Hi all,
Another Cheltenham Festival ante-post betting preview and this the penultimate one in the series. With the final one coming either next week or possibly the week after.
Last time I put up a couple of selections for the Coral Cup & Grand Annual Handicap Chase. This week I have a couple of selections for the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, one for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, one for the Marsh Novices’ Chase, one for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, one for Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, a second selection for the Arkle Novices Chase and a dip into the Champion Hurdle betting.
It’s a lot but it could have contained two more but I’m still sitting on the fence regarding adding them. I now have 16 horses in my Cheltenham Festival ante post portfolio. I will post up the full list next time.
Cheltenham Festival 2020 Ante Post Selections
Tuesday March 10th
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Asterion Forlange, trained by Willie Mullins, is now three wins from three runs this season, last two wins have come since going hurdling. A ten-length winner on his hurdle debut a Naas last month. He was upped to Grade 1 company at the Dublin Racing Festival. The 6-year-old took the rise in class in his stride and he proved to strong for his six rivals, including the high class Easywork who came into the race unbeaten on his three starts over hurdles.
It was an impressive success by an inexperienced horse and there looks sure to be more improvement to come from him. The shortest of the horses I’m putting up for the portfolio but he’s worth putting in as I think he will win the opening race at the Cheltenham Festival and give his trainer a fifth win in the race in eight seasons.
For the stats fans it’s worth noting Willie Mullins’ record at the Cheltenham Festival with 5- & 6-year olds, that had won their last start at Leopardstown – 11 winners from 29 runners 38% +40.09 A/E 1.88 17 placed 57%. That’s a stat worth noting at this year’s festival more generally.
Asterion Forlange is plenty short enough but is my first 2pt ante post bet of this year’s festival.
2pts win – Asterion Forlange – 11/2 @ William Hill
Arkle Novices Chase
I put up Global Citizen up for the Arkle a couple of weeks ago. Today I’m adding a second in the shape of Brewin’upastorm, trained by Ollie Murphy, the 7-year-old was a 148 rated hurdler who finished 4th in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle before finishing runner-up in Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree in April.
Connections always expected the horse to be a better chaser than a hurdler and so it’s proved as he’s already a 150 rated over the larger obstacles after just two starts. We haven’t seen Brewin’upastorm since making two out of two over fences when winning a Taunton novice chase back in November. His absence from the track isn’t a negative as he’s 3 wins from 3 runs when returning from a 121+day layoff.
He needs to improve to win a race like the Arkle on what he’s shown so far but I fully expect him to rate much higher than a 150 horse.
I wouldn’t put anyone off going each way on the selection at a double figure price but I’m going on the ‘nose’ here.
2pts win – Brewin’upastorm – 10/1 – Gen
Champion Hurdle
Irish trainer Gavin Cromwell won last year’s Champion Hurdle and he has a lively outsider for this year’s renewal in Darver Star. All eyes were on Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Racing for the first time out of novice company. He ran a super race out running his 20/1 odds to finish runner-up to Honeysuckle, beaten just ½ length. The race was run in a good time, so the form is reliable and there was plenty to like about how the way he finished off his race.
He’s still a novice so could head to Cheltenham for one of the novice hurdles but surely connections will roll the dice and head for the Champion Hurdle on the back of this performance. He doesn’t have to improve much more to be a contender what’s an open looking race. The 33/1 available with William Hill looks a bit of value to me.
1pt each way – Darver Star – 33/1 @ William Hill (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
Wednesday March 11th
Ballymore Novices Hurdle
Top Irish Novice hurdler Envoi Allen is a short-priced ante post favourite for this Grade 1 novice hurdle run over 2m 5f. You can see why the 6-year-old heads the market as his form is the best on offer. However, there is one that appeals each way and it’s the Willie Mullins trained The Big Getaway.
The son of Getaway was beaten favourite on both his bumper starts (odds on twice) last season but finally got his head in front in a bumper when winning at Punchestown on his seasonal return in November. Sent off 11/10 for his hurdle debut at Leopardstown over Christmas he could only finish 4th of 15 to Cobbler’s Way. However, he was unlucky not to make a winning debut that day as it looked like he had just the better of the eventual winner coming to the last before making a bad mistake which he couldn’t recover from. It was his costly mistake.
The 6-year-old then demolished a big field of maidens by 17 lengths at Naas last month. He jumped notably well at Naas and seemed appreciate being given a prominent ride from the off.
The Big Getaway is big galloping type who has a huge stride and can gallop his rivals into the ground. Very much on the up with plenty of scope for improvement as you would expect from a horse that could make up into a top-class staying chaser in time. He has entries in both the Ballymore & Albert Bartlett but after his Naas success Willie Mullins indicated that the Ballymore was his likely target which I hope it will be.
Normally I look for 14/1 or bigger if I’m going each way but given Envoi Allen is set to be in the line up maybe an each way bet is the best way to go here.
1pt each way – The Big Getaway – 12/1 – Gen
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Now sponsored by Boodles. The Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, run in the memory of one jump racings great trainers, is a race for juveniles hurdlers run over 2m ½ f It’s race that was first staged in 2005 and is for horse who aren’t quite good enough for the Triumph Hurdle later in the week’ Last year’s renewal was by the 7/2 favourite Band Of Outlaws for trainer Joseph O’Brien.
Palladium, trained by Nicky Henderson, a useful maiden on the flat when trained by Martyn Meade, has done well since switching to hurdles. Runner-up on his hurdle debut at Warwick in December he built on that promise with two wins at Sandown. The latest of which came on Saturday. The 4-year-old was a bit keen so the big field of the Fred Winter should help him settle better. It was encouraging that after Saturday’s win that trainer Nicky Henderson said he was aiming the gelding at the race which is always a major positive when it comes to ante post betting. The trainer won the race in 2012 and had the runner-up in 2017 & 2018.
The 20/1 available with William Hill looks great value to me.
1pt each way – Palladium – 20/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Thursday March 12th
Marsh Novices’ Chase
The Marsh Chase, formerly known as the JLT, is shaping up to be one of the races of the meeting if the front five in the ante post betting all show up. Just ½ length separated Faugheen & Easy Game at Leopardstown on Sunday and I think the latter provides better value than his more illustrious stablemate. Besides those two, Willie Mullins also has Allaho in the field who many shrewd judges see as a likely winner of the race.
We also Mister Fisher who’s capable of more improvement, especially if he gets better ground than he’s been running on so far this winter.
Itchy Feet was a taking winner of Sandown’s feature race, the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase on Saturday.
The 6-year-old was only having his second start over fences. An easy winner at Leicester when making all. He was held up here off a good pace. Making nice headway coming to three out, he made a slight mistake on landing two out didn’t stop his momentum as he powered clear of his rivals after the last.
Granted hot favourite Laurina again failed to perform. She was never jumping or travelling at any stage and eventually was pulled up when well behind. But that shouldn’t take away from the winner performance.
It was Olly Murphy’s first Grade 1 winner and it won’t be his last, that’s for sure. Could he now go on and train a first Cheltenham Festival Winner? I think he can, and he may well have two.
2pts win – Itchy Feet – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Friday March 13th
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
This race now brings down the curtain on the Cheltenham Festival. It’s arguably one of the toughest puzzles of the four days but it’s an opportunity for the conditional jockeys to showcase their talent in the saddle.
First run in 2009 last year’s race produced an exciting finish with the Jonjo O’Neill Jnr ridden Early Doors just getting the better of Dallas Des Pictons on the run in.
I have two selections for the race. The first, Column Of Fire caught the eye at Leopardstown on Sunday. The 6-year-old has improved with each of his last four starts over hurdles. He broke his maiden tag at the sixth attempt over hurdles with a comfortable win of a Punchestown maiden last month, although probably should have done so on his previous start at Fairyhouse when falling two out.
It was a career best on Racing Post Ratings (RPR’s) from the Gordon Elliott trained gelding on his handicap hurdle debut when finishing 3rd of 28 to Treacysenniscorthy in the valuable 3m handicap hurdle on Sunday. He stayed the 3m mile well enough at Leopardstown but the drop back to 2m 4 ½ f shouldn’t inconvenience him. He’s continues on an upward curve and look and looks an ideal type for the race if he comes over in March. Owned by Gigginstown House Stud, I believe they are sponsoring this year’s race and their colours have a great record in the race 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +28 7 placed 70% +40.88 since 2013. The last two winners were also trained by Gordon Elliott.
The other I like for the race at this stage is Front View. Trained by Joseph O’Brien the 5-year-old is less experienced than Column Of Fire but brings undoubted potential to the race should he run. A winner of a bumper at last year’s Punchestown Festival. He took on Envoi Allen on his hurdle debut at Down Royal and wasn’t disgraced in finishing second to Ireland’s leading novice hurdler. Fifteen days later he won a Cork maiden in a decent time. The runner-up that day has since gone on to win a Listed bumper at Navan so the form looks solid enough. After his Cork success, Jockey J J Slevin described the gelding as having “a lot of ability. He has a lot of speed and he’s an exciting horse.
There’s every chance that Front View should stay 2m 4f and he might have gone a little under the radar for the Martin Pipe given we haven’t seen him on the track since mid-November. Given a mark of 134 by the Irish handicapper, hopefully he won’t get much more from the British one, if he doesn’t, he would be racing off an attractive mark should connections bring him over for the race. Trainer won this race last year with Early Doors who like Front View is owned by J P McManus.
2pts win – Column Of Fire – 10/1 – Gen
1pt each way – Front View – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John