Hi all,
Well it’s not as busy on the betting front this weekend as it was last. The racing is interesting though.
At Newbury, Altior returns in what was formerly known Game Spirit Chase and a good win here will put him on course for another success in the Champion Chase. In the Denman Chase, previous Gold Cup winner Native River is another chaser returning to action in preparation for another tilt at the Gold Cup crown. In addition to those small field chases we have the Betfair Hurdle which is one of the most valuable races of its kind in the jumps racing calendar and it’s attracted a big field of 24 handicap hurdlers.
Over at Warwick it’s Grade 2 action with the latest running of the Kingmaker Chase with six declared runners and the winner of that race could head to the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. There’s also a competitive looking eight runner Class 2 handicap chase on Warwick’s seven race card.
Let’s begin Saturday’s betting preview at, where else but, Newbury. Despite having the Game Spirit & Denman Chase on the card It’s the handicaps that have attracted me from a betting perspective. I have looked at the Betfair Hurdle in some depth so all we need to do now is find the winner.
Newbury
A mostly dry week at Newbury means the going description has been changed to good from good to soft.
3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 2m ½ f
Looking at the trends which contain 10 winners from 198 runners 38 placed.
The last ten winners shared the following trends.
Age: 5yo to 6yo;
Last Time Out Placing: First Three;
Handicap Wins: 0 to 1
10 winners from 61 runners +57.25 19 placed
Good race for trends fans but as ever trends are always there to be broken. Indeed, the well fancied Not So Sleepy fails two of the three trends.
In my Monday’s Daily Punt column, I put up Flegmatik as a lively long shot at 25/1. He can big backed at 28/1 now which suggests he’s not as well fancied as I thought he would be. The drying ground shouldn’t be a problem. I think he’s open to more improvement and is on mark he can win off. Trainer Dan Skelton had the third in the race in 2018.
Not So Sleepy a good staying handicapper on the flat seems to have been rejuvenated by the switch to hurdles this season. Twice a winner at Ascot he 17lb higher than for his last win and at eight he does fail the age trend. He did us a favour last time, but I don’t think I will be with him this time.
Irish Raider Ciel De Neige, trained by Willie Mullins, comes over for the race. He’s suited by a big field as he showed when 3rd of 21 in last seasons Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. Going with good in the description is an unknown for the 5-year-old but he remains a strong contender last seasons Cheltenham Festival form.
Evan Williams saddles a couple of contenders in Mack The Man & Quoi De Neuf. The formerhas improved to win both his starts over hurdles this season and has sneaked into the race at the bottom of the weights. Up 8lb for his last win and today’s better ground will provide a new test for him. The latter was a close 4th in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle back in November and must be respected on that run, off 4lb higher but was bought down at the 4th in the race that Not So Sleepy won at Ascot. Won a good ground novice hurdle at Aintree in November 2018 but his best recent form has come on soft and heavy.
The mare Never Adapt isnow 2 wins from 4 starts over hurdles, pulled to hard when 3rd of 13 on her seasonal return at Cheltenham before winning in the style of a well handicapped horse at Kempton last month, despite being keen once more. Up 10lb for that win she needs to settle better if she’s to be able to fulfil her undoubted ability. At least the big field can help in this regard.
Philip Hobbs saddles Oakley & Gumball. Oakley is proving a consistent handicap hurdler. He’s improved on each of his three starts over hurdles, finishing third to Not So Sleepy at Ascot back in November before finishing a neck 2nd of 13 at Cheltenham on his last run 57-days ago with Never Adapt back in third. He gets 15lb from Not So Sleepy, for 2 ¼ lengths, today and he shouldn’t be too far away. Gumball finished runner-up in the Greatwood Hurdle and is now 6lb higher. Likes big field handicaps but must carry top-weight of 11-12 which make him vulnerable to any less exposed rivals.
Harambe won the Greatwood Hurdle on his last start 83-days ago and the 7-year-old could be capable of a bit more improvement, which he will need to find from a 7lb higher mark than in the Greatwood. Trainer Alan King had a welcome winner at Kempton on Friday and the drying ground isn’t a problem as he’s won on good and to good to soft in the past.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +35.5 4 placed 67% since 2014 in the race, including last year’s winner at Ascot. He saddles Stolen Silver & Sir Valentine in this year’s renewal. The first named looks the stables first choice and look to have an ideal profile for a winner of the race. Stolen Silver was an unlikely looking winner coming to the last but a strong finish on the run-in saw him snatch a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle on the line, at Haydock last month. A 5lb penalty for his Haydock win makes life tougher but he’s going the right-way and still looks a big player here.
Back in third, 2 lengths, in the Haydock race was Thebannerkingrebel. The 7-year-old was giving Stolen Silver 5lb that day and but for a mistake at the last could well have gone onto win. A big field handicap is new experience, but he gets 9lb from the winner today and is another sure to be there or thereabouts at the finish.
The quicker the ground the better for the Emma Lavelle trained Highly Prized. Has won his last two starts both on good ground and remains open to further progress, despite a 10lb rise in the weights. But I’m not sure the ground will have dried out sufficiently for the 7-year-old and he also fails the age trend for the race.
Mill Green is another who fails the age trend. The 8-year-old came with a strong finish to win at Sandown last time. No issues with the drying ground but shaped like he needs further on 2m on this sort of ground.
Nelson River was a useful juvenile hurdler last season, finishing 4th of 14 behind Pentland Hills in the Triumph Hurdle but his mark looks plenty high enough for his handicap debut.
Verdict: Novices like Thebannerkingrebel & Stolen Silver retain the potential to rate higher than their present marks. Highly Prized will enjoy the return to good ground. But how good will the ground be? Flegmatik looks the type who will appreciate a big field handicap scenario and has each way claims in a hot race. That set up also suits Irish raider Ciel De Neige who might just need further on this sort of ground. If the lightly raced mare Never Adapt can settle better today, she’s another very much in the mix.
0.5pts each way – Flegmatik – 28/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Ciel De Neige – 9/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Never Adapt -7/1 – Gen
4:10 – Once again the drying ground means a small field for this 2m 7 ½ f Class 3 novices handicap chase. Redzor will appreciate the return to a sounder surface. However,I’m going to take a chance here with the Nicky Henderson trained Post War. The 9-year-old returned from a mammoth 1051-day break here 42 days ago. He ran better than his final position suggests of 6th, beaten over 30 lengths, on his chase debut and was still in contention four out before a lack of fitness tolled and he weakened out of it. Should be sharper for that run and given his lightly raced profile could still rate higher than 123.
1pt win – Post War – 7/1 @Bet365
Warwick
Like at Newbury it’s been a dry week at Warwick which means the going has changed from soft to good to soft.
2:05 – The Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase. Nube Negra heads the ante post market. The 6-year-old is an improving chaser who will be suited by the drying ground and comes into the race with the best form after his runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown 63-days ago. The one to beat on form.
Moonlighter & Precious Cargo were first and second in a heavy ground Newbury novices handicap chase. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again, but the runner-up has arguably more scope for improvement and may be better on this sounder surface.
The one who could give the favourite most to do is Rouge Vif. The 6-year -old won a Market Rasen on his chase/seasonal debut back in October before being a shade disappointing when last of four upped to Grade 2 company at Cheltenham a month later. Showed that running was all wrong when running Global Citizen to 1 ½ f in a Kempton Grade 2 over Christmas. That was his first run since a wind-op which seemed to have done the trick. More progress likely and he should give his backers a good run for their money.
1pt win – Rouge Vif – 7/2 @Bet365
3:15 – A 2m 4f Class 2 handicap. At the time of writing the field size has held up, despite the going change, with 8 declared runners.
Belami Des Pictons won a novice chase here over 3m three years ago. Having his first start, since pulling up in February, in the Betvictor Gold Cup, he was hampered at the second and soon found himself at the back of the field. To his credit. He managed to work his way through the field to finish a never nearer 4th of 17 at the finish. The 9-year-old was to bad to be true at Kempton over Christmas when sent off the 2/1 favourite. Better expected and there’s a decent pot to be won with him if back to his best.
Two Taffs has returned from a 735-day break with two efforts over hurdles and last time in the Ladbroke Trophy. Drop in trip will suit and the good ground is in his favour but how much of his old ability does this former progressive handicap chaser retain.
Clondaw Castle is another for whom the drying ground is a positive. The 8-year-old needs respecting on his 1 ½ length second to Diego Du Charmill two starts back at Ascot, off 1lb higher. Stamina for trip still to be proved and the trainer is struggling for winners at the moment.
Gala Ball is a likeable handicap chaser who left a poor seasonal reappearance well behind when winning at Wincanton last month. Only up 2lb for that last win and interesting that trainer Philip Hobbs for the first time cheekpieces today.
Katpoli appreciated the return to going left-handed when winning at Wetherby 28-days ago. Up 4lb now but this is only the 5-year-old’s fifth start over the larger obstacles so he’s open to further improvement in the sphere.
King Of Realms ran better last time at Kempton than he had done on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot. A 3m handicap chase winner here on good ground, last March, off 1lb lower, he has to be respected of his handicap mark but the drop in trip could prove to sharp unless the first-time blinkers have the desired effect. Did win in the first visor last season which is a positive for the headgear change.
Verdict: Belami Des Pictonshas the ability to win this but may prefer softer. Despite the drop in trip I think we can see a good run from the first-time blinkered King Of Realms.
1pt win – King Of Realms – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Lingfield
2:20 – An interesting1m Class 2 handicap which has attracted a field of seven runners. A few inform all-weather horses: Kuwait Currency, Corazon Espinado, Silent Attack & Goring. But I’m taking them on with two horses returning to the track for the first time since September.
Zhui Feng on a losing run that dates to June 2018 but has run some decent enough races since then to think he retains ability. Has run well first time on all his last three seasonal reappearances so fitness should be fine. Not had many goes on the all-weather 1 win from 2 runs and finished 4th here. in the 2017 Winter Derby. Dropping down to a winnable mark and can go well.
Spirit Warning also has placed form when returning from a break and was in great form on the synthetics in the first half of 2019 with form figures 21141. The only time he was out of the first two was on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Should give a good account of himself here.
1pt win – Zhui Feng – 10/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Spirit Warning -9/1 @ Bet365
There’s some good racing both sides of Irish Sea on Sunday at Punchestown with the feature race being the BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase. Exeter’s seven race card is also a decent one for a Sunday with a Listed novices’ hurdle, a Veteran’s Series Qualifier chase and Pertemps Series Qualifier the main highlights. Mind you the latter meeting may not take place as it’s subject to a Sunday morning inspection with ‘Storm Ciara’ on the way.
Cheers
John