. This one has attracted a field of 23.
Goodbye Someday was an eyecatcher at Leopardstown over Christmas. Sent off 6/1 on that occasion. He was still very much in contention, just behind the leader when hampered and carried out four from home. It was too early to say where he would have finished but given the market support he received; it suggests connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands. Must be on the shortlist.
Saol Iontach put in a career best effort when finishing runner-up to Sean Says at Punchestown two starts back. Ran poorly at Down Royal when sent off joint favourite but was found to be clinically abnormal after which explains why she ran so badly. The 7-year-old’s well being has to be taken on trust but a reproduction of her Punchestown form would put her right in the mix here.
Bythesametoken won a Navan handicap hurdle, off 3lb lower back in November and has since put in two solid placed efforts over C&D. The 6-year-old didn’t get the best of runs between the final two hurdles last time and with a clearer run would have finished closer to the eventual winner. Nudged up just 2lb and should find the softer ground more in his favour today.
Lord Erskine returns from a massive 579-day absence today. The 7-year-old was a progressive novice hurdler when last seen in action. Has won off a lay-off of 182-days in the past so there is hope that that he will be fit enough to do himself justice. and he has a very good record when soft or heavy is in the going description 4 wins from 8 runs +33.85.
1pt win – Goodbye Someday – 6/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way – Lord Erskine – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John